Author: GryphsisAcademy . Compilation: Cointime.comQDD
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Yuga Labs launched a game called HV-MTLForge, which combines pet breeding and social competitive game elements, aiming to increase user participation in the NFT game market.
In the first season of the game, the enthusiasm of the players has decreased, and the consumption of APE tokens has also decreased. During the season, a total of approximately 241,765 APE tokens were consumed, equivalent to $520,000.
The second season introduced new elements and adjusted the reward mechanism. However, these changes do not appear to have significantly increased deposits of APE tokens.
If the recharge amount of APE tokens remains the same as the first season, the total recharge APE for the six seasons is expected to be about 1,440,000. This represents only 0.27% of the total circulating supply and may not have much effect on the overall circulation, especially since the deposited tokens may be sold.
Although the APE token price continues to fall, it does not appear to be a profitable investment at the moment. However, Yuga Labs' high standards for game quality show potential for future improvement and success.
1. Introduction
HV-MTL Forge is a game from YugaLabs between the world of pet breeding and leisure. It is a creative, social and competitive crafting game for HV-MTLNFT holders. As a Web3 company focusing on NFT, Yuga Labs uses HV-MTL Forge to further expand its influence in the NFT game market. Pet breeding and social competitive games have always been popular with players. With the launch of HV-MTLForge, Yuga Labs aims to attract more user participation and promote the development of the game through elements of creativity, social interaction and competition among NFT holders . This strategy may help enhance Yuga Labs' position in the NFT gaming market and increase user engagement within the community.
The main fun and goal of the game is to create a melting pot that keeps your HVs (the "pets" that need to be bred in the game) happy and productive. You need to build and decorate your furnace, win community votes, get the most votes for your HV and furnace. The more forging votes you accumulate, the better the rewards you get.
The game is divided into 6 seasons, each lasting 3 weeks. Currently, the first season has ended and the second season has begun. Although the content of the game may not be very rich, the future development prospects and blueprint planning are quite broad.
With Season 1 wrapping up, let's take a deep dive into some key metrics and what they mean!
2. Operating indicators for the first season
In order to track the performance of the game, we created a dashboard to evaluate the operation of the first season according to several dimensions such as NFT minting, holding, trading and in-game APE token recharge. By analyzing these data, we can understand the operation of the first season. Next, we will summarize the updated content of the second season.
2.1 NFT casting details
Regarding the minting of HV-MTL NFT, the total supply is 30,000 pieces. 28,056 NFTs have been minted so far, and the remaining 1,955 have not yet been minted.
HV-MTL acts as a passport to the game. The casting process involves burning SewerPass, and casting HV-MTL NFT according to the ranking in Dookey Dash. Dookey Dash is a casual game previously launched by Yuga and is an important part of Yuga's game ecosystem.
In the official Twitter announcement of Bored Ape Yacht Club, it was mentioned that 789 SewerPasses with Rank=0 cannot mint HV.
By adding up these numbers, we can calculate 23,752 (burned Sewer Passes) + 3,515 (unminted Sewer Passes) + 789 (Rank=0) = 28,056, which exactly matches the total number of minted HV NFTs.
2.2 NFT holding details
As can be seen from the table, the total number of addresses holding NFT is 9,752, of which 6,222 addresses only hold 1 NFT. The address holding the most NFTs is Yuga’s multi-signature wallet, holding 4,295 NFTs (from unminted and Rank=0 Sewer Passes). Apart from Yuga, the address holding the second most NFTs holds 383. Among the top 100 addresses, the cumulative number of NFTs held accounted for 33.28% of the total number of NFTs, indicating a moderate degree of holding. Furthermore, only 12 of the first 100 holders made deposits.
2.3 NFT transaction data
In the overall trend, the reserve price presents a gradual downward trend. Transaction volume increases significantly in the days following an important announcement or game launch. However, in other time frames, the trading volume is not optimistic.
2.4 APE Token Consumption
In the first few days before the launch of the game, both the number of daily recharge addresses and the total amount of daily recharge increased significantly, but then gradually declined. The peak of the number of recharge addresses appeared on the third day, which was 531 addresses; and the peak of the total daily recharge amount appeared on the second day, which was 24,436 APE tokens.
We can observe that when the game was first launched, the enthusiasm of the players peaked, but then gradually declined. From this, we can infer that the game mechanics and gameplay of the current first season may not be enough to attract players, or many players are not used to Yuga's long-term development gameplay.
As of July 21, at the end of the first season, a total of 241,765 APE tokens were consumed, equivalent to approximately $520,000. The total number of deposit addresses is 1,561, and each address deposits an average of 155 APE tokens.
Among the top 100 depositors, the number one player deposited 8,893 APE tokens, which is approximately equal to $20,000. The second-ranked player deposited 6,235 APE tokens, and the third-ranked player deposited 4,537 APE tokens. As you can see from the data, the spending power of the top players is considerable, and the revenue generation of the game is quite impressive.
3. Main update of the second season:
1) The theme of the second season is "Moist Furnace Summer", and new floor tiles and decorations have been added to turn your furnace into a summer beach. The image below shows the promotional image for the second season.
2) Adjustments have been made to AMP levels determined by rankings. Please refer to the graph above for the relationship between rankings and AMP ratings. The legendary rank is still 133, and the other ranks have changed to benefit players who join the game later.
3) Added benefits for BAYC, MAYC and BAKC holders, allowing them to receive corresponding decorations at the end of the second season.
4. $APE Token Investment Analysis
From an investment perspective, the total supply of APE tokens is 1 billion and the circulating supply is 368 million. Currently, the largest source of inflation for APE tokens is the release of staking rewards, which will release 100 million APE tokens (10% of the total supply) within the first year. Therefore, the current APE is still facing greater inflationary pressure.
In Yuga’s previous game DookeyDash, it can be seen from the figure below that the APE tokens deposited by users were eventually transferred to Coinbase, indicating that there may be selling pressure.
Although the APE receiving wallet of the HV-MTL game has not yet shown any external transactions, we can infer that the recharged APE tokens are very likely to be eventually sold by the project team on the secondary market.
From the above text, we can also see that there are not many updates in the second season. The core content is the change of the theme style, which does not significantly increase the recharge of APE tokens. Therefore, assuming that the amount of deposits in each season is similar to that of the first season, which is about 240,000 APE tokens, the total amount of APE deposited by players over 6 seasons will be about 1,440,000. According to the schedule, the 6 seasons will last about 4 months and end in early November 2023. According to the token unlock data, at this time, the total circulation supply of APE will be about 560 million pieces, and the recharged APE only accounts for about 0.27% of the total circulation supply, which has little impact on the overall circulation. In addition, these top-up tokens may be sold.
Since the Otherside land sale, the price of APE tokens has continued to fall, and the market expects that Yuga's game layout will absorb the selling pressure brought by mortgages. Judging from the historical events of the APE token, except for the short-term speculation and price increase after the release of the Dookey Dash trailer, the price of APE has been steadily decreasing, even during the official launch period of the Dookey Dash game. HV-MTL has failed to meet market expectations for absorbing mortgage selling pressure, both in the pre-launch phase and after the official launch. Although the game has a certain quality, the demand for APE has little impact, and the recharged APE has not been destroyed or destroyed, and it is more likely to be sold in the market. Therefore, we believe that APE is not a favorable investment target at present, and Yuga still needs to further enhance the potential of APE.
5. Conclusion
The results of the first season of HV-MTL were disappointing, mainly due to external market dynamics, especially the current NFT market. The limited in-game utility of $APE Tokens may also make it difficult for games to attract and retain players. The incentives offered to early adopters were not enough to spur mass adoption, as can be seen from the reserve price and transaction data on our Dune dashboard . Enhancing the in-game usage of the $APE token could help boost its value, increase market visibility, and create more excitement around the game. Despite the game's challenges, its high quality is reflected in the game's materials and details, reflecting Yuga Labs' high standards.
Going forward, we look forward to Yuga Labs being able to expand the in-game utility of $APE tokens and improve game mechanics to attract more users. Given Yuga's excellent operational capabilities and potential for game improvement, HV-MTL remains a promising project. So we'll be keeping a close eye on the progress of this fascinating game.
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