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看不懂的sol
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一生只搞一个币 $SOL 没有收费群，切勿相信。 币安广场创作者！蓝鸟会成员！ 陪兄弟们一起穿越牛熊，通过逃顶和抄底赚更多的币。 #OKX web3入口 一个就够 https://t.co/KejoV0foz5
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看不懂的sol
6.90! Breaking news! Today, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar reached 6.9, setting a new recent high. At the end of November last year, the offshore RMB exchange rate was approximately 7.12 yuan to 1 US dollar, appreciating by more than 2,100 basis points in three months. When Trump announced the "reciprocal tariffs" in April 2025, the exchange rate was approximately 7.428 yuan to 1 US dollar. Due to interest rate changes, we are currently experiencing a 3% unrealized loss. Will our losses continue to shrink? If you exchanged your currency for US dollars last April and deposited it as a fixed deposit in a Hong Kong bank, you could have earned a 4% annual interest rate. Due to interest rate changes, you're currently down 3%, and the same applies to my U-shares. I've personally lost the equivalent of two Mercedes-Benz G-Class cars, while the Shanghai Composite Index has risen 35% during this period. Therefore, many investors who exchanged their money for US dollars are now kicking themselves. Some people converted their US dollars back into RMB early on and entered the stock/ crypto. Many people find this round of currency appreciation unbelievable: with the economy feeling so weak, shouldn't it be depreciating? Why is it going against the grain? The main reason is that after the pandemic, developed countries in Europe and the United States generally engaged in massive spending, resulting in severe inflation. The US CPI reached a staggering 9.1% in June 2022. The Federal Reserve subsequently raised interest rates rapidly, but has not been able to completely contain inflation. Starting in September 2024, the United States began a cycle of interest rate cuts, with inflation exceeding 3%. Anyone who has visited the United States in the past two years has noticed a significant difference in prices compared to the end of 2019. Prices, including those for human services, are outrageously expensive. During this period, we experienced deflation, and prices in the two countries diverged in a K-shaped pattern. However, Chinese manufacturing has made a remarkable transformation in recent years, becoming more competitive. If there were no major changes unseen in a century, and Sino-US relations returned to what they were before 2013 or 2012, the exchange rate would be 5 yuan or 4.5 yuan to 1 US dollar. Of course, if the two countries engage in fierce competition, it is possible that 8 yuan or 8.5 yuan could be exchanged for 1 US dollar. The situation that followed was basically the same: a fierce tariff war broke out in April, and an agreement was reached at the end of October, taking only six months. However, this agreement suspends the imposition of tariffs on each other for one year, expiring in November 2026. So there are still some uncertainties this year. Trump is highly likely to visit in April, and may return the visit before the end of the year, suggesting that G2 relations have entered a period of stability. If this is the case, the continuous and slow appreciation of the RMB will likely continue for some time, and it is not impossible for it to reach 6.5 RMB in two to three years. The logic behind the appreciation is mainly: 1. China's economic transformation and upgrading are progressing smoothly, and its competitiveness is continuously increasing; 2. The exchange rate was previously undervalued; 3. The Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates, narrowing the interest rate differential between China and the United States; 4. Hot money continues to flow into China's capital market; 5. A slight appreciation is beneficial for combating involution and balancing relations with trading partners. Of course, if you are a long-term investor, you don't need to worry about exchange rates; time will tell.
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Want to join the top 20% of the wealthy? Charlie Munger teaches us: Bet less, bet big!! Charlie Munger once said, "The iron law of life is that only 20% of people achieve what the other 80% do." This statement hits the nail on the head for most people—everyone wants to be among the top 20%, but they always drift along with the crowd. In fact, Munger had already hidden the secret to becoming a winner in the betting system of horse racing. He said that the stock market and horse racing are essentially the same thing. Everyone bets, and the odds fluctuate with the bets. Good horses have a high winning probability but low odds; bad horses have a low winning probability but temptingly high odds. Even worse, the horse racing club takes a 17% management fee. You not only need to be smarter than other bettors, you need to be significantly smarter to make money. But some people do actually win. Munger's childhood gambling buddies made a fortune betting on light carriages and horse racing. This man rarely bet, focusing only on mispriced bets—opportunities with underestimated odds but high payouts. Once he saw a winning opportunity, he would strike hard. This is the core difference between winners and ordinary people: ordinary people are busy betting frequently, while winners wait for the best opportunity. Those who always want "more work, more gain" are, in Munger's eyes, "crazy." He said, "They don't wait for the perfect opportunity to go all out; they believe that by working harder or hiring more business school students, they can be invincible in the business world." Effort is not wrong, but blind effort will only make you sink deeper into the 80% of the mire. True winners don't rely on brute force, but follow Munger's truth: "The way to become a winner is to work, work, work, and work again, and expect to spot a few good opportunities." This "work" is not aimless busywork, but day-to-day accumulation, research, and refinement. It takes time to understand industry logic, it requires dedicated study of company value, and it demands patience to wait for opportunities. Without this deep cultivation, even if an opportunity is right in front of you, you won't be able to seize it. To break into the top 20% of winners, Munger believes it boils down to two things: First, put in the hard work and develop a keen eye for identifying hidden gems. We aren't born with the ability to see through everything at all times; the market is efficient most of the time. You must rely on "work, work, work, and more work" to find those undervalued "mispriced bets" amidst a sea of information. Second, bet less, but bet heavily when you're sure. Munger said, "Smart people bet heavily when they find such opportunities. They bet heavily when they encounter good opportunities, and remain inactive at other times." The market isn't perfectly efficient; there will always be opportunities to find bargains. But these opportunities are only for those who can endure loneliness, stay true to themselves, and are willing to put in the relentless effort. In Munger's view, patience is more important than hard work, and vision is more valuable than diligence. Behind vision lies day-to-day, dedicated cultivation. May you be able to bury yourself in your work while also looking up to seize opportunities, ultimately becoming one of the 20% who succeed. The above is a summary of reading Chapter 4 of *Poor Charlie's Almanack*, shared for mutual encouragement. ———————— Day 405 of Rejecting Noise and Focusing on Dollar-Cost Averaging Currently holding 50 ETH, cost $2373.67 Currently holding 5.51 BTC, cost $86167 Currently holding 1817.32 SOL, cost $157.3 Currently holding 7250 LINK, cost $14.8 Today's actions: Continued mindless buying of 0.04 BTC, 5 SOL, and 50 LINK Current overall account profit: -12.24% twitter.com/DtDt666/status/202...
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To hold a company long-term, it must meet four criteria! Munger never chooses a company based on "feelings," nor does he chase stories or hot topics. Instead, he relies on a set of extremely stable "four elements." These four simple elements have almost determined all of Buffett and Munger's major wins and risk avoidance over the past 50 years. ① Simple and Easy-to-Understand Business: Munger particularly dislikes business models that "sound smart but are inherently complex." His logic is simple: Whether a company can maintain stable profitability can be roughly seen at first glance. If you need 20 pages of PowerPoint to explain its business, then that company is likely unstable in the future. ② Long-Term Competitive Advantage: Munger focuses not on how much money a company makes now, but on whether it has a "moat." For example: Brand (Coca-Cola), Cost Advantage (BYD), Network Effect (Apple ecosystem), Scale Barrier (Berkshire Hathaway's insurance business). The core question is: Why will it still be alive in 5-10 years? Why will it still be profitable? ③ A trustworthy and rational management team: Munger repeatedly emphasized: "Bad people can ruin a good business; good people can sometimes do an ordinary business well." He would rather invest in ordinary businesses than entrust his money to greedy, blind, and arrogant management. The simplest way to judge management is: Are they honest? Are they willing to admit mistakes? Are they focused on long-term or short-term data? The answers to these questions are often more important than any financial report. ④ A reasonable price is simple but often misunderstood—Munger has never been a "bargain hunter." A "reasonable price" means: not an excessively high bubble price, nor a gambling-style low price, but a range that allows long-term value to be reflected and gives you peace of mind. You buy a company to own it, not for short-term fluctuations. These standards seem to belong to investing, but they also apply to life: Choosing partners, choosing a career path, choosing projects… You can re-select based on these four criteria. In a sense, Munger's "four elements" not only helped him pick good companies but also helped him avoid many mistakes and pitfalls in life. —————— Day 404 of Safe Dollar-Cost Averaging (Noise Rejection) Currently holding 50 ETH at a cost of $2373.67 Currently holding 5.47 BTC at a cost of $86284 Currently holding 1812.32 SOL at a cost of $157.5 Currently holding 7200 LINK at a cost of $14.9 Today's actions: Continued to blindly buy 0.04 BTC, 5 SOL, and 50 LINK Current overall account profit: -11.54%
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A friend asked if I could explain Bitcoin in a simple and easy-to-understand way. My model is very simple; even a child could understand it. It can help someone quickly grasp what Bitcoin is in 10 minutes. On a secluded island, 100 people live, each with their own job. Everyone produces their own food, which they exchange when needed. These 100 people find exchanging food too cumbersome, so they invent bookkeeping. This bookkeeping is only known to two people; for example, I owe you 2 chickens, and you owe me 10 fish. Later, someone found individual bookkeeping too tedious, so they invented using an item to represent food, such as a special stone representing the price of one chicken. This special stone cannot be counterfeited. This is the earliest form of currency. As exchanges become more frequent, someone suddenly realizes that currency is unnecessary. An institution can be established specifically for trading goods and recording transaction data. A dedicated person keeps the books, and others supervise the process. This is the earliest form of bank. Now the problem arises: someone secretly alters the data (this is inflation), which is disastrous. Here's the key point: Later, someone invented another method of bookkeeping: instead of assigning a dedicated person to keep records, each of the 100 people on the island has their own ledger. Every time two people make a transaction, the other 98 people on the island are called over to witness the transaction, and each person records the transaction in their ledger. This way, everyone on the island has an identical ledger, recording each transaction. If someone's ledger is lost or missing a record, the ledger with the most people's records becomes the official one. This is distributed ledger technology. If you want to forge data, you would need to call over 50 people on the island to modify the data, which is a 51% attack. Now there are two problems: 1. Calling over 98 people for every transaction is too cumbersome. 2. Why should I have to go and record every transaction? The first problem was impossible in the agricultural era. Later, someone invented the internet, and people didn't need to go to the island; they could download an app and record transactions online together. The second problem is that each transaction might earn a corresponding transaction fee reward, paid by the transacting participants—this is cryptocurrency mining. This is the simplest Bitcoin model. (Of course, this does not include models of deeper financial support and monetary systems.)
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Many people are asking if now is a good time to dollar-cost averaging (DCA) in Bitcoin? Is it a good time to buy the dips? Today's BTC Rainbow Chart model indicator analysis: BTC Rainbow Chart Update: The indicator has reached the first stage (massive sell-off). The current reference for buy the dips is the first stage, which is in the comfortable zone for BTC dollar-cost averaging. Historical accuracy: Looking back, the model has been accurate in several past bear markets. During the 2020 bear market, the fixed-investment period lasted 43 days. The 2022 bear market saw a fixed-investment period lasting 530 days. As of now in 2026, with the fixed investment cycle lasting 10 days, we are currently at a suitable point for fixed investment buy the dips. For those who are still relatively well-off, this is a good time to start. However, I would like to remain cautious about bottom-fishing. As I mentioned before, 2026 is destined to be a volatile market. The best time to plant a tree was ten years ago; the second best time is now. Many regrets in life are not because we started too late, but because we kept waiting for a "more suitable" time. But the reality is: there is never a moment so perfect that you can act without hesitation. What truly changes your life is never being "ready," but finally making up your mind to start now.
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