Cardano has the most oversold RSI in history, yet traders are still betting 2.5 times their stake on the Longing.

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Cardano has just experienced its worst news in five years, coinciding with an unprecedentedly strong technical Dip signal. ADA is currently trading at $0.1669, below $0.20 for the first time since 2021 and down 39% in just one month.

The recent slump was accompanied by a series of bad news: a temporary leave announcement from the founder, warnings of a collapse in DeFi, a canceled conference, the suspension of leadership at the Cardano Foundation, and the governance system refusing to fund its own major event.

Nevertheless, on Monday, June 8th, the price of ADA rose slightly by 1.96%, a small jump not enough to reverse the long-term negative trend of the past month.

Cardano ADA: What happened?

On June 3rd, Charles Hoskinson posted on X: “I’m taking a break. See you later.” Shortly after, ADA plummeted 10% in a single day, falling below $0.20 for the first time since 2021. (XEM details)

I'm taking a break. TTYL

— Charles Hoskinson (@IOHK_Charles) June 3, 2026

He later explained that he wasn't leaving completely, but his words only further confused the community. The temporary hiatus announcement came shortly after warnings of a "wave of failures" in DeFi projects on Cardano, due to macroeconomic pressures and governance conflicts. Also Read

TapTools, one of the most widely used data analytics platforms on Cardano, has announced it is ceasing operations.

The governance crisis only worsened the situation. Cardano 's DReps (elected governance representatives) voted against a proposal to allocate 7.8 million ADA from the fund to host the 2026 Singapore Summit, leading to the event's cancellation.

Governance requires not only participation, but also a commitment to accept collective decisions. The Cardano community has spoken and we respect the outcome.Following the outcome of the Treasury proposal votes, the Cardano Foundation's proposed Cardano Summit 2026, will not…

— Cardano Foundation (@Cardano_CF) May 30, 2026

Around the same time, reports also emerged that key leaders at the Cardano Foundation had been suspended from their positions.

The wave of DeFi project closures following Hoskinson's warnings has shown that concerns about this ecosystem are entirely real.

Cardano's RSI signal: Why are big traders still buying?

The weekly RSI (Relative Strength Index – a momentum indicator measuring the oversold/overbought levels of an asset) has reached its strongest "oversold" level in Cardano's history. (XEM details)

Previously, this level had only been reached twice: before the 2019 recovery and before the 2022 recovery – both of which marked the beginning of strong price increases.

Professional and large institutional investors are now preparing for the possibility of history repeating itself for a third time. Data on Binance shows that large traders are maintaining a Longing/ Short ratio above 2.5, meaning they are placing buy orders that are double the number of short orders.

Retail investors account for only 0.74%, meaning the majority are betting on a decline. The gap between retail and professional investors' positions is currently at a historically large level.

Institutional investors are betting on the potential recovery of the ADA. Institutional investors are betting on the potential recovery of ADA: Source: Coinglass

Another positive factor, aside from the bad news appearing in the media, is that Cardano 's Leios update will be publicly tested on the testnet this month. The goal of this upgrade is to significantly increase the number of transactions processed per second, aiming to surpass 1,000 transactions/second. (Also Read)

Traders have already factored in the negative impact of the governance crisis and the wave of DeFi shutdowns at the current price of $0.1669. But they haven't yet factored in the Leios upgrade. The worst news in five years coincides with the strongest technical Dip signal.

One of those two things must be wrong.

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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