Table of Contents
ToggleThe United States and Iran announced on the 14th that they had reached a peace agreement, agreeing to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The formal signing ceremony will be held in Switzerland on Friday.
Bitcoin prices surged 2%, climbing to $65,700 in the past 24 hours, their highest level since the June opening crash. WTI crude oil prices simultaneously fell nearly 5% , slipping below $81 a barrel, a new low in about two months.
Market chain reaction
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.5%, and S&P 500 futures rose 0.9%. The decline in crude oil prices directly lowered inflation expectations, injecting liquidity optimism into the market.
The logic behind this round of price increases is clear: the US-Iran peace agreement reduces supply risks in the Middle East → crude oil prices fall → inflationary pressures ease → the Federal Reserve has more room to cut interest rates → risk assets (including Bitcoin) benefit.
The transmission chain from crude oil to Bitcoin
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital waterway for global oil transportation, with approximately 17 million barrels of crude oil passing through it daily. Following its reopening, not only did oil prices fall, but market expectations for inflation were also revised downwards.
Bitcoin, seen as a safe haven from inflation, quickly followed the decline in oil prices. Chain data shows that Bitcoin's on-chain transaction volume increased by 8% in the past 24 hours, indicating a rapid return of funds.
Next key points to observe
Market attention has turned to the signing ceremony in Switzerland on Friday. If the agreement is successfully implemented, the Strait of Hormuz is expected to resume full traffic flow within the next 1-2 weeks, and crude oil prices may further decline to the $75 range.
If Bitcoin holds above $65,700, the next resistance level is $67,000, which was on June 10th. Conversely, if the protocol changes or oil prices rebound, Bitcoin may retest the $64,500 support level.
Related reports
