Chainfeeds Summary:
US stocks are booming, with some opportunities in the crypto space.
Article source:
https://www.techflowpost.com/zh-CN/article/31511
Article Author:
TechFlow TechFlow
Opinion:
TechFlow TechFlow: Let's first look at the macro background. According to Bitget data, as of May 9th, the BTC dominance rate rose to 60.3%, a new high for 2026; while Blockchaincenter's altcoin season index is only around 35, far below the 75 threshold required to confirm an altcoin season, indicating that the market as a whole is still in a typical "Bitcoin season." However, some structural changes have begun to emerge. The BTC dominance rate has been consolidating in the 58%-60% range for nearly eight months, and the RSI has also shown signs of stagnation. At the same time, analyst el_crypto_prof on X points out that the current weekly structure of the total market capitalization of Altcoin(excluding BTC) is highly similar to the altcoin seasons before their start in 2016-2017 and 2020-2021. Back then, both periods saw high BTC dominance rates and low altcoin season indices, but ultimately, large-scale altcoin rallies occurred 2 to 6 months later. It was precisely during this phase, when the macroeconomic situation was still uncertain and certain assets were leading the charge, that SUI and TON each exhibited independent price movements. TON's surge had a clear trigger. On May 4th, Telegram founder Pavel Durov announced on X that Telegram would replace the TON Foundation as the largest validator and core driver of the TON network. This event is of immense historical significance. In 2020, Telegram was forced to withdraw from the TON project due to SEC regulatory pressure, returning over $1.2 billion in funding; subsequently, the TON Foundation operated independently as a community for five years. Now, Durov has not only returned but also personally staked approximately 2.2 million TON and rebranded ton.org with the theme "MTONGA (Make TON Great Again)". Simultaneously, TON has also undergone intensive technical upgrades. Catchain 2.0, launched on April 9th, reduced block time from 2.5 seconds to 400 milliseconds, increasing throughput by approximately 10 times; subsequently, transaction fees dropped from approximately $0.0023 to $0.0005, a 6-fold decrease. Institutional investors followed suit, with Rakuten Wallet launching TON spot trading and CoinShares introducing a TON staking ETP. Market sentiment quickly ignited, with TON rising from approximately $1.35 to nearly $2.9 within three days, an increase of over 100%. Compared to TON's "founder's return" narrative, SUI's rise is more driven by institutional investors. In the past month, SUI has almost all three elements of institutional entry: spot ETFs, CME futures, and large-scale staking by listed companies. In late February, several institutions, including 21Shares, Canary, and Grayscale, launched SUI-related ETFs. On May 4th, CME officially launched SUI futures contracts. On May 9th, Nasdaq-listed SUI Group Holdings announced that it would convert all 108.7 million SUI tokens (approximately 2.7% of the circulating supply) into native collateral. In addition, SUI is expanding into real-world payment scenarios. Nigerian fintech company Paga announced a deep partnership with SUI, planning to use its native stablecoin USDSUI to provide users with USD accounts and tokenized bond services. Paga's transaction volume reached $11 billion in 2025. However, from an overall market perspective, the true altcoin season has not yet arrived. Historically, the BTC dominance rate needs to fall below 54%, and the altcoin season index needs to rise above 75 to signify the start of a full-scale rotation. Currently, it seems more like leading projects are initiating the trend with independent catalysts, while the broader altcoin market is still awaiting confirmation.
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