This "Full Moon Scimitar" caused the first wave of long and short explosions in the new year.
Written by: Weilin
At the beginning of 2024, Tellor Tributes token TRB, an old project on the oracle circuit, completed a "roller coaster" performance.
On December 31st, TRB, which had been rising from around $11 to $268 in over 3 months, did not brake and instead topped out near $590 in the next 6 hours. An even more surprising scene followed. Within 6 hours, TRB plummeted to around $149.
In 12 hours, there were sharp rises and plummets. TRB, whose logo resembles a "full moon scimitar", caused the first "long and short double explosion" tragedy in the crypto asset market in the new year. The entire network's contract liquidation amount was US$73.1 million, and long and short investors They were all angry, they had been tricked by this "demon coin".
An existing voice in the market has finally been heard: TRB with a maximum supply of 2,586,819 has been controlled. Spot On Chain, an on-chain analysis tool, previously calculated that “of the 2.5 million TRB in circulation, approximately 1.7 million are on exchanges, while 20 whales hold 660,000.”
The fund-raising behavior of some addresses was taking place in August 2023 when TRB started to rise. At that time, the crypto asset investment and service organization LD Capital mentioned TRB's on-chain position building behavior in a report. Perhaps because of this, some investors pointed the controller at LD, prompting Lou Jiyue, a partner of the institution, to come forward to clarify by publicly offering a reward of US$10 million for evidence.
Afterwards, some on-chain analysts pointed out that before TRB plummeted on January 1, the Tellor Tributes team deposited 4211 TRB into the centralized exchange Coinbase. On-chain data shows that the team transferred 7,000 TRB to Coinbase 2 days ago, when TRB continued to rise.
In the illiquid TRB market, over-leveraged trading positions also contributed to TRB's sudden rise and fall. Some traders have observed that TRB’s daily contract trading volume exceeds US$500 million, and “there are a lot of gamblers.”
With whale controlling the market, team shipments, and excessive leverage, the uncontrolled “demon coin” TRB has thus completed the first cut of the new year.
Long and short double explosion "Full Moon Scimitar" 12-hour swing harvest
At 9:25 pm on the night before New Year's Eve, TRB, which had been rising continuously for 4 months, climbed from $268.88. By 6:15 pm the next morning, it had risen to $593.09, an increase of 120.5%.
Just after TRB successfully attracted the market's attention, TRB fell off a cliff in the next hour, falling to a low of $143.69 within 6 hours, a drop of 312.75% from the high.
The violent fluctuations in a short period of time directly caused the "double explosion of long and short" in the contract market. Data shows that in the 24 hours before 8 a.m. on January 1, the liquidation amount of the TRB futures contract was US$73.1 million, of which short positions were liquidated at US$44.49 million and long orders were liquidated at US$28.61 million.
24-hour TRB futures contract liquidated to $73.1 million
In addition to the liquidation that occurred in centralized exchanges, decentralized DeFi applications were not immune.
On January 1, @kain.eth, founder of the decentralized synthetic asset issuance protocol Synthetix (SNX), stated on the X platform that due to abnormal fluctuations in TRB, SNX pledgers lost approximately US$2 million.
@kain.eth explained that TRB originally had an open interest limit of $250,000 on Synthetix, but as its price rose in the past few months, this limit has expanded to $12.5 million and should have been lowered. But risk control is not strict. "The price of TRB surged today and several short positions were opened. However, due to the misalignment between the spot price and the contract price, the arbitrage balance failed. This is a lesson for Synthetix."
TRB’s price anomaly also appears on exchange quotes. At around 10:00 on January 1, the price of TRB/USDT on OKX was quoted at US$233.24, while the price of TRB/USDT on Binance was US$170.74, with a price difference of 36.6%.
In fact, TRB, whose logo looks like a "full moon scimitar", appeared as early as 2019. It is the native token of the decentralized oracle protocol Tellor Tributes. The total supply is 2.586819 million, and the current circulation is 2.553723 million. Almost in full circulation.
CoinGecko, a third-party data platform for the crypto asset market, shows that in early October 2019, TRB entered the secondary market with an initial price of only $0.8. It climbed to $146.14 during the crypto bull market in 2021 and fell below $100 four days later. In the following year, TRB prices have been fluctuating in double digits.
The price of TRB has been quiet for nearly 2 years, but suddenly started to change in August 2023
From the beginning of 2023, TRB remained between 8-10 US dollars. Until September 16, TRB rushed from around 10 US dollars to more than 40 US dollars in less than 1 month, which doubled several times. On some exchanges at the end of September, it even Over $60. After half a month of recovery, it continued to rise from around US$46 on October 13, reaching a stage high of US$139.92 in early November, and finally surged higher and lower at the end of the year, "bloodbathing" the contract market.
Such a project that was born in 2019 and had been half-dead for nearly two years suddenly came back to life in September last year, fluctuating all the way up, and by the end of the year turned into a "killer" with both long and short explosions. When something goes wrong, there must be a monster.
The whale has been lying dormant for 4 months to attract funds and control the market.
After "Demon Coin" released its demonic energy, the situation of the whale control gradually became clear.
In fact, on December 29, when TRB rose to $225, the on-chain data analysis tool Spot On Chain issued a reminder message, "Of the 2.5 million $TRB in circulation, approximately 1.7 million are trading So, 20 whales hold 660,000.”
After analyzing the data, Spot On Chain also said that the holding whales accumulated TRB at a favorable price of $15 in August and September. Since then, the price of the token has increased 15 times, earning a total of $120 million. (Realized profit of $40 million, unrealized profit of $80 million). Over the past two months, whales have slowly deposited their tokens onto exchanges, creating a pump-and-sell cycle to liquidate their holdings.
Everyone who has experienced crypto asset players in 2017 knows that when chips are excessively concentrated in the hands of one or a few people, tokens become a tool for market makers to manipulate prices.
Spot On Chain suggested at the time that since most of the tokens were still in the hands of whales, they controlled the game. Prices may experience sharp increases to clear short positions and hard sell-offs to liquidate their holdings.
Spot On Chain's tip finally came true, and just six hours into the new year, TRB took a dive.
So, who are these whales controlling TRB’s chips?
Unfortunately, although the publicity of the blockchain address allows anyone to see the flow direction of the assets, the anonymity of the blockchain does not allow the outside world to know the specific identity of the holder.
Someone pointed the trader to a crypto asset investment service provider. On social media, some people criticized LD Capital, which is familiar to many people in the Chinese crypto.
In response to this, Lou Jiyue, a partner of LD Capital, responded on multiple social channels such as If you post information about TRB price fluctuations, you will be offered a reward of US$10 million; otherwise, if you disseminate the information with more than 3,000 views, we reserve the right to pursue relevant legal responsibilities.”
The reason for the accusation against Lide Capital may be a report on the analysis of TRB funds released by the agency on August 28 last year. In fact, LD Capital mentioned in the report that some addresses were collecting TRB.
The report shows that large fluctuations were observed on the chain on August 21, which was the highest level since January this year and was much greater than the previous data. At the same time, the price did not fluctuate significantly and hovered around $10. “We think someone may be opening a position on the chain at this time.”
Without correspondence between addresses and identities, this report cannot prove the accusation of capital control, but the report does prove that TRB Whale is indeed accumulating funds at low points.
Whales who accumulate money are uncertain, but those who sell at high points are caught out.
On January 1, the on-chain analysis tool Lookonchain reported based on tracking data that a wallet address related to the Tellor Tributes development team transferred 4,211 TRB to the exchange Coinbase after the price of TRB soared. At current prices, these TRBs were worth $2.4 million.
Addresses related to the Tellor team have transferred TRB to Coinbase multiple times
According to on-chain data, this address starting with 0x1B8 transferred 12,735 TRB to Coinbase in the month of December, and also received 20,000 TRB through Tellor's multi-signature.
Accordingly, the Tellor Tributes team cannot be ruled out profiting from TRB's highs.
Analyst @Riyad_carey pointed out that the Tellor Tributes team deposited TRB into Coinbase a few hours before the price plummeted, but the sell-off on Binance occurred about 2 minutes earlier than Coinbase. However, after the Tellor Tributes team deposited TRB into Coinbase for the second time, there was a sell-off of $350,000 in the market, causing the TRB price to fall from $500 to $400. He believes that the Tellor Tributes team does not rule out liquidation, but the real whales that seriously manipulate prices are hidden in Binance.
This analysis also coincides with the data tracked by Spot On Chain. The whale address prompt collection data established by this tool shows that since September, most of the TRB in the whale wallets has flowed to the world's largest crypto asset exchange. Binance.
According to on-chain data, even today (January 5), a Binance address still ranks first among TRB holders, with a total of 771,600 TRB, accounting for 29.82% of the total supply; The exchange with the second largest volume is OKX, with a total of 189,700 TRB, accounting for 7.2%.
In addition, TRB in the top ten non-exchange whale addresses accounts for 24.85% of the total supply, approximately 642,900, and the chips are still concentrated.
Excessive Leverage "Casino" No Survivors
Investors affected by the sudden rise and fall of TRB are not only scolding the whale who are hiding in the dark to control the market, but also expressing dissatisfaction with the exchanges for allowing the whale to slaughter investors. Some users have called on Binance, Coinbase, OKX and other exchanges This "stand-alone coin" has been removed from the shelves.
After the incident, Binance took temporary measures and suspended TRB’s currency withdrawal service. However, as of press time, no exchange has yet delisted TRB.
The liquidation amount of more than 70 million has indeed caused heavy losses to many people, and excessive leverage trading in the market has actually contributed to the sudden rise and fall of TRB.
As early as August, when Led Capital discovered that TRB was attracting funds on the chain, it also discovered that TRB's contract trading volume and open interest also increased at that time. On the morning of August 26 alone, TRB's 24-hour contract trading volume increased by 151%, and contract positions increased by 93%. "The positions of large accounts are in a long position, and the account long-short ratio is 0.96, indicating that a large number of retail investors are short."
TRB contract market data recorded by LD Capital on August 26
At that time, TRB's trading volume was still US$30.5 million, and its open interest was US$12.8 million. On August 28, just 2 days later, TRB’s contract trading volume and open interest increased rapidly. “In the last 24 hours, its contract trading volume was US$1.6 billion and its open interest was approximately US$68 million.”
August is the stage when whales begin to accumulate funds. The rise in TRB prices also begins to attract futures contract traders to enter the market. The positions in the TRB contract market also begin in August.
Changes in TRB contract positions in 2023 and liquidation data since October
According to common sense, no currency will continue to rise. But TRB ignores common sense. After entering October, "Air Force" became a frequent liquidation during TRB's rise. By October 26, TRB, with a total market value of US$250 million, had a position of US$355 million in the contract market, with a funding rate of -1.38%.
After the continuous liquidation of short positions, some traders have sensed the crisis and gave up trading on TRB, while there are still some people who do not believe in evil and always want to take a wave of short profits at high points, but they have repeatedly failed.
On December 29, before TRB hit $500, Binance user Myth, who had short the token, recalled that he had short TRB near $35 and was lucky enough to survive a big correction, but continued to try. After short short in the band, the profit retracted by nearly 80%, and then the target was abandoned.
He speculated that the big bankers who held the currency continued to sell the currency by manipulating the price, and then used contract leverage to make profits. "If you are still playing contracts, it is best to stay away from this currency. Now the daily contract transaction volume of this token is more than 500 million U. It can only be said that there are really many gamblers."
Two days later, TRB surged higher within 6 hours and dived within 6 hours. Both long and short positions exploded, leaving the contract market with no survivors.
Looking back, TRB, with a supply of only 2.58 million, is almost fully circulated. In a market where the price itself is not high, it is easy for this type of crypto asset to be acquired at a low price. When the dealers have more and more chips in their hands, they almost have the right to draw the K-line, while the "closed-eyes players" in the contract market can only let it be slaughtered.
The "demon coin" TRB exists and can continue to exist after releasing its demonic energy, which once again proves the lack of investor protection in the crypto asset market. In such an environment, there is only one way for investors to protect themselves: to keep their eyes open and stay away from market targets that lack liquidity.
