This week, the crypto market experienced its most dramatic weekly decline since the FTX crash in November 2022. BTC fell from approximately $72,700 in early June to a low of $61,100 on June 5th, a weekly drop of about 17%–20%; ETH also fell by about 22%, currently priced at around $1,682, a decline of about 66% from its all-time high.

Article author and source: BitMart

I. Macroeconomics and Traditional Financial Markets

1. Better-than-expected non-farm payrolls data triggers market turmoil: Expectations of interest rate cuts reverse, and pricing in interest rate hikes intensifies.

The biggest macroeconomic variable this week is the US May non-farm payroll data. 172,000 new jobs were added, far exceeding market expectations of 85,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, indicating the labor market remains resilient. Strong employment significantly cooled expectations for a Fed rate cut this year, and the market began to re-price the risk of rate hikes. Goldman Sachs also postponed its rate cut expectations to 2027. After the data release, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.55%, a two-week high; the Nasdaq fell sharply by 4.2% in a single day, with technology stocks and the semiconductor sector under significant pressure. Broadcom fell more than 12% in a single day due to lower-than-expected AI revenue guidance, dragging down Micron, Arm, AMD, and others, indicating that valuation pressure after the AI ​​trading frenzy is being released.

2. Geopolitics and Energy: A glimmer of hope appears in the Iran negotiations, but Middle East risks remain.

Trump stated that US-Iran negotiations had entered the "final crucial phase," and ceasefire discussions in the Strait of Hormuz continued, temporarily easing market concerns about extreme risks in the Middle East. Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by more than 3% in a single day. However, geopolitical tensions have not truly subsided. Israel continues to expand its ground operations in Lebanon, and the joint US-Israeli military operation continues to intensify regional uncertainty. Energy prices, coupled with Eurozone inflation rising to 3.2% in May, further amplified market concerns about "reflation," limiting the Federal Reserve's room for further interest rate cuts. Copper prices continued to rise due to the approaching tariff review, with Goldman Sachs and Citigroup both raising their full-year target prices.

3. Key Window for the Federal Reserve: First Warsh FOMC Meeting Imminent, CPI in Global Focus This Week

Newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh will chair his first policy meeting on June 17. While maintaining the current interest rate in June remains the mainstream market expectation, the pricing logic has shifted from "when to cut rates" to "whether to raise rates again." The US May CPI, released this Wednesday, will be the most crucial data window before the June FOMC meeting. If inflation exceeds expectations again, US Treasury yields may continue to rise, increasing valuation pressure on risk assets; conversely, a significant decline in CPI could alleviate market concerns about "reflation."

Meanwhile, SpaceX's planned IPO on June 12th, valued at approximately $1.77 trillion, coupled with the liquidity-draining effect of large IPOs like Anthropic, may continue to suppress the resilience of risk assets. Furthermore, with the yen approaching the 160 level, if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates more than expected on June 16th, carry trade unwinding could also have an additional impact on technology stocks and crypto assets.

II. Crypto Market

1. Market Overview: BTC plummeted by approximately 17% in a single week, marking the largest weekly drop since the FTX crash.

This week, the crypto market experienced its most dramatic weekly decline since the FTX crash in November 2022. BTC fell from approximately $72,700 in early June to a low of $61,100 on June 5th, a weekly drop of about 17%–20%; ETH also fell by about 22%, currently priced at around $1,682, a decline of about 66% from its all-time high.

The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies fell from $2.57 trillion to $2.25 trillion, wiping out approximately $390 billion in a week. Leveraged liquidations totaled about $7 billion throughout the week, with long positions accounting for about $5.7 billion. On June 5th alone, $1.146 billion in liquidations occurred, affecting over 240,000 individuals. The Fear & Greed Index fell to 9, entering the "extreme fear" zone. The core pressures of this decline stemmed from a combination of factors: a drop in risk appetite in US stocks, soaring US Treasury yields, continuous outflows from ETFs, and the concentrated liquidation of leveraged long positions.

2. ETFs experienced continuous net outflows, with institutional investors systematically reducing their holdings.

US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $325 million this week, with a cumulative total net inflow of approximately $53.94 billion; Ethereum spot ETFs saw net outflows of $5.97 million this week, with a cumulative total net inflow of approximately $11.2 billion. The outflows from ETFs, coupled with professional investors reducing their BTC exposure and continued selling by some institutions, have put systemic pressure on the crypto market to reduce its holdings.

Strategy has suspended its cryptocurrency ATM issuance mechanism, instead prioritizing the repurchase of approximately $1.5 billion in convertible bonds. As a significant marginal source of BTC buying over the past two years, its slowdown signifies weakened short-term market support. Overall, the AI ​​infrastructure investment boom continues to drain liquidity from the crypto market, and the siphon effect of mega-IPOs like SpaceX and Anthropic continues to be a core obstacle to Crypto's independent upward trend.

3. On-chain data: The risks of whale buying on buy the dips and large-scale liquidations coexist.

This week saw a clear divergence in on-chain signals. On one hand, some large holders began buying on dips. Ethereum OG repurchased 35,723 ETH at an average price of $1,563; a whale purchased a total of 93,330 ETH for approximately 152 million USDT; and Joseph Lubin added another 30,000 ETH to the Maker vault, bringing his total staked ETH to 110,000 to mitigate liquidation risk.

On the other hand, the risk of liquidation remains. The three largest whale, holding a combined 345,000 ETH, worth approximately $537 million, still face the threat of liquidation, with a liquidation price range of approximately $1,241-$1,472. The total market capitalization of stablecoins has fallen to $310 billion, a weekly decrease of approximately 1.89%, indicating generally weak on-chain purchasing power. Currently, BTC is testing support near the 200-week moving average, at approximately $61,821. This is the first time it has touched this key level since 2023; whether it can hold the support around $60,000 will be a key variable in determining the short-term market direction.

4. Industry Narrative: Accelerated Compliance of Derivatives and Speeded Up the Deployment of Institutional-Grade Infrastructure

This week's industry narrative continued to focus on "institutionalized infrastructure" and "compliant derivatives." CME launched Nasdaq Crypto Index futures on June 8th, covering assets such as BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, LINK, and XLM; Coinbase launched four perpetual stock index futures—AI10, China 10, Defense 10, and Technology 100—under the CFTC regulatory framework on the same day.

Ondo Finance's Ondo Perps launched on June 9th, attempting to expand perpetual contracts from crypto assets to equity assets such as stocks. Simultaneously, quantitative firms like DRW, Wintertermute, and IMC are accelerating the formation of prediction market teams, developing cross-platform arbitrage strategies around Polymarket and Kalshi. Overall, this sharp decline has not weakened the institutional trend; instead, it has strengthened the main theme of "compliant derivatives + on-chain financial infrastructure." The crypto market is gradually shifting from being driven by retail sentiment to being driven by institutional capital efficiency and compliant products.

This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment involves high risk; please fully assess your own risk tolerance and strictly manage risk before trading.