Written by: Miles Deutscher
Compilation: Deep Tide TechFlow
These forecasts are made from early 2023. As the year progresses, the macro and regulatory environment may change, as well as create new narratives (and influence existing ones).
But I thought it would be interesting to try out forecasting anyway.
1. $ETH domination index reaches 23%
It hasn't reached those levels since 2018. I predict that for most of 2023 and into 2024, $ETH will remain relatively strong compared to the market and BTC.
2. Bitcoin hits $30,000 again
We haven't had a true bear market rally other than the pre-merger rally.
I think that's likely to change in 2023. While the uptick may not last, I think a temporary pullback to $30,000 is possible.
3. Bitcoin bottoms out in 2023
There is still a good chance that $BTC will see new lows this year (estimated in the first half of the year). I think 2023 is the bottom of the cycle, based on the current trajectory of rate hikes and a pullback in stocks.
4. The S&P 500 returns to previous levels
I don't think there's too much money in the system to have a full blown crash next year - but given the current macro environment, a pullback to the 3385 level would not be unreasonable.
I'm not a macro expert - just a guess based on my gut.
5. Retail interest reaches cycle lows
Bear markets are boring and I think we're going to see more retail investors exit the market as they lose patience.
We can track interest by analyzing Google Trends, LunarCrush and YouTube/Twitter engagement.
6. ZK-rollups (and zkEVM) perform best
ZK is one of the most exciting innovations in cryptocurrencies and has many products coming soon (zkSync, Hermes, Aztec, etc.).
Of the top performers, I expect ZK to have a significant presence in the top 20 by the end of 2023.
7. L2 continues to grow
I expect the valuation differential between L2s and L1s to narrow as L2s continue to show growth in TVL and deals.
8. Case over for $XRP
During the lengthy litigation process over the past few years, I look forward to the final resolution.
It may end with a settlement. Remember, a victory for XRP is a victory for cryptocurrencies.
9. $SOL will not die
Solana will not go to zero in 2023. Its developer ecosystem and community are too strong for this to happen.
Although there are real concerns about the headwinds of losing the largest investor and market maker (Alameda).
10. $MATIC Continues Dominance in Commercial Exploitation Cryptocurrency Space
Expect more new partnerships for Polygon this year, which should see it hit new highs on the MATIC/BTC chart.
11. Coinbase recovery
As the second largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, with good on-ramp and UI + US regulation, Coinbase will benefit from increased trading activity.
Regardless of whether it is 2023 or 2024, at some point in time, Coinbase should perform relatively well.
