Prediction Markets Just Got A Crypto Trading Desk: What Kalshi's Move Means - Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COI

Kalshi built its reputation letting users trade on elections, inflation prints, and Fed decisions. Now it wants to be where traders speculate on Bitcoin prices with leverage. The prediction market platform plans to launch perpetual futures tied to the prices of cryptocurrencies in the coming weeks, according to a Bloomberg report, citing a person familiar with the plans. The move marks the first time Kalshi will offer a product outside its core event contract business and it puts the company in direct competition with some of the biggest names in crypto. What happens when a platform built for betting on outcomes starts offering leveraged crypto trades? The answer matters for prediction market users, crypto traders, and anyone watching the future of financial derivatives in the United States. What Kalshi Actually Does Kalshi is a federally regulated prediction market. Its core product is event contracts, binary yes/no markets on real-world outcomes. Users can trade on whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates, whether inflation will exceed a target, or who will win a presidential election. Unlike a traditional brokerage, Kalshi users are not buying assets. They are pricing probabilities. That distinction matters. Kalshi's users are already traders in a meaningful sense -- they are assigning values to uncertain outcomes, managing positions, and taking on risk. The cognitive leap to crypto derivatives is shorter than it might appear. Bernstein recently estimated that prediction market volumes will grow from approximately $51 billion in 2025 to $1 trillion by 2030. Kalshi sits at the top of that market alongside Polymarket. The question its expansion answers is: what do you build when you've dominated a niche and the niche is about to go mainstream? What Are Perpetual Futures? A perpetual future or "perp", is a derivative contract that tracks the price of an underlying asset, typically a cryptocurrency, with no expiration date. Unlike a standard futures contract that settles on a fixed date, a perp stays open indefinitely. Traders pay or receive a funding rate -- a periodic fee that keeps the contract price anchored to the spot market, depending on whether they are long or short. The CFTC Opens the Door That regulatory signal is what makes Kalshi's expansion viable. Kalshi already holds multiple licenses from the CFTC and recently secured approval to offer margin trading, positioning it to enter the derivatives market ahead of competitors who lack the same regulatory infrastructure. For Kalshi, the CFTC relationship is not just a compliance checkbox, it is a structural moat. Offshore platforms cannot replicate it. Crypto-native exchanges are still working to obtain it. Why This Is a Strategic Leap Kalshi's existing event contracts are binary and episodic. A market opens, resolves, and closes. Perpetual futures are continuous, dynamic, and recur daily. The revenue model, the user behavior, and the risk profile are fundamentally different. The convergence reflects a deeper truth: prediction markets and perpetual futures are both ultimately markets for forecasting. One prices the probability of discrete events; the other prices continuous expectations about asset values. The underlying logic is identical. Polymarket responded the same day Kalshi's plans were reported, posting to X that "perps are coming" to the platform, showing leveraged trading on crypto, equities including Nvidia and Coinbase, gold, and other assets at up to 10x leverage. The race is already on. The Competitive Landscape Kalshi's edge is regulatory legitimacy and a user base that already thinks in probabilistic terms. Its challenge is liquidity -- competing with entrenched offshore platforms on spreads and depth will take time, regardless of regulatory advantage. The Risk Investors Should Understand Perpetual futures are not prediction market event contracts. They carry liquidation risk. Leveraged positions can be wiped out rapidly in volatile markets. Funding rates can work against a position over time. For users migrating from Kalshi's event markets without derivatives experience, the learning curve is steep and the downside is real. Expanded access to regulated derivatives is a net positive for U.S. markets. Expanded access without financial literacy is a risk that regulators and platforms alike will need to manage carefully. The Bottom Line Image credit: Author Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga's reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy. Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs To add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.