#BTC closed positive again on the 4-hour chart after a sharp drop, and is currently back near the resistance level of 81.6K. Structurally, it is still in a high-level consolidation phase, with the market repeatedly pulling in and out without a clear direction. However, the longer this sideways movement lasts, the stronger the subsequent breakout tends to be. Once key support levels are effectively broken, the price could easily experience a rapid decline.
In the short term, the key focus remains on the resistance around 81.6K, especially whether the four-hour closing price can truly hold above this level. If a breakout fails to occur, a pullback tonight is possible. The first support level is still 79-80K, with further support around 78K. If the pullback continues, the medium-term support will shift down to 76K, while the true major support zone remains at 70-72K.
#ETH's rebound today was slightly stronger, but it remains fundamentally weak, more like a passive correction following BTC's pullback. This seemingly resilient trend is actually setting the stage for a subsequent BTC decline. Short-term resistance has begun around 2300, with 2320 remaining a key intraday resistance level. If this level cannot be broken effectively, the overall trend remains towards a rise followed by a fall.
The 2260 level remains the most crucial support level. Yesterday's test and subsequent rapid rebound indicate continued support at this level; however, a break below this level would likely lead to a further pullback to the 2180 area. Deeper, medium- to long-term buying opportunities remain in the 2030-2120 range. Overall, even if BTC experiences a correction, ETH's decline may not be as dramatic as the market fears, and the probability of a truly extreme bearish move below 1800 is not high.
The core message at this stage remains the same: short-term volatility is slightly bearish, but the medium-term structure is intact. Don't let emotions dictate your buying or selling decisions; patiently wait for key entry points to more easily acquire truly cost-effective shares.
In the current bearish macroeconomic environment, the altcoin market has not seen a broad-based rally. Funds are clearly concentrating on a few sectors with compelling narratives, liquidity, and institutional attention, indicating the market is entering a phase of "the strong getting stronger and the weak being eliminated." Sectors like RWA, AI computing power, and leading public chains, while showing recent strong performance, have already experienced significant short-term gains, leading to increasing profit-taking at higher levels and accumulating downward pressure.
Leading RWA coins, such as ONDO, have nearly doubled since the beginning of the month, but have recently shown signs of a pullback with high trading volume. Once market sentiment weakens, these overvalued, strong-performing coins are prone to concentrated profit-taking, leading to a rapid decline. Meanwhile, many small- and mid-cap altcoins are still experiencing liquidity depletion, lacking buying support, and are likely to fall into a gradual decline after reaching high levels with decreasing volume.
The recent catch-up rally in mainstream cryptocurrencies has performed well overall, with significant fund rotation from DOGE and SOL to BNB.
BNB's recent surge started in the 640-650 range and is now nearing its target area. Taking some short-term profits is a reasonable choice, while the remaining position should be used to observe whether it can rise further.
XRP is currently focused on the support level around 1.30. As long as this level holds, the overall structure remains relatively stable. However, if this level is breached, the price may retrace further to lower levels, so position management remains crucial.
HYPE has already completed one round of upward movement, and the focus now is on the second opportunity after a pullback; TAO's overall trend remains strong, but for those with a medium- to long-term investment strategy, it is more appropriate to wait for a deeper pullback before considering buying back in.
As for SOL , it remains one of the most structurally sound mainstream cryptocurrencies. Compared to both BTC and ETH, it is significantly more resilient to price drops, and its funding support is more stable. The previously mentioned resistance level of $98 has proven effective. If it can break through and hold above this level with significant volume, the price will likely continue to rise, potentially challenging even higher levels in the next phase.
Overall, we're no longer in a phase of blindly buying counterfeit products; instead, we need to carefully select sectors and leading companies. Those that can consistently perform strongly are often core assets that have both capital and sound fundamentals, and can withstand market fluctuations.
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; caution is advised when entering the market. This is just my personal opinion, not advice, and is for sharing purposes only.
Contact me via WeChat: Mixm5688 or QQ: 2234099968
