This week, we continue with our consistent structured analysis framework, focusing on Bitcoin and HYPE as the two main targets. We break down the current trend from multiple timeframes, analyze the bullish and bearish battles at key resistance and support levels, and formulate specific and actionable operational plans accordingly.
Last week's short position successfully realized a 2.78% profit, once again validating the trading logic of "signal-driven, strict discipline." However, a single profit never guarantees a correct direction—the market always holds the potential to exceed expectations.
The key variable this week remains the struggle between the $78,500-$79,500 resistance zone and the $73,500-$75,000 support zone. The market will decide the outcome.
Summary of key trading insights this week:
• BTC multi-timeframe price structure analysis. (See Part 1 for details)
• BTC Market Forecast for This Week and Medium- to Short-Term Trading Strategies. (See Part Two for details)
• HYPE hourly chart trend structure analysis. (See Part 3 for details)
• HYPE Market Forecast and Short-Term Trading Strategy for This Week. (See Part Four for details)
Last week's trading strategy and core viewpoints have been validated by the market:
• BTC Short-Term Trading Results: Bitcoin completed a short-term short position (1x leverage) last week, successfully realizing a profit of approximately 2.78%. (See Table 1 for details)
• BTC Price Movement Prediction Verified: In last week's article, we pointed out that if the price effectively broke below the support zone of $78,500-$79,500, it would test the support level around $75,000. Current market movements have validated our previous prediction.
I. Multi-timeframe trend structure analysis of Bitcoin
1. BTC Daily Chart Chart Structure Analysis
Bitcoin - Daily Candlestick Chart:
Figure 1
• As shown in Figure 1, since establishing a temporary low near $60,000 on February 6, 2026, Bitcoin's daily chart has constructed and maintained a clearly structured upward channel: its lower rail is formed by connecting the two lows on February 6 and March 29, while the upper rail is formed by drawing a straight line parallel to the lower rail through the high on March 17.
• In our weekly review on April 27th, we pointed out that " the current price is facing dual resistance from the upper channel line and the $79,500 to $80,600 resistance zone, and a breakthrough is expected to be difficult." Subsequent market movements validated this assessment. After nearly 20 days of struggle between bulls and bears, although a new high of $82,850 was reached on May 6th, the price failed to effectively break through the resistance zone, and subsequently began to fluctuate and decline.
• From the current structure, the price has retraced from near the upper channel line to the middle channel line area . If the price fails to find effective support near the middle channel line and resume its upward trend, the probability of it seeking support at the lower channel line is increasing.
2. In-depth analysis of BTC hourly chart structure
Bitcoin 4-hour candlestick chart
Figure 2
As shown in Figure 2, the correction has continued since the high of $82,850 on May 6.
• On the 4-hour chart, it can be subdivided into an 8-segment adjustment structure from “segment 27-28” to “segment 34-35”; Center D: Since the three segments 28-29, 29-30, and 30-31 overlap, they constitute Center D.
• From the 4-hour chart structure, the 34-35 segment is about to rebound to the $78,500-$79,500 area. If it rebounds to this area and then falls back under pressure, failing to form a valid breakout, the market will most likely continue its current consolidation pattern and retest the core support zone of $73,500-$75,000.
II. Bitcoin Market Forecast and Trading Strategies for This Week
1. BTC price trend prediction for this week:
This week's key takeaway: Focus on the outcome of the battle between bulls and bears over the $78,500-$79,500 resistance zone and the $73,500-$75,000 support zone.
2. Core pressure level:
• First resistance zone: $78,500 to $79,500 (near the upper and lower rails of the two consolidation zones)
• Second resistance zone: $83,500 to $84,500 (the area where previous bullish and bearish trading was concentrated)
3. Core support level:
• First support level: $73,500–$75,000 area (previous key support level)
• Second support level: $69,500–$70,500 area (previous key support level)
4. This week's trading strategy (excluding the impact of unexpected news)
① Medium-term strategy:
Bitcoin Daily Candlestick Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)
Figure 3
Position monitoring model: As shown in Figure 3, based on the trading rules, the medium-term direction of the market is not yet clear, and the medium-term strategy for this week is to remain in cash and observe.
② Short-term strategy: Use 30% of your position, set a stop-loss point, and look for opportunities to profit from price differences based on support and resistance levels. (Use 30-minute/60-minute charts as the trading timeframe).
③ In short-term trading, in order to dynamically respond to complex market changes, we prepare two specific operational plans , A and B, in advance.
• Option A : Rebound pressure exists, sell short on short .
• Opening a position: When the price rebounds to the $78,500-$79,500 range and encounters resistance, and combined with the top signal from the quantitative model, a short position of less than 30% can be established.
• Risk control: The initial stop-loss level is set above $80,600.
• Closing positions: When the price adjusts to near a key support level and in conjunction with model signals, positions can be gradually liquidated to realize profits.
• Option B: If the support level is broken, short .
• Opening a position: When the price breaks below the support level of $73,500 to $75,000 and the model shows a top signal, a short position of less than 30% can be established.
• Risk control: The initial stop loss is set above $76,500.
• Closing positions: When the price falls to a key support level and combined with model signals, positions can be gradually liquidated to realize profits.
III. HYPE Trend Structure Analysis
HYPE_4-hour candlestick chart
Figure 4
1. As shown in Figure 4, the upward trend of HYPE from the low of $38.14 on May 14 can be divided into five segments on the 4-hour chart: 40-41, 41-42, 42-43, 43-44, and 44-45.
2. The self-built "spread trading model" shows that the top warning signal (white dot) has been triggered near the endpoint 45.
3. From the perspective of the "kinetic energy model", the upward momentum of the upward segment (44-45) has weakened around $65.
4. If the price forms a momentum top divergence at the "endpoint 45" position, and is superimposed with the top warning signal of the "spread trading model", the two will resonate, and the probability of the price forming a short-term high at this point will greatly increase.
IV. HYPE Market Forecast and Short-Term Trading Strategy for This Week
1. HYPE Market Trend Forecast for This Week:
This week's key takeaways from HYPE:
• Observe whether “Endpoint 45” can form a short-term high since the rise on May 14.
• If a short-term high is formed, there will be a short-term long opportunity after the price retraces to a key support area (e.g., $47.5 to $50) and a clear stabilization signal appears.
2. HYPE's short-term trading strategy for this week: (Long)
Currently, the strategy should be "avoid blindly chasing rallies and buy on long." If the price retraces to the $47.5 to $50 range and shows signs of stabilization, and this is combined with bottom signals triggered by the two models, a small long position can be considered. The position size must be controlled below 30%, and stop-loss discipline must be strictly adhered to.
V. Operation Review
1. Review of short-term trading: (See Table 1)
We strictly followed the operational plan and, based on the trading signals generated by our self-developed "spread trading model" and "momentum quantification model," completed a short-term (short) trade last week, with a profit of 2.78%.
① Summary of Bitcoin short-term trading details: (leverage * 1x)
Table 1
② Short-term trading review: (See Figure 6)
• Opening position strategy:
a) When the price rebounds to around $78,500 and encounters resistance and shows signs of pressure, the candlestick pattern forms a bearish "top reversal" pattern.
b. The "spread trading model" triggers a top warning signal (white dot), and the "momentum quantification model" forms a momentum top divergence signal.
Therefore, we established a 30% short position at $77,782.
• Closing position strategy:
a) When the price of the coin falls to around $75,000 and stops falling, the candlestick pattern forms a "bottom reversal" signal;
b. The “spread trading model” triggers a strong bottom warning signal (red dot + white dot) and forms a bottom resonance signal with the “momentum quantification model”.
Therefore, we liquidated all our positions around $75,616.
• Summary: This transaction resulted in a profit of approximately 2.78%.
BTC 30-minute candlestick chart: (Momentum-based model + Spread trading model)
Figure 5 (Short-term trading illustration)
VI. Special Note:
1. When opening a position: immediately set the initial stop-loss level.
2. When the profit reaches 1%, move the stop loss to the opening cost price (break-even point) to ensure the safety of the principal.
3. When the profit reaches 2%, move the stop loss to the position where the profit is 1%.
4. Continuous monitoring: For every additional 1% profit in the coin price thereafter, the stop loss level will be moved by 1% accordingly, dynamically protecting and locking the loss.
Financial markets are constantly changing, and all market analysis and trading strategies must be dynamically adjusted. All views, analytical models, and operational strategies presented in this article are derived from personal technical analysis and are for personal trading journal use only. They do not constitute any investment advice or basis for action. The market is risky; invest with caution. Please do not make decisions based on this information.
