Table of Contents
ToggleThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially announced in its latest ENSO diagnostic report released on June 11 that El Niño has formed in the equatorial Pacific region, marking the official start of the El Niño cycle globally. Even more alarming, NOAA predicts a 63% chance this winter of developing into a "Super El Niño," which, if it occurs, would be the strongest since complete meteorological records began in 1950.
Latest NOAA data: Multiple indicators simultaneously flash red.
According to observations from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) , sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are currently higher than historical averages across the board.
- Niño-3.4 (the most commonly used indicator of El Niño): +0.7°C, which has crossed the threshold for El Niño (+0.5°C).
- Niño-1+2 index (eastern Pacific Ocean closest to South America): as high as +2.1°C, indicating an abnormal concentration of warm water off the coast of Peru.
- Niño-4 Index (Western Pacific): +0.7°C, warm water area is expanding westward.
The NOAA report indicates that the ocean-atmosphere coupling system in the equatorial Pacific has fully reflected the initiation characteristics of El Niño: abnormal westerly winds in the lower troposphere, abnormal easterly winds in the upper troposphere, weakened convection in the Indonesian region, and the traditional Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) turning negative. These are all textbook-level El Niño signals.
63% chance of upgrading to "Super El Niño": The key is the thermal content of the Pacific Ocean's bottom layer.
NOAA's North American Multimodel Ensemble Forecasting (NMME) system indicates that El Niño will continue to intensify during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27. The key reason for the 63% probability of a super El Niño is the abnormally high "subsurface seawater heat content" in the equatorial Pacific—in layman's terms, the amount of warm water beneath the sea surface is enormous, continuously transferring energy to the surface.
Historically, there have only been three instances of a Super Niño event since 1950: 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16 . The 1997-98 Super Niño event caused approximately 23,000 deaths globally and economic losses exceeding $45 billion. The 2015-16 event made 2016 the hottest year on record at the time—a record that was broken in 2025.
Global Climate Bombs: Australian Bushfires, South American Floods, Asian Drought
The pattern of El Niño's impact on various regions is quite clear: the greater the intensity, the more severe the impact.
- Australia and Southeast Asia : Sharply reduced rainfall and exacerbated droughts have escalated the risk of bushfires. The 2019-20 Australian "Black Summer" bushfires occurred against the backdrop of a weak El Niño; the situation would be even more severe if a super El Niño were to occur.
- The west coast of South America : Peru, Ecuador, and other regions will face torrential rains and devastating floods. Peru's El Niño in 2017 caused over 100 deaths and billions of dollars in damage.
- North America : California may experience torrential rains and landslides; the southern United States will have a colder and wetter winter, while the north will be warmer.
- East Africa and India : Disrupted rainfall patterns could affect food security for hundreds of millions of people.
- Atlantic hurricanes : El Niño usually inhibits the formation of Atlantic hurricanes (the upper-level wind shear brought by El Niño is not conducive to hurricane development), but NOAA warns that "even if the total number of hurricanes decreases, a strong hurricane making landfall is a major disaster."
The chain reaction of economic and commodity market impacts
El Niño is not merely a weather event, but a systemic risk to the global economy. Historical experience shows that Super El Niño can be transmitted to financial markets through the following pathways:
Agricultural product prices soar : El Niño often leads to reduced palm oil production in Southeast Asia, a decline in sugar production in India, and poor wheat harvests in Australia. During the 1997-98 El Niño period, international sugar prices rose by more than 50%.
A surge in energy demand : El Niño typically causes warmer winters and hotter summers in the Northern Hemisphere, leading to a sharp increase in demand for electricity for air conditioning. If this is compounded by summer heat waves, the electricity market could face extreme pressure. Countries reliant on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), such as Japan and India, will be the first to be affected.
Insurance industry claims pressure : Extreme events such as floods, wildfires, and hurricanes accompanying Super El Niño could put billions of dollars in claims bills on the global reinsurance market. Global natural disaster insurance losses exceeded $140 billion in 2025 , and may reach a new high in 2026-27.
Supply chain disruptions : Panama Canal water levels are affected by El Niño-related rainfall patterns. If canal traffic decreases, global shipping costs could surge again, potentially repeating the 2023 canal crisis.
The Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has publicly urged governments not to wait until disaster strikes to act, but to establish early warning systems, stockpile emergency resources, and develop response plans for vulnerable sectors such as agriculture, water resources, and public health. NOAA's next ENSO diagnostic report will be released on July 9th, providing a clearer forecasting direction.
This article is based on reports from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center , The Guardian , and the BBC , and was compiled and edited by Flip from the Dynamic Zone.
Related reports
