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DeFi Teddy
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Cooking @biteyecn @Chaineye_tools AI&Web3 Researcher
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DeFi Teddy
"A Meta Programmer with a $450,000 Annual Salary Became Homeless After Six Months" This isn't a joke; it's a true story unfolding in Silicon Valley. According to AI media outlet [New Zhiyuan]: A senior programmer at Meta, with 12 years of experience and an annual salary of $450,000, became homeless after only six months of unemployment. Here's how things spiraled out of control: • Sudden company layoffs → Zero income • High mortgage payments in Silicon Valley → Cash flow crisis • Mortgage default → Foreclosure • $60,000 emergency room visit → Limited health insurance coverage • Credit cards maxed out → Credit history ruined • Damaged credit → Rejected rental offers • No fixed address → Companies refused interviews • Job search completely disrupted → Homelessness From "elite programmer" to "social outcast," it only took six months. Media reports may be somewhat exaggerated, but the underlying truth is harsh: 1️⃣ The high cost of living in modern society is itself an "invisible death knell." 2️⃣ AI is devouring white-collar jobs, with programmers bearing the brunt. 3️⃣ The wave of unemployment brought about by AI may have only just entered its first phase. So what should ordinary people do? Personally, I believe that becoming a "super individual" is a worthwhile path: ① Build personal influence through social media For example, this guy could easily start an account on X, sharing his 12 years at Meta: Real experience + industry insider information = natural traffic. ② Create a small, high-quality paid product using Vibe Coding No need to pander to employers or wait for offers; Serving only a small group of users can still lead to a good life. What do you think? If it were you, how would you cope with this wave of AI impact?
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DeFi Teddy
12-26
Thread
"7 Crypto Black Swan Events to Watch Out For in 2026" Biteye's editors have put a lot of effort into summarizing institutional predictions for 2026, which basically represent the institutional consensus on the market. However, once a consensus is established, it doesn't help with price predictions because current prices already reflect that consensus. After a conversation with Grok, we summarized the accuracy rate of institutional predictions over the past four years. The average accuracy rate is only 37%, meaning roughly two out of three predictions are wrong. Why is the accuracy rate so low? Because cryptocurrencies are often susceptible to black swan events, once consensus is broken, all judgments are overturned. I've summarized the crypto black swan events we must be wary of in 2026: 1. A breakthrough in quantum computing leads to a collapse in Bitcoin confidence and a price crash. 2. An unexpected interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve causes a significant correction in Bitcoin as a risk asset. 3. The midterm election results lead to a pro-crypto Congress, shifting crypto policy. 4. The failure of the Clarity bill, a US crypto market structure bill, slows institutional adoption of crypto. 5. USDT de-pegging due to reserve issues or a banking crisis triggers a chain reaction, destroying confidence in the stablecoin industry. 6. Large DeFi protocols are attacked, amplifying to RWA, causing systemic risk. 7. AI technology experiences its second revolutionary leap after ChatGPT, gaining full attention from the capital markets, further neglecting Web3. Do you think this is just unnecessary worry? twitter.com/DeFiTeddy2020/stat...
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DeFi Teddy
12-25
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"Some Mind-Bending Thoughts on Prediction Markets" 1. Besides speculation, what is the positive value of prediction markets? The stock market, through market pricing, allows high-value companies to achieve high market capitalization, i.e., "value discovery," thereby optimizing capital allocation. Prediction markets, on the other hand, achieve "truth discovery" through the probability of predictions, bringing society closer to the truth. 2. What is the relationship between prediction and truth? In the stock market, the relationship between price and value is that price fluctuates around value, consistently mirroring it in the long run. In prediction markets, the relationship between prediction and truth is that as time progresses, predictions get closer to the truth, until the moment the truth is revealed, achieving complete consistency. 3. What impact does insider trading have on prediction markets? Here's a strange paradox: on the one hand, insider trading is unfair to other participants; on the other hand, insiders can help prediction markets. For example, before the official announcement of the Nobel Prize, a sudden change in the probability of predictions reveals the winner, acting faster than the media and playing a role in "truth discovery." Prediction market platforms and governments have begun developing rules and policies to regulate insider trading. 4. Why do prediction markets need blockchain? This question is similar to, "Why does finance need blockchain?" The reason is greater openness and transparency, which attracts more participants and makes it easier to build an open ecosystem. For example, insider trading can be monitored and analyzed via on-chain wallets (there are already many such monitoring platforms that can pinpoint suspicious insider trading activities, and anyone can analyze them, greatly enhancing platform trust. Trust is core in finance). 5. The Size and Development Potential of the Prediction Market With the US clearing obstacles to the compliance of prediction markets, the industry is now entering a golden age of rapid development. Currently, the daily trading volume of the polymarket is around $100-200 million, reaching 2% of Binance's spot trading volume. In an era where everything can be traded, trading institutions such as Binance, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Interactive Brokers are all striving to establish themselves in the prediction market, none wanting to overtake others in this new arena. After all, this is a new "trading species." The following article analyzes BNB's strategy in the prediction market, offering some opportunities for retail investors to participate. You can take a look. twitter.com/DeFiTeddy2020/stat...
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DeFi Teddy
12-24
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Is leaving the crypto for AI a truly shrewd move? Recently, I've clearly noticed a trend: More and more of my friends are clearing out their Web3 stocks and going all in on AI. I don't completely agree; let me briefly state my opinion. Conclusion first: It's not about taking sides, but about finding a balance. 1️⃣ Crypto& AI: Not an either/or choice AI and Web3 are not in conflict; on the contrary, they are converging. While learning Vibe Coding and leading a team in AI entrepreneurship, I also continued to research new Web3 opportunities. What is truly underestimated is: AI × Crypto: an "enlightenment-level track". Agents, on-chain data, decentralized computing power, AI payments, stablecoins... Giving up now might mean missing out on the early stages. 2️⃣ Is the crypto really finished? History has already given the answer: "The crypto is dead." This "boy who cried wolf" cry has appeared countless times, for example... Following the ICO crash in 2018 and subsequent global regulation, many people left the market, believing the industry was dead. But 2020 saw the DeFi Summer. Wall Street and regulators are starting to truly embrace crypto. Although BTC is currently under pressure, the trend of traditional finance being revolutionized by blockchain is irreversible. Nasdaq is pushing forward with stock tokenization. SWIFT explores blockchain solutions. Stablecoin cross-border payments already account for approximately 15%. 3️⃣ AI is a must-learn, but don't mythologize that not learning AI will lead to being left behind. But AI itself is not a money-printing machine; it is merely a tool. AI has lowered the barriers to entrepreneurship. This also raises the bar for success. Just like the mass entrepreneurship movement in 2015: Super individuals will definitely emerge. But the vast majority of people are simply more efficient wage earners or small business owners. The reality is harsh, and we must recognize that AI will accelerate the gap between rich and poor because the biggest beneficiaries are centralized companies. 4️⃣ AI stocks are worth paying attention to. DeepSeek data: Nvidia's stock price increased 200-300 times in 10 years. The only comparable benchmarks are Bitcoin at 300x and Ethereum at 1200x. A domestic example is the previously popular Moore's Threads, where early investor Peixian Qianyao achieved a legendary investment return of 6,000 times and 12 billion yuan. However, such opportunities are inaccessible to ordinary retail investors. Early investment opportunities that are more accessible to the average person are still in the Web3 space. Summarize: In 2026, I will continue to study Web3 + AI, while researching AI stocks, with a focus on the cross-opportunities of AI × Crypto. It's not about escaping the crypto, but about upgrading our understanding. What do you all think?
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