Original article | Odaily Odaily( @OdailyChina )
Author｜Azuma ( @azuma_eth )
Remember Leopold Aschenbrenner? He's the 24-year-old "AI stock market genius" we introduced in our article " SBF's Little Brother Turns 225 Million into 5.5 Billion in One Year ".
Leopold Aschenbrenner joined FTX's Future Fund in 2022 and remained with the team until FTX's collapse. In 2024, Aschenbrenner wrote a 165-page mega-paper, "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead," and founded the fund of the same name, Situational Awareness LP, in the same year, serving as its chief investment officer.
Situational Awareness LP focuses on investment opportunities across the AI industry chain. In Q4 2024, the fund's publicly disclosed holdings were "only" $225 million, but in its Q4 2025 holdings disclosure released in February of this year, this figure had skyrocketed to $5.5 billion. This explosive investment return has greatly enhanced the reputation of Leopold Aschenbrenner and Situational Awareness LP, making them one of the most watched AI investment trends online.
Now, Situational Awareness LP is facing a crucial window to disclose its holdings (13F). Since last week, the entire internet has been scrambling to see if the fund will provide its current strategy for investing in AI, but as of this writing, Situational Awareness LP has yet to release its disclosure.
The so-called 13F is a quarterly disclosure document required by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for funds with assets under management exceeding $100 million. The SEC requires that eligible funds submit this document within 45 days of the end of each calendar quarter. The document must highlight the fund's holdings of U.S. listed stocks, call/put options, convertible bonds, and certain ETFs at the end of the previous quarter.
It is now May 18th, three days after the May 15th deadline for disclosure of Q1 2026. In the past few days, many sovereign wealth funds, university endowment funds and traditional financial institutions have disclosed their Q1 13F holdings reports, but the market has not yet received the disclosure from Situational Awareness LP.
Based on various market analyses, the following three scenarios may have affected the progress of Situational Awareness LP's 13F disclosure.
The first scenario is that Situational Awareness LP may have submitted its documents to the SEC after 5:30 PM on May 15th. Since that day happened to be a Friday, the SEC was unable to process them in time, so the documents would not be published on the SEC's website until the following Monday, after which the public would be able to see them.
This is also the prevailing view in the market at present. If this is the case, we expect to see the 13F filing for Situational Awareness LP later today (or at the latest tomorrow).
The second scenario involves Situational Awareness LP applying to the SEC for confidential treatment. This is a legal mechanism provided by the SEC that allows large funds to delay disclosing information about their ongoing portfolio construction, sometimes for up to a year.
Generally, funds request confidentiality disclosure for only one reason—they are building a position large enough that, if the market knew in advance, it would drive prices in their favor before they completed the acquisition. If this is indeed the case, it means Leopold Aschenbrenner is quietly accumulating a significant asset and doesn't want the market to know for the time being. This undoubtedly deserves more attention from the market.
The third scenario is highly unlikely: Situational Awareness LP significantly reduced its holdings in the past quarter , bringing its total holdings below the 13F disclosure threshold (US$100 million). However, given that the fund held US$5.5 billion last quarter, this scenario is extremely improbable.
In short, we just need to wait patiently for another 1 to 2 days to find out the real reason for the delay in Situational Awareness LP's disclosure.
If it's the first scenario, we will provide an interpretation of the position changes as soon as the 13F report is released; if it's the second reason, the entire internet will be really on edge—what exactly is Leopold Aschenbrenner hoarding? That will be the moment for all the top investigators to shine.
