Author: 0xGeeGee , Researcher at Chaos Labs
Compiled by: Yuliya, PANews
Editor's Note: Chaos Labs researcher 0xGeeGee recently published an in-depth Twitter threads summarizing his thoughts on the market for the current week and the coming week. The post covers the changing trends in AI, potential projects in the RWA (Real-Time Automation) sector, short opportunities arising from the adjustment of aerospace stocks and the Nasdaq 100 index, and the current state of development of new crypto banks. The following is a translation of the original post:
Here, I'd like to share some insights summarizing this week and starting next week's trading. I still have some older positions that I've held for a while (such as HYPE, BTC/MSTR, and VELO/AERO), which I won't comment on further here, but my core trading logic remains unchanged.
I. Major AI Trends in 2026 and Beyond: The Fable Ban and Trading Opportunities
Let me reiterate a view that I firmly believe will shape the landscape of AI development this year and even in the coming years (at least in terms of market sentiment; it's hard to say about practical applications, since everything is still too new).
The core idea is that AI is undergoing a process of economic evaluation.
In the past, companies invested in Large Language Models (LLM) with the mindset of "investing as much money as they could." However, with the emergence of more and more people who have been using LLM independently for a long time and have maintained objectivity and clarity, traditional companies are beginning to realize an important reality: the lack of effective organizational management may lead to superficial productivity improvements, but in reality, it may fail to achieve true efficiency.
Therefore, companies are now increasingly focusing on improving their "organizational management capabilities": making spending transparent, clarifying which expenditures are productive and which are ineffective, maximizing the use of every expense, and reusing the results of past investments. Essentially, we are rediscovering the importance of diligence, something companies understand very well in other areas, but which they believe is unnecessary when it comes to AI spending.
Next, let's talk about specific trading strategies. I missed the trading opportunities brought about by the Fable ban because I wasn't fully awake at the time, and I thought the conclusions people immediately drew were a bit silly (if you try to provide off-the-beaten-path methods to circumvent the ban, you'll be severely punished, which is definitely not a good thing). But rationally speaking, a more reasonable logic is that this event will cause the market to focus more on decentralized models and privacy protection (whether in the model training or inference phase).
This topic echoes the previously mentioned "efficiency" theme, because as we all know, the unit cost of intelligence in open-source models is generally 90% lower than that of traditional models, although their performance has not yet reached the level of top-tier cutting-edge models.
Should I then strongly promote $VVV or $TAO? Or should I strongly promote $PRL?
Absolutely not. While there are a few upcoming tokens worth watching, I cannot confidently recommend an asset with massive pressure release (TAO), an asset that has already increased 20 times (VVV), or a project whose core selling point is "it's Bitcoin, but you have to mine it by doing inference/AI work" (PRL).
1a: EigenCloud and DarkBloom
However, I do have two ideas about this track.
The first one is $ EIGEN (hold on, put down those rotten tomatoes you're about to throw at me...). Eigenlayer is arguably the most disappointing project of the 2023 cycle. I dare say that the disillusionment with restaking has largely contributed to the current gloomy mood in Ethereum (it has also diverted a lot of funds that could have flowed elsewhere).
The reason I bring this up is that Eigenlayer has essentially transitioned from simple restaking and DA (data availability) to EigenCloud. If you're still confused after hearing this (which is understandable), then I want to emphasize their newly launched product : DarkBloom .
In short: it's an AI-powered version of Airbnb based on the computing power of Mac computers, with added privacy and verification mechanisms at the underlying level.
Besides that, they have other moves (such as the ECSDA Fail, which is pretty cool; you can look it up). Even if you think these things are too narrow a point of entry, don't forget that EIGEN is no longer the behemoth with a $20 billion fully diluted valuation (FDV). Its current FDV is actually only around $350 million (okay, although there is still $7.25 million unlocked every month... but we can turn a blind eye to that).
Following the ELIP-12 proposal, EIGEN also has the opportunity to start capturing some real revenue (including 100% net revenue from EigenAI, EigenCloud, and EigenDA, and 20% revenue from the AVS security services network).
In conclusion, I am bullish on EIGEN at this level and have already bought some.
1b: OpenServ
The second project is OpenServ (token symbol $SERV).
I won't go into too much detail about this project, as we've already discussed it extensively before. Essentially, it's an agent-based inference/orchestration layer. Few Altcoin can simultaneously meet so many of my selection criteria:
Good narrative and practical business
Indeed, there have been implementations (including by traditional enterprises that are not native to the cryptography industry).
The token has a clear revenue capture path.
Regarding the last point: Customers can purchase inference credits using USD or USDC, and 25% of the SERV inference API revenue will be used to buy back and burn SERV tokens on the market. Furthermore, the official statement also indicates that 25% of Build revenue, 25% of Launchpad liquidity pool transaction fees, and 25% of enterprise/B2B integration revenue will be used for buybacks and burns.
Everything seems very positive and wonderful. My only concern is that the discussion surrounding this project is getting a bit too high-profile, which is often not a good sign in investing. But I'm still willing to hold onto it and join this wave.
II. RWA: Credit and Tokenized Stocks
This is probably another topic that we'll be bombarded with and discussed until we're sick of it (just like last year, AI and RWA, RWA and AI, with a few privacy concepts thrown in between).
2a: Morpho
In the realm of credit tokenization and various interest-bearing assets, everyone now knows that $ MORPHO is the industry leader (although opinions remain divided on some of the specific markets the curator is building—but that's okay). Not only did it receive investment from Apollo in February, but it also recently completed a new funding round led by a16z, Paradigm, and Ribbit.
Currently, the dynamics of the MORPHO token are an open secret, and there's no need to hide them: an over-the-counter (OTC) transaction approved and funded internally by the team obviously won't directly drive the secondary market price. However, as long as these (currently semi-public) transaction terms remain as attractive as they seem, the market's attention to the token indicates that the situation may change in the future—holding it may no longer be just a trophy or badge of honor accompanying another transaction, but will have a more substantial meaning.
2b: Backpack Securities
In the RWA sector, another token worth our close attention is $ BP (hopefully this won't become the local top I'm calling out after quietly enjoying a big surge).
Although I've never used their exchange (and I'm not particularly interested in it), anyone with eyes can see that their tokenization efforts are gaining significant traction. The token's circulating market capitalization is currently below $100 million, making it perfectly capable of a price surge.
It is important to emphasize that Backpack is not just an exchange, nor is it just a wallet.
Backpack Securities is actually a legitimate brokerage firm that allows you to tokenize your assets in both directions and supports two-way transfers with other brokerages. While shareholder-related features are still under development, they are expected to launch soon. I don't particularly like the team, but the bullish logic behind this project is very clear.
The Solana ecosystem, in particular, hasn't seen a true super winner for a long time, apart from the recent JTO (and JTX). And this project once again perfectly matches my multiple selection criteria.
Furthermore, now is the perfect time to grab the spotlight, because many other so-called "tokenization" projects are essentially just churning out some vague, multi-layered synthetic garbage, or wildly hyping up grand pre-IPO visions, only to deliver something worthless in the end.
2c: Other items of interest
With reverse takeovers in the traditional financial sector being prepared in earnest, Securitize's $ CEPT is clearly a very noteworthy indicator.
Finally, I'd like to take this opportunity to strongly recommend Variational: this exchange is truly excellent (in fact, it's my current favorite platform for short-term daily trading due to its incredibly diverse range of trading instruments). They recently started introducing RWA assets. While the current asset offerings aren't large enough, and bid-ask spreads are sometimes less than ideal, this undoubtedly further enriches its already comprehensive asset coverage.
I really like Variational (and it's great to earn some points there).
Perhaps we could also add $ PLUME to the RWA section. It seems they've finally established themselves and are making good progress in business expansion (such as the recent integration with platforms like GRVT and Bybit), and the candlestick chart also has the potential to form a beautiful rounded bottom. Let's wait and see.
III. Space-related stocks and new members of the Nasdaq 100 index
I'll keep this part brief, since I've already revealed the core logic.
SpaceX has already begun to exert its influence. Meanwhile, $ RKLB (Rocket Lab) has long served as its shadow stock/beta asset, and was even recently included in the Nasdaq 100 index.
Over the past five years, newly added stocks to the Nasdaq 100 index have outperformed the QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) by an average of about 37% in the 120 days before their official inclusion; however, in the 120 days after their official inclusion, their performance has consistently underperformed the QQQ (usually accompanied by a decline in absolute price).
Due to the additional catalyst brought by SpaceX, RKLB had previously become an extreme case of outperforming the market; therefore, I expect it to become an extreme case of underperforming the market after its formal inclusion.
The put options I bought are now finally in-the-money, and I've also established a separate short position. I've looked for other equally perfect underlying assets to complement this "SpaceX news exhausted"short strategy, but it's hard to find anything better.
Another stock I'm closely watching is $ CRWV . Although it has nothing to do with SpaceX, like RKLB, it's a new member that will be officially included in the index on June 22nd, and it's also a favorite among retail investors in this cycle.
IV. Finally: NeoBanks, the New Crypto Bank
Following the announcement of P1 (Plasma One), $ XPL experienced an extremely rapid surge, which also boosted several smaller-cap "new crypto bank" tokens, but the gains did not extend to all projects.
Personally, while I've benefited from and am a big fan of XPL's recent surge, I'm not confident that this will translate into widespread buying across the entire new banking sector. Therefore, I won't be opening any new positions on this narrative (aside from my current locked-in XPL position, I don't plan to add any more).
I really like their bank card, and I might even register for a paid service.
I've been switching between P1 and EtherFi lately, but I've ultimately stuck with P1, mainly because the user experience is much smoother. Its benefits are also better.
However, now that EtherFi has launched a zero-fee offer for Euro spending, while P1's 3% cashback on spending is about to become a paid threshold, both projects (and their respective tokens) have their own merits and are worth debating.
