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ToggleBitcoin 's price movement reveals a pattern that has persisted for 16 years: every bear market following the peak of a bull market has seen the price fall below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, calculated from the starting point of the 2010 rally, without exception.
If this pattern continues to hold true in this cycle, Bitcoin could retrace from its current price of $65,000 to around $48,000. At the current price, this represents a drop of approximately 26%.
How is the Fischer clawback calculated?
Fibonacci retracement is one of the most commonly used tools in technical analysis, derived from the proportional relationship between adjacent values in the Fibonacci sequence. The 61.8% level (the reciprocal of the golden ratio φ) is considered a key support and resistance level.
The algorithm for this pattern is simple: starting from Bitcoin's initial trading price of $0.003 in February 2010, draw Fibonacci retracement lines to the peaks of each bull market. The patterns of the past four cycles are as follows:
- June 2011 : The first bull market in Bitcoin peaked → The subsequent bear market saw the price fall below the 61.8% retracement level.
- November 2013 : The second bull market for BTC peaked → The bear market broke through 61.8%.
- December 2017 : The third bull market for Bitcoin peaked → the bear market fell below 61.8%.
- November 2021 : BTC's fourth bull market peaked → Bear market resumes, falling below 61.8%
Four bull markets, four bear markets, four dips, and zero exceptions. CoinDesk's chart shows that every bear market low fell below the 61.8% retracement level, rather than above it.
Target price for this cycle: $48,000
Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025 during this cycle. If we calculate the 61.8% retracement level from $0.003 to $126,000, it would fall at $48,215.
Bitcoin is currently priced at approximately $65,500, still some distance from its target price. In other words, the pattern has not yet been triggered, but once it does, the price path will point below $48,000.
A blind spot that cannot be ignored: insufficient sample size
Four cycles still represent a small sample size statistically. The more crucial difference lies in the fact that today's Bitcoin market is vastly different from what it was 10 years ago.
The current market structure is dominated by ETFs, with institutional funds holding the majority of liquidity and derivative strategies far exceeding previous levels. This market maturity may allow prices to find support before the 61.8% retracement level; in other words, the existing pattern may "become invalid prematurely" in this round.
However, for technical analysts, $48,215 remains a noteworthy lower limit reference point. Especially after Bitcoin fell nearly 49% from its all-time high of $126,000 (based on data from June 8th), market sentiment is nearing its lowest level since the 2022 bear market.
For Taiwanese investors, the Fibonacci retracement provides not a prediction, but a framework for risk management. If you establish a position above $70,000, a target price of $48,000 implies a buffer of approximately 30%, which is still reasonable at this stage.
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