A. Market View
1. Macro Liquidity
Monetary liquidity has become looser. U.S. CPI data in October cooled more than expected and fell to the lowest level in two years, consolidating market expectations that the Federal Reserve has completed raising interest rates. The possibility of an interest rate cut in June 2024 is more than 50%. The U.S. dollar index fell for the week, while the U.S. stock market rose for the week. Crypto market performance dwarfs U.S. stocks.
2. Whole market conditions
Top 100 gainers by market capitalization:
BTC has consolidated its adjustment this week, and capital risk preferences have gradually shifted to Altcoin. Market hot spots revolve around BTC inscriptions, public chains and sub-new stocks. Sub-IPO stocks have a better chip structure and usually ferment in the later stages of the market. Big funds are speculating on public chains, and SOL and Cosmos ecosystems (KUJI, TIA, RUNE, INJ, etc.) have performed relatively well. The small funds of retail investors speculated on BTC Inscription, and the wealth effect was obvious after it increased dozens of times.
1. TIA: This year’s ETH ecological theme is modularity and data availability. TIA is the Cosmos ecosystem, currently mainly used for ETH modularization. The TIA chip washout is relatively thorough, the airdrop has been released, and the pledge needs to be unlocked for 21 days. Therefore, the circulation plate is small and suitable for being manipulated by the banker.
2. FTT: It is the platform currency of the exchange FTX. According to news, the FTX exchange is expected to restart in the second half of 2024. The bankrupt FTX exchange holds a large amount of SOL and FTT, which may have the motivation to sell.
3. DYDX: Originally on the ETH chain, it was later transferred to the Cosmos ecosystem to build its own public trading chain. The test mainnet has recently been launched, and you can pledge dividends. However, there will be a large unlocking of US$600 million in December, which is approximately double the circulating supply, or a favorable pull will be released before the unlocking to provide liquidity for institutions to exit.
3. BTC market
1) Data on the chain
The income of BTC miners has increased significantly. BTC Inscription made a strong comeback last month, pushing transaction fees to a half-year high. There are still more than 150 days until the BTC halving, which is expected to occur at the end of April 2024.
The market value of stablecoins began to rise for the first time in nearly two years, rising by 1% in consecutive weeks after hitting bottom. New liquidity continues to flow into the market, driving the market to become more prosperous, and Altcoin have generally risen.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is the top range; when the indicator is less than 2, it is the bottom range. MVRV fell below the key level 1 and holders were in the red overall. The current indicator is 1.2, entering the recovery stage.
Crypto asset investment products have seen net inflows for 7 consecutive weeks, with the total inflow exceeding the US$1 billion mark. Institutional funding’s interest in the crypto market is likely to grow significantly in 2024.
2) Futures market
Futures funding rate: The rate is positive this week, and the bullish sentiment is strong. The market began to adjust after BTC rates hit the highest rate this year on November 12. The fee rate is 0.05-0.1%, and the long leverage is high, which is the short-term top of the market; the fee rate is -0.1-0%, the short leverage is high, and it is the short-term bottom of the market.
Futures positions: The total BTC positions rose slightly after adjustment this week, basically synchronizing with price fluctuations.
Futures long-short ratio: 0.7. Retail investor sentiment is bearish. Retail investor sentiment is mostly a reverse indicator, with a reading below 0.7 indicating panic and a reading above 2.0 indicating greed. The long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and the reference significance is weakened.
3) Spot market price
The market remains strong, with BTC hitting new highs after adjusting and consolidating. The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle is confirmed to be over, and new funds continue to flow into the crypto market, triggering a boom in Altcoin. The BTC spot ETF in November may be postponed, and it is expected that the benefits may be exhausted when it is actually passed.
B. Market data
1. The total lock-up amount of the public chain
2. TVL proportion of each public chain
TVL fell overall this week by US$300 million, down about 0.7%. The market first experienced a sharp drop this week, and then quickly made up for the loss. BTC once again tried to break above 38,000 but failed. TVL this week, the ETH chain rose by nearly 14%, the SOLANA chain rose by more than 17%, and has risen by more than 81% in the past month. Both OP chain and ARB chain have an increase of 4% and 5%. Mainstream public chains have all seen increases of more than 10%.
3. Lock-up volume of each chain protocol
1) ETH lock-up amount
2) BSC lock-up amount
3) Polygon lock-up amount
4) Arbitrum lock-up amount
5) Optimism lock-up amount
6) Base lock-up amount
4. ETH Gas Fee History
On-chain transfer fees are approximately $29.62, Uniswap transaction fees are approximately $15.35, and OpenSea transaction fees are approximately $5.96. Gas usage and transaction fees have increased significantly this week. From the perspective of gas consumption, Uniswap still occupies the top position, accounting for 12% of the entire market.
5. Changes in NFT market data
1) NFT-500 Index
2) NFT market situation
3) NFT trading market share
4) NFT buyer analysis
Floor prices for leading blue-chip projects rose and fell this week, with BAYC rising 1.2%, The Captainz falling 14%, and CloneX falling 9%. It is worth noting that Sofa Maker rose 2854% in the past week, an increase of nearly 30 times. The transaction volume of the NFT market has dropped significantly in the past week, but the number of repeat buyers and first-time NFT users has increased to a certain extent. The NFT market continues to be cold, and the time for recovery has not yet arrived.
5. Latest financing situation of the project
6. Post-investment dynamics
1) Mocaverse - Mocaverse, the NFT series of NFTAnimoca Brands, announced that the third phase of Moca ID Mint will be launched at 3:00 EST on November 16th. All eligible users can mint the ".moca" domain name without reservation. 2) Shardeum- Layer1
Shardeum tweeted that Sphinx Validator 1.7.2 is offline and the developers are currently investigating the root cause and plan to restart the network this week and perform additional checks and fixes. Node operators should shut down their nodes before a new version is released.
7. Other related
1) Foresight Ventures acquires a majority stake in The Block at a valuation of US$70 million. Foresight Ventures announced the acquisition of a majority stake in the encrypted media The Block. The transaction values The Block at US$70 million. The Block will continue to operate as an independent business and maintain its existing business lines. As part of the acquisition, Foresight Ventures CEO Forest Bai will serve as chairman of The Block's board of directors. In addition, Foresight Ventures partner Tony Cheng will also join The Block's board of directors. Larry Cermak continues as CEO of The Block.
Foresight Ventures will enhance The Block's unique strengths, with the goal of expanding its impact while ensuring the integrity of its editorial and research teams. The acquisition, which has been completed, will help Foresight's media business expand into the U.S. and European markets, while providing The Block with the necessary capital to expand into Asia and expand its product portfolio. 2) BGX announced the subscription of HK$710 million in new shares of BC Technology Group, the parent company of OSL. Cryptocurrency Group BGX made a strategic investment in BC Technology Group, the parent company of OSL, a licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong, and subscribed for new shares of approximately HK$710 million. This transaction is currently Subject to shareholder approval.
As previously reported, BC Technology Group, the parent company of OSL, was suspended from trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and applied for shares to continue to be temporarily suspended from trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange pending the company's announcement on the issuance of new shares (which constitutes inside information).
