According to BlockBeats, on May 7th, the current goal for both the US and Iran is a memorandum of understanding, not a comprehensive peace agreement. This indicates that differences remain between the two sides and suggests that any agreement at this stage would be a transitional step. The US government appears to be changing its negotiating strategy, simplifying the agenda and addressing the easier issues first, while resolving the most contentious ones at a later stage.
According to PolyBeats , on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "the US and Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement" is 34% before May 15, 47% before May 31, and 59% before June 30.
