Key Summary
- Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn estimates that Bitcoin's current bottom will be between $40,000 and $46,000, far above historical bear market levels.
- The October 2025 peak was unusually calm, with only 2 out of 11 peak indicators triggered, and the overall network cost benchmark reaching 43.7% of its historical high.
- CryptoQuant: BTC is only about 9% above realized price, with weekly demand shrinking by 652,000 coins, the largest drop since January 2022.
The bottom of this Bitcoin bear market may be "more expensive" than any previous one. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at approximately $63,400, almost unchanged in the last 24 hours, and had been fluctuating between $59,000 and $64,000 over the past week. But the real debate in the market isn't about the current price, but rather where the floor of this cycle will ultimately be.
Galaxy Digital's prediction is "higher than people expected."
Galaxy: The calm ceiling actually raised the floor.
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, reviewed Bitcoin's four-year cycle and found a trend: the decline from each high to the low point has been converging. The first two cycles saw declines of 85% and 84%, respectively, which shrank to 77% in 2022, and only 51% in the current cycle of 2026. As the declines become shallower, the bottom naturally becomes higher.
The key was the "calm top" in October 2025. Thorn pointed out that only 2 out of 11 traditional topping indicators were triggered, and even the historically accurate Pi Cycle Top indicator failed for the first time; the MVRV ratio, which measures market profitability, only reached 2.29, far lower than the 2.93 to 5.91 of previous rounds. There was no excessive speculation in the market, and the turnover of shares was not drastic, which is why the floor was raised.
The key insight is that a calm top can raise the floor. Because the October top was too mild, the overall cost benchmark is currently at 43.7% of its all-time high, compared to only about 34%, 21%, and 17% in previous rounds.
When converted to price, Thorn provides three scenarios:
- Baseline scenario: The bottom is expected to be between $40,000 and $46,000.
- A deeper sell-off: a drop to $30,000 to $37,000
- A shallow pullback: holding between $51,000 and $54,000.
The current cost benchmark, or realized price, is around $53,600. However, Thorn didn't rule out any possibility. He cautioned that this floor is subject to change because the cost benchmark itself is reflexive; if the market experiences genuine panic, the turnover of losing positions will lower the average cost. He estimated that if the cost benchmark declines by another 10% to 30%, the implied floor would be dragged down from around $40,000 back to around $28,000.
CryptoQuant: Valuations have fallen to the bottom of the bear market range.
Another source provides support for Galaxy's baseline scenario. CryptoQuant points out that BTC recently fell to around $59,000, only about 9% above its realized price, falling into a valuation range that has appeared at the bottom of past major bear markets.
Historically, including the FTX crash in November 2022, cycle bottoms have mostly formed near or slightly below realized prices, which happens to partially overlap with the $40,000 to $46,000 base band for Galaxy.
However, the demand figures are not good. According to CryptoQuant, the combined demand for spot and speculative futures contracts by 652,000 BTC in a single week, the most severe contraction since January 2022. The one-year demand indicator, which measures the strength of buying interest, has also turned negative, indicating that there are fewer buyers entering the market now than a year ago.
Thorn noted that only 4 of the 13 bottoming indicators have been triggered so far, and stronger signals have yet to appear. Historically, bottoms typically take 12 to 13 months to form after a peak, and this cycle has only lasted about 8 months. From a time perspective, the bottoming process may not even be halfway complete.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where does Galaxy predict the bottom of this Bitcoin cycle will be?
Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn's baseline scenario is $40,000 to $46,000, a deep correction scenario is $30,000 to $37,000, and a shallower pullback is around $51,000 to $54,000. He emphasizes that the cost baseline will fluctuate, and the floor could be dragged back to around $28,000 during a panic.
Why is it said that a "calm top" will pave the way for a higher bottom for Bitcoin?
Because market speculation was low when the peak was reached in October 2025, the MVRV only reached 2.29, and only 2 out of 11 top indicators were triggered. The turnover of chips was not drastic, which kept the cost benchmark of the entire network at 43.7% of the historical high, far higher than the 17% to 34% of the previous rounds, which in turn raised the cycle floor.
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