Bitcoin is entering a phase where many analysts are fiercely debating its future trend. While some experts warn that BTC could repeat the historical crashes that occurred in May, others argue that the market is now very different thanks to institutional money and spot ETFs.
Bitcoin has often fallen sharply during midterm election years.
According to Cointelegraph, in 2018 and 2022 — both midterm election years in the US — Bitcoin experienced significant price drops in May.
Specifically:
- In 2018, BTC decreased by approximately 30%.
- In 2022, Bitcoin plummeted nearly 70%.
Analyst Merlijn Enkelaar suggests this pattern could repeat in 2026. He warns that Bitcoin could even fall to the $33,000 range if selling pressure continues to increase.
Meanwhile, Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson believes that if BTC continues to trade below $78,000, the market could enter a new "capitulation" phase — a period of widespread panic selling by investors.
Not everyone is pessimistic.
However, many experts believe that a direct comparison with older cycles may not be entirely accurate.
Jeff Ko, head of analysis at CoinEx , said that previous major crashes stemmed from special events such as the Mt. Gox collapse, China's crackdown on ICOs, the Fed's sharp interest rate hikes, and the collapses of Terra and FTX.
According to him, the market has now changed significantly thanks to: Bitcoin spot ETFs, institutional capital flows, listed companies accumulating BTC, and legal progress from the CLARITY Act.
Jeff Ko believes that the current cycle is unlikely to experience a sharp 70%–80% drop like in previous periods.
The $76,000 mark is becoming a crucial area.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe believes the $76,000 level is currently a crucial support level for Bitcoin in the short term.
If BTC loses this level, selling pressure could continue to increase and drag the market lower.
Conversely, if Bitcoin can hold the $76,000–$78,000 range and recover, it still has a chance to maintain an upward trend in the medium term.
The market is in a sensitive phase.
Currently, Bitcoin is caught between two opposing viewpoints: one side fears a repeat of the "May crash," while the other believes that ETFs and institutional money flows have altered the market structure.
In the short term, the $76,000–$78,000 range is XEM a crucial area that will determine the sentiment of the entire crypto market for the remainder of May.
