If ARB makes a short-term guess, falling below 1 is a high probability event—just like the 27,000 BTC cannot be an iron bottom.
As for the purchase price, around 1 is the short-term consensus price, and there is no problem buying it, but it is not so attractive just like buying 27,000 BTC.
It would be better to have a big bearish position and push the pin to 0.5 or even 0.2. Now it certainly sounds like a fairy tale, as if it is impossible. However, for so many years in the currency circle, whether the group is bullish or bearish, the only certainty is uncertainty.
Of course, it should also be emphasized that the price of 0.2 is a bit similar to BTC reaching 10,000 and ETH reaching 400. No one dared to say that it was absolutely impossible, but that there was indeed no sign of it now.
Firstly, a very low price expectation is not only beneficial to avoid FOMO, but also an adjustment of my personal trading risk preference.
After all, there are all kinds of magical events in the currency circle. Trends and prices are difficult to predict, so we will take three steps:
The first step is to find a reasonable valuation and go a little further.
The second step is to wait for the undervaluation and go a little further.
The third step is to sit firmly and wait for takeoff.
Trade your plan, plan your trade.
Price movements are unpredictable and a waste of time. Don't believe that anyone can predict. If he can predict the price, in such a volatile currency circle, he can earn the world's richest man with 10,000 in just one year.
Therefore, when thinking about the price, let's be safe and lower the forecast. This forecast is part of the trading plan, not fortune-telling, let alone gambling.
Can't come, we have a low position.
When it arrives, don't panic, buy as planned.
So don't worry about getting it or not.
After understanding the previous logic, let's start the first step to find a reasonable valuation.
1. Where is the reasonable valuation?
Valuation is a very difficult thing. In fact, it is just to find an anchor. If the anchor is wrong, the conclusion may be very different; if you find it better, the effect will be better. We break it down into several levels:
1. Find an "anchor" of value
Is there a universal anchor? No, this anchor can only be adjusted continuously according to the actual situation.
So here comes the question, since it is difficult to find out, is it necessary to find the anchor of the valuation? Is necessary! Because I said a very important thing earlier:
"Plan your trade, trade your plan".
When making a trading plan, if you don't have an anchor, you can only follow the feeling.
Everyone has their own anchors, and there are a few bad ones:
One is to use the short-term K-line trend as your anchor, and make a judgment as soon as you draw a few lines. This is also a plan, but it is very poor, because if you operate according to this thing, you will lose everything sooner or later.
The second is to use other people's viewpoints as anchors. For example, how much a certain person said, and a certain person bought it, or a group of friends said, "Don't buy it until it rises to make leeks?" or "Don't sell it now and wait for the wind to blow on the top of the mountain."
These anchors are very common, but in fact the psychological significance is greater than the practical significance. People who cannot be responsible for themselves will prefer such anchors. They don’t have to think about it. If they make a profit, they will buy it decisively.
In the valuation of currency circle projects, various research institutions also have their own anchors. This time, regarding ARB, I prefer @LeePima 's " Exploratory Analysis of Top Streaming Public Chains and Their Ecological Valuation Model ". The article is separated from U Standard, but use the full circulation market value of ETH, combined with the trend of the historical public chain, to find an anchor, there are arguments, there are arguments, and it is very convincing.
The main argument of the article is: the ratio of the full circulation market value of top-tier public chains to ETH will generally vary between 6% and 20%, with a lower range around 6% and a higher range around 20%.
That is, the current market value of ETH is 210 billion US dollars, then the full circulation market value of ARB corresponding to the 6% range is 12.6 billion, that is, the currency price is around 1.26, and when it reaches 20% of the total market value of ETH, it is 42 billion, which is also That is, the ARB price is 4.2U.
Therefore, in his anchoring, he did not consider fiat currency pricing, and completely used ETH as a reference. If ETH fell to 800, then the ARB was around 0.6, which is still an underestimated range.
This kind of anchored thinking is based on the currency standard and is calculated by strongly correlated ETH, which is very exciting.
Mr. Pima’s article does not and will not consider short-term price fluctuations. It talks about methodology, and those who can read it will feel that it will benefit a lot. a supplement.
2. Find out whether to use the full circulation or the circulation valuation
During the bull market, when everyone looks at the valuation, they all look at the liquidity.
But as a result of the bear market, everyone counts as FDV, that is, full circulation.
For example, $BLUR, counting the circulation, the current price of 0.53 * 360 million of the airdrop is less than 200 million in circulation. Compared with $looks on the same track, its number of users and transaction volume are a few tenths of BLUR, which is almost nothing to mention, but its market value is currently the same.
Either BLUR is underestimated, or LOOKS is overestimated?
To put it another way, let’s take the full market capitalization as the calculation.
The market value of LOOKS in full circulation is about 400 million, and the market value of BLUR in full circulation is 1.5 billion, which is about 4 times. Although compared with the huge data difference between the two parties, the valuation still seems to be inaccurate.
But the anchor of the NFT exchange track is even more difficult to find. For example, Opensea was valued at 13 billion US dollars at its peak, and now it is also selling stocks at a discount.
Therefore, according to the above evaluation method, the circulation of BLUR is 200 million, and the total circulation is 1.5 billion, which is not expensive, but the currency price has not improved. The entire NFT market, including blue chips, except for the YUGA series and AZUKI, has also collapsed.
Of course, there is another point to consider in this market value comparison: liquidity. LOOKS can be smashed to zero with tens of millions, and BLUR is better, but not much better.
The funds are not there for the time being, and the hotspots are rotating quickly-under this background, you will find that the funds in the market are chasing each sector. It seems that only retail investors are holding on.
Back to ARB, now it is a bear market, then look at FDV, calculated by FDV, the market’s “consensus” valuation is:
Near $ARB 1U, that is, the total market value is 10 billion, which is higher than OP and tied with MATIC.
In the bull market, compared with the last round of SOL, DOT, etc., the peak is about 50-100 billion—this is the high price of the public chains in the last round of bull market.
So we will find that the price around 1U is not too attractive.
My tweets have a lot of influence, so I have to pay extra attention in the future, and try to remind you from a riskier angle, otherwise what will it become?
Supporters who follow my tweets don’t think about taking orders from others——ARB’s valuation is 1U, but it still needs more people to buy it, but the current situation is that the airdrop is more than 10 times the profit, and the institutions are more Don’t mention it, the currency is still empty for the time being. Judging from the failure of BLUR, FOMO is not a good idea.
I believe that as long as there is a new bad news and the big market crashes, it will be lower than 1U, because those who airdropped will sell;
3. Find a good bid
If you want to find some coins to win the bull market, long-term, then, either BTC and ETH, or find the leader of each track, no one will object to this.
Let's take a look at some faucets?
L2 leader $ARB
Shanghai upgrade leader $LDO
The leading decentralized contract exchange$GMX $DYDX
The leading NFT exchange $BLUR
DID's faucet: $ENS$ID
If I could only choose one of these, I would choose ARB.
It is currently the best-performing L2. If we look at speculating coins from the perspective of MEME, we will definitely look for the one with the most currency holding addresses and the most users’ attention. The same is true for ARB.
At present, his various data are the best. In addition, the protagonist of the next round of bull market is L2. Big funds will look for the one with the most users and the highest attention as a hype. ARB will be more ideal than the other few, with a wider audience. In the long run, there is room for imagination in the fully automated DAO that ARB's team develops, and the use of token rights and interests in L3.
However, these are long-term views, which are applicable to the aforementioned ETH currency-based valuation, but what about the short-term? Then be vigilant, ETH is good enough, right? From 1400 to 80, what about ARB, should no one think that 1.2 is the bottom of history? Then directly increase to 5U to kill public chains in seconds, and increase to 20U to kill ETH in seconds, right?
Therefore, it is good to find a good target, know what price is reasonable (reasonable only means that you have the opportunity to obtain a profit following the market), and know what price is particularly ideal, such as 0.5, which is very good. A sack of BTC is about to be sold, and the BTC has fallen to 10,000, so 0.2 is not unusual. Now it seems that it really feels like talking about the Arabian Nights, but in 2022, the currency circle will always give us bigger "surprises".
Therefore, things become very simple. Find a good target, buy part of it, buy it again when it falls, and sell it in the bull market, which is very worry-free. It is nothing more than how to formulate a buying plan, how to make buying safer, and better able to deal with various short-term risks.
Last time I was $BLUR FOMO was a bad thing, and I lost a lot of money, because I was too optimistic and didn't think about a good trading plan.
No one can predict short-term prices, please believe this firmly, the key is the trading plan.
2. Waiting for undervaluation
A reasonable valuation method, compared with ETH, may be 6%-20% of the full circulation market value of ETH. This consideration will be better than the U standard. For the U standard, it is not impossible to use the current 1.3 as an anchor.
In terms of strategy, that is to buy a little bottom position near 1, such as 30%, and if it is pulled to 3 or even 5 or higher in the short term, part of it will be released.
Because the vicinity of 1 is an anchor, if it is low, it will rise, and if it is high, it may fall back.
For other money, keep U or E, it depends on each person's style.
Generally speaking, these strategies are simple and feasible. I also wrote 28 position management in "Smart Investors (Currency Circle Edition)", but in fact, because of greed, I often stud out of bounds. When the market is good, it goes smoothly. If the market is not good, it is easy to lose money.
It is better to earn less and lose less, slow is fast.
3. Sit tight and wait for takeoff
The hotspots in the currency circle change very quickly, and many projects are indeed very empty. If you want to grow old with him, he will make you unable to escape.
But for high-quality targets, it is very worthwhile to use this long-term acquisition method and wait for the FOMO of the market to rise.
The leaders of the various sectors I mentioned above can actually use similar valuation methods to find out where they can exchange for the anchor of ETH. Of course, ARB, the protagonist of today’s gathering, will not start.
In the last round of the bull market, what impressed me the most was DOT, which was my most important miss—there was very little research at that time, and I would still miss it 100 times.
Because there are several details in it:
Before the split, before the currency was issued, I bought "futures" in some exchanges outside the market, that is, the air currency of DOT printed by the exchange itself, but the exchange promised that it would be honored in the future - because The exchange claimed that it had privately placed DOTs, which was indeed cashed out later.
The price at that time was roughly equivalent to about 1.1U, and it fell to around 0.7U in the middle. I didn’t have much capital at the time, and I bought tens of thousands of them. However, because it was futures, the trading volume was very small, and the K-lines were abnormal, so the outside market and hot spots changed wave after wave, and DOT did not keep up with the rise. It is very uncomfortable to only follow the decline.
So it was sold at a certain time, and only 10,000 were left.
The reason for staying is because I built three groups, called Polkadot Aircraft Base Group 123, but they never took off, and few people in the groups spoke.
Later, everyone knew that it was quickly pulled to 1U on OK.
For my 10,000 DOTs, I lost a few thousand in the contract, and then I made a low multiple order on Huobi near 6U, and I got 519. At that time, there seemed to be dozens. After closing the position I found that the actual profit I got was much smaller than myself.
My friend participated in the early private placement of DOT, and he just talked to me recently, saying that their coins are locked, so before listing on the exchange, he also wanted to package them all at around 0.5 and sell them to others, but in the end it was not easy to sell and did not sell. .
Later, it was unlocked when it was more than 20 years old, passively getting rich, 1800W in one wave.
Looking back at these, you will find that it is really difficult to hold on to speculative coins, especially when there are hot spots outside one after another.
Does DOT have any ecology and applications? No, it was the Chinese speculation at that time, domestic fire, foreign deserted, few developers, extremely high valuation, and the price skyrocketed.
Today is different from the past, the overall market perception has improved, and the valuation of air projects is not much higher, but I believe that the next round of bull market will still repeat many scenarios.
Therefore, I will think, which coin will get more, bigger and more lasting attention? LDO or ARB? GMX or BLUR?
After much deliberation, judging from the current trend, it is ARB.
Therefore, if you can take such a currency to the bull market at a price of 0.5 or even 0.2, and when it rises to about 20% of ETH, it will start to exchange half for ETH and half for U, which is really cool.
Of course, it’s not good to simply wait for such a low price, let alone stud at the current price, so let’s build a bottom position of 30% of the position.
One life is two, two is three, three is all things.
30% of the bottom position, hold it steady and make a fortune.
