Author: AICoin
I never expected that January 1 would usher in the first brutal "bloodbath" of 2024, and the market was wailing!
In this silent battle, the dealers still use the classic tactic of pump-and-dump. Many users may not know the tricks. Let me give you a detailed analysis.
1. TRB is a strong currency
First of all, we must clearly understand that TRB is a currency that strengthens market control!
So how to identify this kind of strong banker currency? The best way is to use on-chain data, because bookmakers will not put a large number of coins on the exchange and must be on the chain.
On December 29, spot on chain posted a tweet, which stated that approximately 95% of TRB is in the hands of bankers. The statement here is that 20 whale addresses hold it, but we can think that the chips are highly concentrated.
Then let’s take a guess, compared to the 21 million BTC, what is the total amount of TRB ?
The answer is that the supply is only 1.95 million !
21 million BTC can be raised to 40,000 US dollars, and TRB can be raised to 1,000 US dollars. Logically speaking, this is not excessive. If 1,000 US dollars is not enough, then 500 US dollars can always be done! ! ! (Last night on OKX, TRB had already reached $700)
But just knowing that this is a strong banker coin is not enough. Why?
Because I don’t know how the dealer will operate, whether to pull the market or sell it, it all depends on the dealer’s idea, and it is difficult to follow.
So we need to use the next tool
2. Market sentiment
So how to analyze market sentiment?
Here, the editor provides 3 indicators: ① Position; ② LSUR; ③ Funding fee.
(1) Open interest
How to analyze the position?
This is the trend of open interest before the explosion:
The price is rising, the open interest is rising, and the trend is very good, indicating that big funds are going long.
So here, how should we distinguish whether bankers are going long or retail investors are going long?
This requires combining the second indicator-LSUR.
(2)LSUR
LSUR is a very practical indicator. LSUR >1 means retail investors are long, and LSUR <1 means retail investors are short.
The chart below shows that during the rise of TRB, LSUR rose simultaneously, which means that retail investors are following the bullish trend.
So now you are the bookmaker of TRB, what will you do?
Yes, I know how to wash dishes. The degree of washing dishes depends on your conscience!
Then the first classic scene occurred last night, with a sharp drop of 30% in a few minutes!
This dishwashing is very cruel! A 30% drop corresponds to 3x leverage, which means that in this wave, even if you open 3x long, it still won’t work!
Why is it 3 times?
Because a long time ago, the leverage area of okcoin was 3 times by default. Later, everyone also used 3 times leverage for arbitrage, and I felt that 3 times was very safe.
At this time, the dealer has finished washing the market. How many positions were sold during this wash? You can see how much the position has dropped. It's not bad. It's estimated that the liquidated position is 30 million US dollars.
Then what happened after TRB dropped a massive 30%?
Yes, all major media are reporting that TRB plummeted by 30%. It was on the front pages of all media for a while, and the discussion was very high!
What does this mean? This means that TRB has entered everyone's attention. Before, many people may not have looked at TRB at all and did not know what TRB was. After this promotion, many users knew about it, and then everyone started trading!
You know, traders' attention is a very important aspect, because without popularity, it is impossible to sell even if it is pulled up, and when the popularity increases, the next operation can officially begin!
Here we still use the LSUR indicator, why? Because this indicator is really easy to use and it can accurately judge the general direction of market makers and retail investors!
Bankers and retail investors are opposites. Only when there are more retail investors can bankers have enough to eat. We can see how retail investors view the TRB currency.
After TRB plummeted, everyone thought it would rebound, so it must be long. After falling last night, retail investors began to obviously long behavior because the LSUR indicator showed a significant rise.
Our thinking and LSUR data support this judgment, so TRB is expected to rise.
What’s next?
At this time, we need to use our main large order indicator !
250 dollars is a dividing point, because the large order data shows that after passing this position, the main force continues to place a lot of buy orders below the current price.
Why does it work like this?
Because it is necessary to attract market-making robots or some high-frequency robots, robots that rely on the OBI (orderbook imbalance) trading strategy help them actively buy to push up prices, and constantly use large-amount buying orders to push the robots to buy at market prices, thereby pushing the market price upwards. This is a classic operation from last night.
At 23:00 last night, after the TRB market price returned to its original point, what happened?
Prices moved sideways, open interest fell, and LSUR fell. What does this mean?
This means that everyone felt that TRB had reached its peak and began long on TRB, so positions were closed and positions began to fall, and retail investors began to short, causing LSUR to fall.
Last night, TRB moved sideways for a long time after reaching around 290. At this time, we will definitely think that the previous high is high! !
Therefore, a series of data show that retail investors are not optimistic about this position. If the price goes up, retail investors will still be determined to be short.
At this time, the consciousness of bankers and retail investors has changed significantly. Bankers are bullish and retail investors are bearish.
The hunting time begins! ! !
And oh, it's late at night, and it's still New Year's Day. Everyone can't help but spend time with their families, New Year's Eve, and sleep... This is why the explosion started in the early morning and ended in the morning, because it was targeted at the friends in the East Eighth District!
This picture is very classic. The main force’s crazy buying of large orders supports the price, and LSUR continues to fall.
Why can't the price fall?
Because the dealer feels that you want to buy, the dealer will buy it in advance, and then wait for you to increase the purchase price before selling it to you.
From US$250 to US$464, an increase of 80%. Can you guess how much money the banker used?
The answer is $40 million! By placing a large pending order of US$40 million, we accomplished the feat of pushing the price from US$250 to US$464! When it goes up again later, it is actually doing head-shipping. The main rise is from US$250 to US$464. At this stage, the banker only used about US$40 million in funds.
The dealer's control of the market is basically to suck, pull, and release. Now the pulling stage is over and it is the shipping stage. At the shipping stage, what is the best shipping method? Pump and Dump! ! !
The editor simply drew a pattern. After the dealer finished pulling up, he started his own shipment stage. After trading sideways, there was a sudden rise, attracting the technical analysts to buy, and then it fell rapidly and hit a stop loss. This wave is a test of the psychological quality of technical analysts. This time the decline has returned to around 464, which is actually a clear shipment. At this time, the deep correction will attract retail investors to buy again, thus continuously pushing up the price. However, because the dealers have been selling and shipping, the price moves slowly and cannot break through the previous high.
However, it should be noted that many times the second top in the crypto will break through the previous high, hit the short stop loss, and then fall. Therefore, this time when the price rises, the dealer has a kind heart, otherwise it will stop the loss at a high price before breaking through, and then plummet again, making you want to cry without tears.
There is kindness, but not much, because he gave a 70% drop! ! ! This decline basically exceeded 99% of people’s expectations!
Why can it be done like this? Because this is a currency that is controlled by funds, it cannot be explained by fundamentals and technical aspects.
So how do retail investors operate during the decline?
Let’s go back to the analysis of LSUR and positions. We retail investors like to buy the dips+ carry orders. Then during the decline, the positions increase and LSUR rises, which means that retail investors are taking long positions.
Also, you can pay attention to the highest price of US$555. Isn’t it very humorous? (It can be understood as a handicap language, 555 means crying, that is, I am going to smash it, you go ahead and cry. This situation has also appeared on the European and Italian BTCUSDT perpetual, 44444 US dollars)
Starting here, we need to mention the explosive funding rate!
(3) Funding rate
What happened last night was that Binance charges funding fees once every four hours, and the upper and lower limits for TRB funding fees are plus or minus 2%. The funding fee is -2%, collected every 4 hours. This temptation is very great.
The funding fee of -2% means that most people in the contract market are short TRB and selling TRB, causing the price of TRB to be lower than the spot price.
If retail investors are all short, then the main force must be long. LSUR also reflects such data characteristics, so we have verified one judgment point from multiple data sources.
However, generally unilateral traders rarely care about funding fees, so which users care about funding fees?
By the way, it’s an arbitrage trader!
What arbitrage opportunity emerged last night? TRB's funding fee is negative, and reverse arbitrage can be opened, but reverse arbitrage requires coins, but the banker usually borrows all the coins in advance to avoid someone having chips in his hand to interfere with his operation, so reverse arbitrage generally does not work. , so arbitrageurs generally use double contract arbitrage.
Applied here to TRB: Binance TRB USDT contract is long, OKX TRB USDT contract is short.
Why do it this way? The purpose is to eat the capital fee that is settled every 4 hours:
Binance funding fee is -2% (settled once every 4 hours) = -8%
OKX funding fee is -1.5% (settled once every 8 hours) = -1.5%
So let’s calculate the profit. The 8-hour profit is 6.5%. And because it is arbitrage, long and short, it should be relatively safe. So last night, most arbitrageurs saw this trading opportunity and ran to do arbitrage.
However, arbitrage is also risky, especially cross-exchange arbitrage. The core risk is that the exchange will close the currency withdrawal, and then the currency price difference between the two sides will be out of control. There is also a risk that the currency is pulled too hard and one side is If it breaks down, it will be one-sided. If you close the position quickly after the explosion, the loss will not be particularly large. However, if you keep one side after the explosion, it will cause unilateral risks.
Then we saw the price of OKX of more than 700 US dollars. Because OKX was shallow, arbitrageurs opened short orders on OKX, so there was a series of short positions. In the end, the price of OKX was much higher than the price of Binance. OKX's contract price of more than 700 is caused by arbitrageurs' serial liquidation of positions.
Of course, there is also a kind of arbitrage that takes advantage of the price difference. If you can do it well, it is also very profitable.
Arbitrage is an important participant in the market, but improper risk management can cause big problems. But last night's TRB was a nightmare for arbitrageurs, and many people were liquidated. Therefore, you must pay attention to risk control when trading, set a stop loss position resolutely, and do not let a small loss turn into a catastrophe. At the same time, if you can combine the main large orders and trade with the banker last night, the harvest will be very rich.
Now TRB has completed the process of placing stocks and selling down. Because there are so many users who have liquidated their positions in this wave, it is expected that there will be no new market in a short time. Even if there is a new market, it will still need to go through another wave of fund-raising and washing. .
Summarize
The review of TRB’s bloodbath is basically over. To sum up, if we want to make money in this wave, we need to make full use of the following methods:
1. Discover Qiangzhuang Coin
2. Abnormalities in funding fees, LSUR, and open positions were found.
3. Conduct main capital analysis based on main large orders (or large transactions)
4. Set strict stop loss levels
Combining the main large orders is the best choice to grasp the banker's capital control. Whether buying or selling, it will be reflected on the market in the end. As long as there are orders and transactions, we can monitor it, so everyone must make good use of these methods!
