For social products, this year will definitely be a year of explosive growth.

As soon as Friend.tech's token was launched, it brought a "bloody" battle. On Twitter, the bulls believed that there were no weaklings in social networking and would never sell a single coin for less than $100. The bears believed that a junk product plus a few users was overvalued at $1.

Today, two KOLs also expressed their views. Let's see how they analyze it.

Let’s first look at the affirmative view (bullish), from Chrestian.

Bulls: Suffocating for dreams, community-based projects have a future

Let me point out the elephant in the room: @pumpdotfun and @solana create about 15,000 On-Chain meme per day. @friendtech creates 25,000 On-Chain meme per day so far (club). People in the old days still thought of friendtech as a social product, nono, it has now become a ruthless coin issuance machine on base. Everyone sees the opposite side of it: the product is garbage, and the transaction tax is high. However, I see the other side.

Why can such a rubbish experience and such a stupid product still lead to such a wave of asset issuance? You should know that Club should not have any expectation of making money. To be honest, I haven't used FT for half a year, but I think Club is quite interesting recently. If this round of bull market is European and American bull market, and meme bull market, then FT's products may have accidentally walked into the main narrative.

The 200 million fdv that is currently standing strong is a junk product in front of you, a symphony played by a large number of selling pressures after the opening of the market, and the body of an elephant that is about to die. Until now, I have not bullished that this will be the biggest surprise of this cycle, because the founder is too crazy. But let us imagine its possibilities together, let us suffocate for the dream together. The VC bubble is a thing of the past, and community growth is the future.

What lies before you is a money-printing machine with an estimated annual revenue of over 100 million US dollars (of course the curve may decline), a crypto product with daily active users in the five or six figures, the core of the base chain, and all settlements on it are in native tokens, and dividends are available. What reason do you have to take over billions of FDV, most of which are held by VCs and teams, with ridiculously low incomes, and not at all huge L RTs and AIs? And it's paradigm backed.

Okay, let's take a look at the bears' point of view. The following content comes from Crypto Vedo.

Shorts: FT has many drawbacks and has strong competitors

This time I disagree with C. I am clearly bearish on @friendtech V2, and I think the current V2 is just a Dunkirk retreat to cover Paladin's withdrawal.

Back to the three-plate theoretical framework, FT is a combination of mutual aid plate for pumping water, dividend plate for control, and split plate for growth.

The drawbacks of FT that I proposed in the Three-Disk Theory 4 are:

- Split stagnation: There is a limit to the number of keys that can be split based on the KOL's personal influence, one per person. Once the CT population limit is reached, it will stagnate.

- Market Beta Change: New splits provide higher returns, such as inscriptions, on-chain meme, and pumps

- Stock flooding: There is no effective principal lock-up or sunk cost mechanism to lock in the selling pressure of the key

- Expected crash: This one needs no elaboration

So does the new version solve the problem? Hardly!

- Split stagnation: Key was abandoned and Club was changed. This style has the flavor of Ubank turning to Nebula. But unlike Pump which is based on meme, Club is still based on KOL personal influence. The community of Twitter pushing rug coins has no memory, but Club key was directly bankrupted in FT due to the sharp drop in rights protection. This is no different from Key, so the final split speed will repeat the same mistakes.

- Market Beta: The situation has worsened, with more splits in the market than at the end of last year.

- Flood discharge of stock: Use the second pool to solve the problem after issuing the coin. Everyone knows what happened in the DeFi summer. I said in the mutual aid disk that this does not solve the problem of orderly exit. Once the coin price goes down and the Club transaction volume goes down, it will be a triple kill. It does not cause the sunk cost and reinvestment cost that the dividend disk should have.

- Expectation: This is the only temporary improvement. It can only be said that a long-term trap leads to deep affection, and a solid community comes from a deep trap.

Finally, the emergence of PumpFun and the logical framework behind it is a generational disaster for FT.

What FT is currently doing is actually a subset of Pump. Pump solves the problem of no subsequent liquidity after FT assets are flushed to a certain FDV, and opens up the market.

- Low liquidity AMM market - CEX liquidity conversion path. What kills FT in the future will definitely have nothing to do with farcaster, but there must be reasons for pump.

Finally, I hope everyone can secure their profits.

Note 1: PumpFun, a MEME launcher on the Solana chain, launches massive amounts of MEME coins every day.

Note 2: For a detailed introduction to the Three-Disk Theory, please refer to this article: " The Rise of MEME Coin from the Perspective of Ponzi's Three-Disk Theory"