Market Analysis: UAE's withdrawal from OPEC raises concerns about the alliance's collapse as other countries may follow suit.

The UAE's sudden decision to withdraw from OPEC exposes cracks within the oil-producing alliance. Andy Lipow, president of Odaily Oil Associates, stated, "If countries that adhere to quotas become fed up with those that don't, we could see more withdrawals, potentially rendering OPEC meaningless." Qatar, Ecuador, and Angola have already withdrawn from the organization, citing dissatisfaction with quotas or shifts in national priorities. Lipow added, "The UAE is neither the first nor likely the last." Analysts point out that some countries dissatisfied with OPEC+ restrictions may consider abandoning their membership. Kpler's chief oil analyst, Matt Smith, listed Kazakhstan as a key candidate, stating, "Kazakhstan has been significantly overproducing last year, so they may see this as an opportunity to withdraw from the organization." Smith added that Nigeria, Africa's largest crude oil producer, is also worth watching. Nigeria is increasingly focusing on domestic refining, reducing its reliance on export markets and potentially weakening its incentive to remain bound by quotas. Market observers also suggest that Venezuela is another possibility. With production recovering faster than expected and a potentially more US-leaning political environment, the country may seek greater flexibility. (Jinshi)