Anthropic has just published a study on the competition between the US and China in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). According to the study, the company believes that the US could maintain a lead of 12 to 24 months over China if it implements appropriate policies.
The United States and China are fiercely competing for leadership in AI development. However, Anthropic emphasizes that the U.S. and its allies need to maintain their advantage over the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Anthropic urges Washington to consolidate its AI advantage within 12-24 months.
The report indicates that while export controls have helped the U.S. maintain its lead for the time being, it is not enough .
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The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) does not yet have the capacity to domestically produce sufficient quantities of high-tech chips, nor can it legally import them from abroad.
However, AI research labs in China have maintained their competitiveness through two main methods. Firstly, through illegal or circumvented approaches to acquiring computing power, such as smuggling AI chips into China or utilizing data centers located overseas.
The second method involves unauthorized access to AI models, including carrying out distillation attacks on advanced US models to exploit and accelerate domestic AI research and development.
“But if the U.S. and its allies act now to address both of these issues, maintaining a 12-24 month lead in advanced AI technology is entirely possible. Maintaining this lead until 2028 would be an enormous advantage,” Anthropic wrote . “However, the opportunity to secure this will not last forever.”
The report cites a study that estimates the U.S. would possess 11 times the computing power of China if Washington tightened controls on the CCP's access to U.S. computing resources.
Anthropic has put forward three key policy recommendations to help democratic nations maintain their leading position in the field of AI.
- Tightening controls on chip smuggling, blocking access to foreign data and semiconductor manufacturing equipment are measures aimed at reducing the limits of China's computing power.
- To clarify legally that distillation attacks are illegal, and to enhance the capacity of research laboratories in the US to prevent and detect such actions.
- Promoting the global use of trusted AI hardware and AI models from the US aims to limit the CCP's access to key markets.
Anthropic warns that AI could soon become powerful enough to “control citizens on an unprecedented scale,” and this could alter the global balance of power.
The company also stated that because AI capabilities are developing so rapidly , we only have a short time to establish regulations and conditions to control this competition before the risks materialize.
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