Will there be another Altcoin Season?
CRCL just shot up to 300, with trading volume breaking 10 billion. Unfortunately, I realized it a bit late—but better late than never. I’d rather get bagged than miss the ride; not getting in feels worse than heartbreak—even if the “bride price” is buying CRCL at 250, I’ll take it.
Looking at the crypto space, it’s dead cold. The reasons are complex and deep, but here’s the TL;DR:
1. VCs got rekt (or did the rekt-ing) and they’re not coming back
VCs either set up high-valuation schemes or got in on projects like Move, BearChain, EigenLayer, etc. From the comments, it’s obvious which ones were setups and which were idealistic bets.
Those who schemed knew exactly who and how they’d dump on. After cashing out, they left and won’t return—these are actually the clearest minds, knowing that apart from BTC, 99% of the space is trash.
The idealist VCs thought BTC would moon to $100k or $250k, and protocols like EigenLayer would take off alongside ETH breaking $10k or $20k, making those multi-billion valuations seem cheap. But before any tokens could unlock, the market was already frozen.
These VCs are gone too, since their LPs are down 60-90%. The funds are either dissolving or barely hanging on. Most Tier-1 crypto funds are basically gone; the only staff left are “elderly holdouts” waiting for unlaunched tokens.
If you interviewed these VCs and asked for one sentence, it’d be: “I’m an idiot. Should’ve just bought BTC.”
2. Innovation is dead in crypto
Every past bull run had true innovation: ICOs, DeFi, NFTs—something stuck around each time. This cycle? The only “innovation” is inscriptions, which everyone now realizes isn’t real innovation, so nothing will last.
Is there any innovation left? Inside crypto, almost none. The odds of a true breakthrough have dropped from 50% to 10%. Outside crypto though, innovation is booming.
3. Real innovation is happening outside crypto
Is CRCL innovative? Absolutely. It’s aiming to disrupt Visa’s $600B market cap and take over cross-border payments, being 100x more efficient and cheaper. Sure, CRCL at 250 is way pricier than at 60, but if you believe it’ll hit 3,000, and aren’t scared of bagholding from 60, why not?
RWA is innovative too, but probably useless—just another excuse to launch tokens and dump on retail.
Is compliance “innovation”? Strictly, no, but it’s the bridge for crypto to go mainstream.
Some predictions:
Compliance is the big trend. The future of crypto depends on compliance. Non-compliant exchanges, apps, and even USDT will be increasingly squeezed.
With compliance, the biggest crypto projects may not even launch tokens, but rather IPO on US stock markets—where the real money is.
BTC’s value and consensus were once boosted by altcoin innovation and hype. That era’s over. The game is changing.
BTC’s future adoption won’t come from Web3 “breaking the circle” (a false narrative), or from the same old pump-and-dump games. Instead, it’ll come from Web2 integration. In the future, people will pay on Amazon or Pinduoduo with compliant USDC, no need for a special card—just an in-app wallet supporting BTC and USDC.
BTC payments probably won’t use Lightning Network (that stuff’s trash), but more like a Coinbase or official USDC wallet, or a cbBTC on Base chain, managed by Coinbase. Users swap BTC for cbBTC for easy spending—secure custody, just like ETFs.
Sure, some rich guys will complain about not holding their own keys, but their opinion doesn’t matter. Hundreds of billions in ETFs is what counts.
***
With all this, here’s my big-picture take: “Go where the fish are.”
For trading/investing, you gotta think along these lines. Here are my key questions before aping in:
1. Will outsiders (non-crypto money) care about this?
2. Is it easy to pump/trade?
3. Is there big upside potential?
Right now, outside money is focusing on stablecoins and compliance. That’s the narrative to watch.
Not many good plays here—if CRCL drops to 60, everyone will ape in, so it probably won’t dump that far. If you’re not into predictions, just ignore it until it dips, nothing pumps forever. If you’ve got FOMO, buy a starter bag and DCA down to 60 if it dumps.
I’ve also spent a lot of time researching HashKey’s HSK token. FDV is just over $400M, but their burn rate is already higher than that. HSK is both an exchange token and the HashKey chain’s gas—think Coinbase + Base.
With the compliance narrative and the stablecoin/OTC hype (their OTC biz probably keeps them alive), once HSK lists on a top-tier exchange like OKX, it’ll have enough depth for a proper speculation wave.
Downside: their business ops suck, and internal politics are a mess. They need someone who’s already made it in crypto, understands the game, is idealistic, and will work for future profit, not salary. But for short-term trading, don’t waste time “fixing the business.”
From a “national pride” POV, I’d love to see an Eastern Coinbase emerge. Coinbase is worth $100B, HashKey FDV is $400M; OSL, which is similar, is listed in HK at $7B but does only 1/10th of HashKey’s volume.
CRCL is an investment; HSK is a trade. US stocks are for investing, HSK is for trading.
HSK’s deepest market is on Gate, but still not enough. It’s just like ORDI was during the inscription craze—only on Gate at first, then Binance listing brought real liquidity.
No Gate account? Use this: gate.com/share/ulgqbfk
***
For memes, I don’t touch conspiracy coins or whatever—no point, just insider games.
Following stock market logic, only memes that appeal to outsiders have a future.
Right now, only one: Labubu. Glad to see it still holding strong—if it crashes, it’s over.
A lot of people don’t realize how huge Labubu is unless they study Pop Mart. Chanel, LV, etc. are all seeing declining sales, while Labubu is blowing up in high-end circles, with stores next to luxury brands.
Labubu is Pop Mart’s flagship, with a movie coming soon. Pop Mart isn’t about launching endless new IPs—they want to build a 100-year IP.
Labubu is bigger overseas than in China now, with TikTok unboxing videos going viral—way hotter than PEPE.
People who don’t get memes ask, “What’s this got to do with shitcoins?” Well, if you get PEPE, you’ll get Labubu. Both mooned overseas first, then China followed. PEPE is just a meme—same with Labubu.
The only meme outsiders really care about now is Labubu. This kind of hype isn’t something Elon can generate with a single tweet.
If you’re betting on memes, bet on the ones with longevity and high ceiling.
Current holdings: BTC, Hype, HSK, Labubu (DYOR, I’m biased).
Stocks: PDD, UNH, Coinbase, Tencent, and just added a small CRCL speculation bag.
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