[Several important data to help you make decisions about the market outlook]
1) From the calculation of BTC 3.8w to the present, the total market value of stablecoins has increased by 11 billion US dollars. There was a significant growth rate last week, with an additional US$3.7 billion in stablecoin issuance.
2) Since March 6, the main body of BTC pulls have become Asian funds. There are signs of US funds retreating, and BTC fell by 15% in the US time zone. This is not a good sign.
3) The total inflow of ETFs is 9.5 billion US dollars, so the capital inflow of stable coins still exceeds the capital inflow of ETFs, and is the biggest driving force for the rise of the crypto. However, ETFs can only purchase BTC, so ETF funds are more dominant in the rise of BTC.
4) In terms of large BTC users, the number of addresses with more than 1,000 began to drop by 50 places in the past week, while the number of addresses with more than 100 increased by 86 places.
1 Analysis of the total market value of stablecoins
From the perspective of the total market value of stablecoins, here are some data:
1) At the lowest point of this market cycle, which was September 10, 2023, the total market value of stablecoins was US$121 billion.
2) At the lowest point after the adoption of ETF, BTC was adjusted to 38,500, that is, on January 23, 24, the total market value of stablecoins was US$128.3 billion.
3) Last Monday, the total market value of stablecoins was US$135.6 billion
4) This Monday, the total market value of stablecoins was US$139.3 billion.
In other words, the last round of market prices began to reach the lowest point after the adoption of ETF, and a total of US$7.3 billion in stablecoins were issued. In the past month or so, an additional US$11 billion has been issued in stablecoins. There was a significant growth rate last week, with an additional US$3.7 billion in stablecoins being issued.
For the mainstream stablecoins USDT and USDC, USDT has increased from 82.9 billion US dollars to 102 billion US dollars since September 10, 2023, with an additional 19.1 billion US dollars issued. USDC increased from US$26.1 billion to US$30.2 billion, an increase of US$3.9 billion. A real issuance theme for USDT.
2Analysis of the total market value of Altcoin
In the above figure, a) black represents the total market value of cryptocurrency; b) green represents the total market value of cryptocurrency after excluding BTC and ETH; c) orange represents the total market value of USDT. From the above figure, we can intuitively see arrive:
1) Since the bottom in September 23, the growth of the total market value of BTC+ETH has obviously exceeded that of other Altcoin, and has exceeded it most of the time. Therefore, first of all, congratulations to those who hold large positions in BTC and ETH. Secondly, if your current income cannot beat BTC and ETH, don't doubt yourself. Don't look at the people all over the Internet who are promoting their earnings dozens of times, but the actual overall income of the copycats lags behind BTC and ETH.
2) We observe the increase in the market value of USDT, and it is obvious that the increase rate is lower than the increase rate of cryptocurrency. There are two reasons for this. 1) It is because ETF funds and U.S. dollar funds, mainly coinbase, are also like this. 2) The more the market rises, the more people in the market adopt the strategy of holding positions. Therefore, it does not require a large amount of funds to pull the market.
3 ETF data analysis
Judging from ETF data, as of March 8, ETFs held BTC net assets of US$55 billion. The cumulative net inflow was US$9.5 billion . In comparison, the additional issuance of stablecoins was US$11 billion. Therefore, the capital inflow of stablecoins still exceeds the capital inflow of ETFs and is the biggest driving force for the rise of the crypto. However, we know that the funds in the ETF are only used to purchase BTC. Stablecoin funding also includes other Altcoin. Therefore, ETF funds are more dominant in the rise of BTC.
From the above net inflow relationship between prices and ETFs, it can be clearly seen that the coupling between ETF and BTC prices is very strong . Around January 20, when there was a net outflow, BTC was in a state of bottoming out. When there is net inflow, BTC is in a rising state. In other words, US ETF funds dominate the price factors of BTC
4 Trends of U.S. funds and Asian funds
Looking at the contribution of various time zones to BTC's rise over the past month. From the very beginning, the United States time zone has been in a leading position, that is, the United States is the largest driving force for BTC, and the contribution of Asian funds to BTC is relatively small. However, starting on March 6, U.S. funds showed signs of retreat, and BTC fell by 15% in the U.S. time zone. The main body of the market pull has become Asian funds.
And judging from the accumulation of the past month, the contribution of Asian funds to the rise of BTC has far exceeded that of the United States. Historically, Asian funds haven't lasted very long, so this may not be a very good sign.
5 BTC big account data analysis
In the past month or so, the stock of BTC on exchanges has been in a declining stage, from 2.363 million to 2.28 million, with a net outflow of 83,000. At the same time, the number of large households holding more than 10,000 BTC dropped by 1, the number of large households holding more than 1,000 BTC dropped by 9, while the number of large households holding 100 BTC increased by 190. Therefore, the net outflow from BTC exchanges is basically for large investors with about 100 positions. Judging from the data of the past week, the stock of BTC on exchanges continues to decline, while the number of large households holding more than 10,000 BTC has not changed. The number of large households holding 1,000 BTC has dropped significantly, with an overall decrease of about 50, while the number of large holdings of 100 BTC has increased by about 80.
