November was a positive month for the market, with the “Uptober” resurgence. Pushing Bitcoin and Altcoin to new highs in 2023. Despite some downside volatility in the second half of the month, traders remain optimistic about the market's potential gains as December approaches. Altcoin such as Terra Luna Classic (LUNC), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Solana (SOL) are poised to reach new highs again due to the upcoming Bitcoin halving event and the possibility of Bitcoin spot ETF approval.
Macroscopic aspect
It can be seen from the BTC position data last week that small-scale investors are still the main force in increasing their holdings. As mentioned before, as the popularity of Inscription cools down, small-scale holders will inevitably decrease slowly. This week, high-net-worth investors appeared Overweight, but underweight at whale level. Generally speaking, the trading volume has not changed much. Asia and Europe are mainly selling, and US investors are mainly increasing holdings, but the follow-up is weak.
technical aspect
1. It’s not the weekend yet, but the volatility has entered the weekend fluctuations in advance. Yesterday, it fluctuated around 3.78 by 200 points for a day. Therefore, yesterday’s idea was to continue to hold short orders, reduce positions when the position is reached, continue to push if it falls below, and keep profits before flying. Eat more and eat less is what the market gives you. Yesterday’s short-term long order of 3.76 took a bite. All week long we have been highlighting the divergence that BTC would trade between 35k and 38k. There was a triple bearish divergence, and the RSI now suggests that this divergence may have fully materialized. If the structure does not break out, there will be no expectation of a general trend. If we talk about trends, the trend has not changed, and the long structure has not been destroyed. So first focus on the small structure to make the market change cycle
Views on the current market:
BTC : BTC has been weak near the 38,000 pressure level for a long time, but it is not weak per se. Looking back at 3.13 and 6.16, a large amount of funds were quickly gathered to go against the trend within a few days and reverse the key situation, leading to today's situation. At this time, it is not true weakness, but weakness that causes long and short differences in the market and finally completes a wave of surprise attacks.
ETH : The market continues to fluctuate with the BTC. Thanks to the recent popularity of meme projects, the transaction volume on the ETH chain has also increased, but this does not mean that there are more developers and innovations. This is what I have always said. It is not the reason for the bull market yet. The current market is only moving in one or two separate sectors. Most investors and developers have not been mobilized. I think the bull market must at least exceed 100 ETH gas, and it must Regularly, otherwise it would just be a small fight.
On January 10th, whether the Bitcoin spot ETF is approved will face its first big test
January 10 is the key date for this wave of Bitcoin spot ETF applications , followed by BlackRock’s date. If Cathie Wood’s application is rejected by the SEC, the same reasons for rejection will apply to other institutions.
There is still more than a month left before January 10th, and the market is still betting on the approval of ETFs, and the market's FOMO sentiment has reached its extreme. For example, Bitcoin's long-term chips have reached a record high, and CME's Bitcoin derivatives holdings have reached a record high. New highs, the price of BTC is also very strong
As for the result of ETF, if it is rejected, there is no doubt that the market will plummet. After all, the market in the past six months has been supported by ETF, and many buy the dips funds and leveraged funds will instantly lose support and be trampled; if it is passed, the market will have a The interpretation is that "buy when the wind blows and sell when the good news lands." Some funds may take profits, causing the market to fall temporarily. Then, under the stimulation of halving, interest rate cuts, etc., a long-term bull market will emerge.
Regardless of whether the ETF is passed or not, in the short term, the market imagination is not that big, and there is a phenomenon in the capital market: before every bull market starts, there will be a major adjustment that washes away a lot of chips.
Let’s talk about the rotation of each sector this round. Which ones are still not moving?
Let’s first review the market trend at the beginning of the year. In my mind, the order of sector rotation is AI > LSD > Hong Kong > Arb > Meme > LSDfi > ETF > Telebot > Gamefi > DWF > MK Leader > RWA.
Among them, you may not know what MK leader is. This section means strong banker, including sol, inj, rune rndr, and link.
The sections that have started the market this round include brc20, ai, solana ecology, binance launchpad, gamefi, meme, lsd, MK Leader, so we can make a subtraction and subtract the tracks that have started this round from the tracks that have started in the previous round. Yes, you will find that the tracks that are not currently launched include lsdfi, Hong Kong, arb ecology, ETF, telebot, rwa, etc. So next, in addition to panning for gold in popular sectors, we must also think about integrating the development of these sectors. Lay out the leading project, and prepare both the left and right sides.
There are many theme and concept currencies in the current market, all of which have risen from obscurity to everyone’s knowledge. In fact, there is no need to pay attention to and care about these currencies more often, because these are completely pawn currencies. The current market situation leaves people with endless illusions, but in the final analysis, revealing the bottom cannot change the nature of harvesting. It only takes two days for the trend of several months to be completely trapped. If you leverage these currencies, you will not be able to finish the leverage, so it is better to leave more. Strength is waiting for the wind to come.
Let me tell you what is the trend? What is a bull market? In fact, to put it in the most straightforward terms, in this market, one month has to withstand your efforts in the past 5-6 years. This is called a trend. The vast majority of people have become accustomed to misfortune after 5 to 6 years of hard work. When happiness suddenly comes, they are at a loss. Not only the technical level, the mental level and the cognitive level have been devastated, but in the end they will all A summary of past regrets has become a famous saying that has been passed down to this day: "It is difficult for a person to earn more than he knows. What he earns by luck will eventually be lost by strength."
Create a high-quality circle
Mainly spot goods
I will share some content: conditions as shown below:
The overall position is ≥10,000 u. If you want to join, please contact me~! Welcome to send me a private message~!
(The operating space for hundreds and thousands is too small. If not, you can also send a private message. As long as you have skills such as on-chain data, native dog crawling, etc., you can join if you pass the screening.) Purpose: To become bigger and stronger, and create greater glory. A bull market turnaround!
The article ends here. You can follow the official account (Xiao Ren’s Value Investment). If you have any questions, you can leave a message on the official account and I will reply to you in time~
