Where is the US stock market currently positioned? Referring to the US stock market leverage indicator, the US stock market has reached a state of leveraged bubble. Starting in June 2025, the indicator broke through one standard deviation, entering a leveraged bubble state. Currently, it is close to the state of July 2007, still some distance from March 2000, and significantly higher than previous mid-term peaks since 2009. After entering the leveraged bubble stage, the market trend is mainly influenced by liquidity rather than fundamentals.
Once deleveraging begins in the market, the indicator will turn downwards, and the overall market will enter a medium- to long-term downward trend. Moreover, the higher the indicator's high point, the lower the corresponding low point after deleveraging will be. From this perspective, once this downward trend begins, the cumulative market correction is likely to be larger than the correction from November 2021 to December 2022.
$QQQ $NVDA $TSLA
