Claude Fable of Anthropic predicts the winner of the FIFA World Cup 2026.

Anthropic's latest AI model, Claude Fable 5, predicts Spain will beat France in the 2026 World Cup final on July 19, 2026. However, even this AI itself estimates the probability of its prediction succeeding at only 18%.

BeInCrypto conducted numerous simulations with this AI model to test its predictive capabilities, as this year's season kicked off with 48 teams for the first time. Claude Fable 5 based its predictions on the league structure, squad depth, and nearly a century of hosting history.

Why did AI start with a tournament format instead of teams?

The first reason this model gives relates to the tournament structure , not the talent of the teams. This tournament has been expanded to 104 games over 39 days in the US, Canada, and Mexico. To win, a team now needs to win 8 games instead of 7 as before.

According to Claude Fable 5, the additional knockout rounds completely changed the calculations. More matches meant players were more likely to tire, requiring more squad rotation and increasing the likelihood of elimination from a single poor game. Therefore, the model prioritized squad depth and tactical system stability over exceptional individual talent.

Playing conditions were the second factor that the AI ​​XEM important. Stadiums like Dallas, Houston, Miami, and Monterrey all experienced hot weather in the summer. Mexico City also had a high altitude, and travel distances between cities were longer than at any previous World Cup.

“Spain’s possession-based style of play helps conserve energy. The team that keeps possession more gets more rest on the pitch; conversely, the team forced to chase the ball will struggle in the North American heat,” Claude Fable 5 Chia .

Why did AI choose Spain over France?

Claude Fable 5 gives three reasons for putting faith in Spain. First, "La Roja" has already overcome the greatest pressure at Euro 2024. They successively defeated Croatia, Italy, Germany, France, and England – winning every match throughout the tournament.

Furthermore, Spain also has an age advantage. Lamine Yamal just turned 19 in this tournament, while Pedri and Nico Williams are only 23. Meanwhile, their rivals face the issue of age – Lionel Messi is 38, Cristiano Ronaldo 41, and Harry Kane 32.

Ultimately, Spain isn't overly reliant on any single individual. If France were without Kylian Mbappé, they would be a completely different team. But Spain's style of play is highly collective, so losing one attacking player doesn't significantly impact the team's overall strength.

🚨🇪🇸 Lamine Yamal returns to regular team training today ahead of World Cup start. 🔋Good news for Spain coach Luis de la Fuente. pic.twitter.com/pk31uexlBO

— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) June 11, 2026

France remains the team predicted to reach the final, according to AI. This marks the second consecutive time the team has reached the final of a major tournament, demonstrating their consistent high level of performance in recent international football.

However, following the pattern, coach Didier Deschamps always aims for the safest option – Les Bleus' knockout matches are often decided by small moments. In the eight-match series, Claude Fable 5 predicted that this approach would not help France overcome a team with good ball control like Spain.

Argentina, England, and other "dark horse" teams

This model places both Argentina and England in the semi-finals. However, the AI ​​rules out the possibility of Argentina defending their title because no champion has won consecutive titles since 1962 (Brazil). Winning teams tend to age together, opponents have four years to study their playing style, and Messi is unlikely to maintain peak performance throughout all 39 tournament days.

The England team has a quality squad, but there are questions about its system. Coach Thomas Tuchel is leading an international tournament for the first time; historical statistics show that new coaches often fail to maximize the theoretical strength of their team. AI predicts England will lose to Spain in the semi-finals, similar to the scenario at Euro 2024.

Brazil is considered the most formidable opponent thanks to the knockout experience of coach Carlo Ancelotti. Portugal also has a chance if Ronaldo accepts a reserve role. As for Morocco, reaching the semi-finals in 2022 wasn't just a stroke of luck but something they could absolutely repeat.

Norway's biggest weakness is their thin reserve squad, despite having Erling Haaland with his impressive goal-scoring ability.

Getting closer 🇳🇴 pic.twitter.com/OhRR7r2Fde

— Erling Haaland (@ErlingHaaland)June 11, 2026

In the Golden Boot award category, Claude Fable 5 chose Mbappé over Haaland. Norway is expected to play a maximum of 5 matches, while Mbappé could play up to 8 and would also be tasked with taking penalties.

The model even contradicted its own predictions.

Claude Fable 5 then pointed out weaknesses in his predictions . In fact, Spain were eliminated in the round of 16 in both the 2018 and 2022 World Cups, and were also eliminated in the group stage in 2014. Historically, teams considered favorites rarely win the title as fans expect.

History shows even greater difficulty. In the previous 21 World Cups, only Germany in 2014 was the sole European team to win when the tournament was held in the Americas.

Previous World Cups held in the Americas have all seen South American teams crowned champions. This AI ignored that pattern, arguing that nowadays, thanks to modern travel and training conditions, teams are no longer subject to the "geographical curse" they once were.

The full AI probability table: Spain 18%, France 14%, Argentina 11%, England 10%, Brazil 8%, and Portugal 7%.

"My prediction has an 82% chance of being wrong. That's the reality of a 48-team knockout tournament. Any AI that confidently claims a World Cup winner is just... acting, not making a prediction," the AI ​​further commented.

Goldman Sachs and other forecasting firms also predicted the exact same final match.

Wall Street reached the same conclusion last Friday. Goldman Sachs, in a report by Jan Hatzius – chief economist and head of global investment research – published the probability of winning this year's World Cup.

Goldman's predictive model places Spain at the top with a 26% probability, followed by France at 19% and Argentina at 14%. The bank's assessment is based on past performance, goal-scoring ability, current form, geographical factors, and many other variables.

The bank's analysts also warned of the "championship slump effect," suggesting that Argentina could underperform after lifting the trophy in 2022.

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The Goldman Sachs prediction model for the FIFA World Cup is out: 🇪🇸 Spain: 26% 🇫🇷 France: 19% 🇦🇷 Argentina: 14% 🇧🇷 Brazil: 8%. pic.twitter.com/XPIoaveWjR

— Rand Group (@randgroup) June 6, 2026

On crypto-specific prediction markets, the race is much closer. On Polymarket, Spain leads with 17%, followed by France at 16%, Portugal at 11%, the UK at 10%, and Argentina and Brazil both at 9%.

On the legal Kalshi exchange, the difference is even smaller. Spain has a rate of 17.7%, followed by France with 17.1% and still increasing. England and Portugal are both at 10.8%, slightly higher than Argentina at 8.9% and Brazil at 8.5%.

All predictions point to the final outcome, but the level of confidence varies. Goldman's model shows the greatest confidence in Spain at 26%, while investors on both exchanges have nearly equal predictions for Spain and France. Fable 5's prediction at 18% is also close to the market price.

Portugal is where the difference is most evident, with investors valuing AI at 11% compared to just 7%. The remaining 7 knockout rounds will show whether the banking model, AI, or the crowd-driven market of small retail investors will correctly predict this year's World Cup.

Note: The predictions in this article are generated by Anthropic's Fable 5 AI model and reflect only probabilistic estimates, not absolute certainty. The content is for informational purposes only and is not intended as betting or financial advice.

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