Has Bitcoin entered a new bull market?
In the early morning of December 6, Bitcoin successfully broke through the $44,000 resistance level in a short period of time, setting a new high since April 2022. At the time of writing this article, it has basically stabilized in the $43,000 price range. IntoTheBlock data shows that about 80% of Bitcoin wallets are currently "profitable", which is also the highest profit level for Bitcoin holders since December 2021. The current profit level of Bitcoin holders has basically reached the level of 2020. -The level before the 21-year bull market.
In this article, Bitkoala Kaola Finance will use six charts to conduct an in-depth analysis.
The first picture comes from the latest global asset market value ranking disclosed by 8marketcap, which shows that with the strong rebound in Bitcoin prices, its market value has surpassed Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway and Elon Musk’s Tesla The three giant companies of Lai, and Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta (formerly Facebook) have once again become the ninth largest asset in the world by market value.
The second picture shows the price trend of Bitcoin since May this year. You will find that there is a significant difference between the spot price of Bitcoin at the beginning of the year and the current spot price. The price range of Bitcoin at the beginning of the year was US$16,000, and then continued to rise, with the price range reaching $22,000 and quickly rose to $26,000. This level better explains the current level of Bitcoin profitability, which has doubled in value compared to the beginning of the year.
The third chart is the 180-day market capitalization to realized value ratio (MVRV) trend of Bitcoin shown by on-chain analysis company Santiment. The chart shows that Bitcoin holders have remained profitable since then, with only occasional trends below zero, and MVRV has remained above zero since around October 20, 2023, and the latest value shows that the MVRV ratio is about 24%, indicating that BTC holders will receive more than 20% if they choose to sell at the current market price. Profits, this trend also shows that once a full bull market occurs, more addresses may achieve profits.
So, if history repeats itself, what are the chances that Bitcoin will rise in price before the end of the year? The fourth chart above shows the Bitcoin supply and profit trend disclosed by CryptoQuant. The current indicator value is 83.13%, which is down from 84.36% on November 25. This is actually a positive trend, because when the indicator rises, it means As investors' profits end, it may lead to selling pressure, triggering a decline in Bitcoin prices.
But with a reduced supply of profits, this means Bitcoin has a chance to recover before the end of the year. Although $45,000 seems a bit far away, Bitcoin may have a chance to maintain a price range of $40,000. As long as this can be done, Bitcoin can maintain a good development trend.
Next, let’s take a look at the trend of the technical indicator Bitcoin Relative Strength Index (RSI). As shown in the fifth chart above, the current Bitcoin RSI has dropped to 46.23. This trend indicates that sellers are Dominant in the market, if this indicator falls below 40, then market participants can view this as an opportunity to buy Bitcoin at a discount and accumulate funds in this range, then the buying pressure may push BTC in a better direction. .
Another indicator to watch is the exponential moving average (EMA). The 20 EMA (blue line above) is currently above the 50 EMA (yellow line above), which suggests that BTC may continue to trade at a higher price over the next few weeks. within the current area.
The key indicator shown in the last analysis chart is the expenditure output profit margin (SOPR). SOPR shows the degree of profit realized by long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH). The higher the ratio value, the higher the ratio indicates long-term holding. Investors spend more on profits than short-term holders. Data shows that the current Bitcoin SORP indicator has increased but is still far from the high reached on November 1. This may mean that the current market has not peaked and still has greater upside potential. If short-term holders are in Supply and profit margins remain stable, and BTC may soon have bigger surprises.
