Trump's Iran deal: A ceasefire that solves everything except the hard parts.

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Donald Trump announced that the United States and Iran have finalized a peace agreement, with the signing ceremony scheduled for June 19, 2024, in Switzerland. This framework agreement will reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while key nuclear issues will be discussed in subsequent negotiations.

This agreement functions as a 60-day Mnemonics , not a final treaty. It will temporarily halt the conflict, ease oil flows, and trade Iran's compliance for reduced sanctions. However, the major controversy over uranium enrichment and weapons remains unresolved.

The main points of the Trump-Iran agreement.

The Mnemonics is valid for 60 days and can be extended if both sides agree, according to a U.S. official who spoke toAxios . The agreement prioritizes a quick de-escalation of tensions over long-term binding agreements.

The Strait of Hormuz will be reopened free of charge. Iran has pledged to clear the mines it has laid. The US will gradually lift its blockade of Iranian ports in stages.

The temporary waiver allows Iran to resume selling oil for the duration of its agreement. The frozen funds will remain in place until a final and verified agreement is reached. Trump called this principle "sanctions relief as a matter of fulfilling commitments."

DRAFT IRAN-US MEMORANDUM WOULD SUSPEND SANCTIONS ON IRANIAN OIL AND PETROCHEMICAL SALES – IRANIAN MEDIA

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) June 14, 2026

Tehran has yet to agree to this schedule, leaving the timing of the signing still under debate and attracting significant attention from investors and traders.

IRAN MAKES NO COMMITMENTS TO REMOVE NUKES IN TRUMP PEACE DEALONLY TO DISCUSS THE PROGRAM

— Merlin Capital 🧙‍♂️ (@merlinscapital) June 14, 2026

Why has the nuclear issue not been definitively resolved?

The draft includes a commitment from Iran not to develop nuclear weapons, but the issue of limiting uranium enrichment and handling its stockpiles will be left for the next 60 days of negotiations.

This gap is quite similar to the 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA) that Trump withdrew from in 2018. This time, Iran would receive sanctions relief if it fulfilled its commitments, instead of being given preferential treatment upfront before complying.

The two sides remain publicly at odds. Trump insists the agreement does not allow Iran to enrich uranium. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, however, refutes this.

"Iran will continue enriching uranium, regardless of whether an agreement is signed or not."

Issues related to Iran's ballistic missiles and its network of allies have been largely overlooked in the current agreement.

What was the agreement to postpone and how did the market react?

Many believe this agreement only buys about 60 days of peace, not a long-term solution. Permanent limits on uranium enrichment, missile disposal, or the removal of pro-Iranian forces will be left for further negotiations.

There are still many practical difficulties. The US Department of Defense warns that clearing all the mines in Hormuz could take up to six months, slowing down the restoration of shipping to pre-war levels.

However, the market has reacted positively to this news . If the political situation becomes more stable,the price of Bitcoin could continue to recover if the stock market remains strong on the signing day.

The signing ceremony on June 19, 2024, will be the moment to verify whether the ceasefire agreement can be maintained. A greater challenge will follow, when both sides decide whether to uphold the principle of "action first, then incentives" instead of making commitments first and then reducing sanctions as in previous agreements.

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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