TingHu♪

TingHu♪

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浮生如梦，世事如风。一餐终日饱，一寝至夜安。

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Let's talk about margin calls. My first margin call happened on $EOS when I was trying to profit from a rebound long position in coin-based terms... This was a swap from EOS to OKEx through a $OKB trading pair, and it was one of the biggest failures of my investment career.

Last time, a bunch of people criticized Binance, and the market plummeted... This time, they criticized OKEx, and the market dropped again... However, last time, the October 11th crash was imminent, and many people suffered huge losses trading futures, so the resonance was strong; this time, the incident happened too long ago, and it involved super-large investors + the impact was minimal at the time, so it didn't cause a significant price drop, it was nothing... Now, there's even less impact, so perhaps the market will just make a slight dip this time? A good second test, right?

Many novice investors often get excited when they discover that certain indicators have an exceptionally high accuracy rate, and after using them for a while, they feel they're making steady profits. However, they end up losing a lot of money. Some of the smart ones quickly realize this unsolvable problem. But many others haven't realized that these highly accurate indicators are usually super traps—indicators that make small profits daily but can lead to huge losses in a single instance.

任何习惯于用小规律赚小钱并且上杠杆的人，都必将巨亏于甚至死在一次小规律被打破后的大规律或无规律中。

Was it only contracts that caused trouble in 2018? There was also OTC, buying or selling at a premium, with very little actual trading volume, or even just a smokescreen, opening contract orders first and then releasing these OTC orders or news.

Which of the seasoned investors who've survived to this day isn't treading on eggshells? I am indeed an "old hand," but I just want to live a good life because the chances of a price spike aren't zero. Even if things become more regulated, it's only approaching zero. Just like the negative premium on oil before, who could have predicted that? It could have blown you up, and there was nothing you could do about it.

Therefore, adding to a short position with unrealized profits is a combination of boldness and luck! Why are newcomers so bold? Because they haven't experienced the pitfalls of the past. What if there's another rapid and sharp price drop like that? This time, short big money shorting could end up with huge losses. First, a wave of long positions is wiped out, then a wave of short is wiped out, and the trend remains unchanged, but your money is gone, even if your trend prediction was correct… twitter.com/TingHu888/status/2...

This was the situation back then. The price plummeted to a low of 7500 (a 9% fluctuation), and the preceding few green candle represented the premium-driven rally by "Sister Wuwan." Later, a downward spike (Sister Wuwan's margin call) was followed by a recovery (likely due to short funds from another platform closing out their long positions). After that, it continued downwards to the 60000 level (the "floating line"), then rebounded to the previous resistance level (where Sister Wuwan started her premium-driven rally) before starting downwards again. Later, it officially broke through the floating line and plunged upwards by over 28%.

Important Update: 2026 is more likely to see "survival of the fittest + industry restructuring" than "mass bankruptcy." Mining companies with AI contracts or low costs are likely to thrive, or even expand against the trend; those that haven't transformed, are heavily indebted, or have outdated equipment face real bankruptcy pressure, but the overall situation is unlikely to experience a catastrophic chain reaction like in 2022. The mining industry is shifting from "purely gambling on BTC" to becoming an "infrastructure service provider." Further updates may follow. twitter.com/TingHu888/status/2...

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