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ToggleBitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a crucial structural reversal. According to a recent report from blockchain data analytics firm Glassnode, bulls have regained control of the market, with Bitcoin not only breaking through $80,000 but also showing strong signs of a bottoming out and rebound.
Say goodbye to the trough! Break through the average price and short-term holders' costs.
The report points out that Bitcoin has broken through two key on-chain barriers in its recent strong rally: the True Market Mean (approximately $78,200) and the short-term holder cost base (approximately $79,100) .
This means that Bitcoin has successfully surpassed both the total active trading supply over the past 155 days and the average acquisition price of recent buyers in a single wave. Glassnode suggests that if the price can stabilize above these two levels in the coming week, the "deep value regime" that has been in place since early February 2026 will become one of the shortest troughs in Bitcoin's history.
The market's focus has now shifted to the Active Realized Price at $85,200 , which will be the next major structural resistance level that bulls must face.
Long-term holders achieved modest profits, and ETF buying rebounded strongly.
In terms of profitability, all indicators have turned positive. The 30-day moving average of net realized profit and loss has turned positive, reaching 0.003% of market capitalization.
Although "long-term holders (LTH)" who have held their shares for more than a year have begun to take profits at higher prices, with current daily realized profits of approximately $180 million, this profit-taking still appears quite "mild and restrained" compared to the frenzied selling that often exceeded $1 billion per day at the peak of this cycle.
Even more encouraging is the movement of off-exchange funds. After a slump from the end of 2025 to the beginning of 2026, the 30-day net inflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs has turned positive sharply , indicating that the appetite of traditional institutional investors is rapidly recovering, which is a strong tailwind supporting the spot market's return to $80,000.
Derivatives harbor hidden dangers: negative funding rates and the Gamma bomb.
While the spot market is booming, the derivatives market presents a starkly different atmosphere of tension, which is often the breeding ground for further price surges:
- Bearish Resistance (Negative Funding Rates): Despite a significant price rebound, funding rates for perpetual contracts have remained negative. This indicates that short positions still dominate, with traders willing to pay fees to maintain their short exposure. This phenomenon of "climbing the wall of worry" suggests significant potential for a short squeeze in the market.
- Put option demand is waning: The options skew is converging toward neutral, particularly with the front-end (1-week) skew approaching zero, indicating that traders' demand for downside protection (buy put) is rapidly diminishing, and they are instead embracing directional bullish positions.
- $2 billion in short Gamma exposure: Current Gamma positioning indicates nearly $2 billion in short Gamma exposure near the strike price of $82,000 . As prices approach this area, dealers will be forced to hedge by "buying high and selling low," a feedback loop that can easily trigger sharp price fluctuations and overbought conditions.
Glassnode concludes that Bitcoin's current trend possesses strong constructive and bullish momentum, but the market is about to enter a highly price-sensitive "reaction period." For a more sustained bull market to materialize, the market must rely on continued spot buying to absorb the currently high overall market stop-loss selling pressure ($479 million daily).
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Analyst: Bitcoin saw heavy trading at $78,000! The real resistance level is at $87,000.
