As Bitcoin (BTC) approaches the $80,000 mark, it is facing strong attacks from both the macroeconomic and technical aspects.
According to the latest market analysis , although Bitcoin has barely managed to stay above the flat line recently, any strong push towards $80,000 is highly likely to hit a wall built by "short-term profit-taking." Luke Deans, senior research assistant at Bitwise, points out that the cost basis of short-term holders is right around $80,000. Once the price breaks through this level, it is very likely to induce these investors to sell and cash out, thereby limiting the rise.
Oil prices surge to $110; magnesium and the Fed diverge significantly; strong macroeconomic headwinds strike.
Beyond technical headwinds, the deteriorating overall economic environment has left bulls treading on thin ice. The release of US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data comes at a time when the global energy market is already fragile due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has surged to a high of $110 , and high oil prices, coupled with rising US Treasury yields, are jointly pressuring risk assets.
To make matters worse, the Federal Reserve (Fed) took a stand. While the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, it received an unusually large number of dissenting votes (the most since 1992), highlighting a serious division within policymakers regarding whether to resume easing policies and further exacerbating market uncertainty.
Derivatives margin call wipes out 500 million magnesium! Whale bets plunge to 65,000.
The escalating macroeconomic headwinds are already directly reflected in the "risk aversion" sentiment in the derivatives market:
- Signs of capital flight: Open interest (OI) in the futures market fell more than 2% to $119 billion in 24 hours, but trading volume surged 26% to $208 billion. This combination typically indicates that a large number of positions are being closed, and capital is fleeing the market.
- The bulls suffered a bloodbath: more than $500 million in leveraged positions across the network were liquidated, the vast majority of which were long positions, indicating that the bulls were caught off guard by this weakness caused by rising US Treasury yields.
- Put Options: According to Amberdata data, a massive put spread strategy covering strike prices of $72,000 and $65,000 has emerged in block trades. This suggests that a whale is betting that Bitcoin will fall back to $65,000 or lower.
It's worth noting that Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) has fallen to 41%, a new low since January 29th. Analysts warn that the market seems to have become "desensitized" to negative macroeconomic news, with low liquidity and a lack of directional conviction, which is often a harbinger of the next wave of sharp fluctuations. Meanwhile, Altcoin have a correlation of 97% with Bitcoin, meaning they are currently essentially "leveraged Bitcoin trading," and their decline could be even more severe.
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