According to Odaily Seer , the probability of Polymarket's "Trump agreeing to ease sanctions on Iranian oil by the end of June" has risen to 87%, an increase of 12% in 24 hours.
The contractual rules state that if the United States agrees to lift, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports by 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on June 30, 2026, the event will be deemed "Yes"; otherwise, it will be deemed "No". Sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports refer to restrictions imposed by the United States on the production, sale, transport, purchase, or export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, or petrochemical products (including transportation, insurance, and financial transactions related to such exports). The United States is deemed to have agreed to lift, suspend, waive, or reduce such sanctions if the following conditions are met:
1. Trump or other authorized representatives of the U.S. government publicly announce that the United States has finally agreed to lift, suspend, waive, or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil;
2. Cancellation, suspension, exemption, or reduction of any such sanctions that are incorporated into a formal treaty or agreement between the United States and Iran, including treaties or agreements reached through signing or other formal means.
Trump posted on social media today: "A deal with Iran has been reached. Congratulations! I hereby authorize free passage through the Strait of Hormuz and the immediate lifting of the U.S. Navy's blockade of Iran. Ships of the world, set sail. Let the oil flow!"
Odaily Seer continuously focuses on the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
