According to BlockBeats, on May 25, international oil prices fell sharply at the opening due to expectations that a US-Iran agreement was nearing completion. As of press time, both WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures had fallen by more than 5%. Previously, Trump stated that the US-Iran negotiations were "getting closer" to an agreement, although he later emphasized that the agreement was "not yet fully agreed upon," but the market had already begun trading in expectations of easing geopolitical risks.
Analysts point out that the core reason driving down oil prices is market expectations that the Strait of Hormuz will gradually return to normal traffic. Iran has disclosed that 33 ships, including oil tankers, have successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, indicating a significant improvement in shipping conditions compared to before.
Longzhong Information analyst Wu Yan said that the initial formation of the US-Iran peace agreement has released a long-awaited positive signal to the market; while Jinlianchuang analyst Han Zhengji believes that if the agreement is finally implemented, international oil prices will still have room to fall further as the geopolitical premium fades, but if the situation deteriorates again, oil prices may also rebound rapidly.
However, several analysts emphasized that a supply gap still exists in the global crude oil market. As production in many Gulf countries has not yet returned to normal, and with the Northern Hemisphere approaching its peak summer fuel consumption season, oil prices are likely to remain volatile at high levels in the short term. Wu Yan predicts that Brent crude oil prices will likely trade between $87 and $110 per barrel from June to August.
