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看不懂的sol
Munger: How to Grow a Small Amount of Capital A blurry video, seemingly shot with an iPhone 4, is circulating online. The video shows the elderly Charlie Munger. Someone asked him: "How do you achieve a 50% annualized return with only a small amount of money?" Munger didn't give a formula or list any steps. He told the story of someone he had never met—his great-grandfather. This old man came to Iowa with nothing, participated in the Black Hawk Down war, endured unimaginable hardships, and eventually became the richest man in his small town, owning a bank, a mansion, iron fences, and a wide lawn. Munger's great-grandfather said something to his family in his later years that Munger remembered to this day: "A person only has a few real opportunities in their lifetime." This sentence was everything Munger wanted to say that day. I. Find Opportunities Where No One Is Watching Let's imagine a scenario. In a market, a stall sells items priced significantly lower than expected, attracting a large crowd of people eager to buy. In another alley, there's an inconspicuous stall offering the same things for a lower price, but almost no one notices it. Why doesn't anyone go there? Because that alley is too remote; people are too lazy to walk there. That's how the investment market works. Warren Buffett once said that when he was managing a small sum of money, he would sift through thousands of pages of financial statements, occasionally finding one or two companies that were ridiculously cheap, obviously cheap. But as his money grew, those opportunities disappeared for him—not that the opportunities disappeared, but that he became too big to enter that alley. Munger's first core point is: the biggest advantage of small capital is precisely its "smallness." Berkshire Hathaway now has a market capitalization of nearly $1.02 trillion, making it one of the world's largest non-tech U.S. companies. It sounds impressive, but Munger and Buffett have long said that size is the biggest obstacle to their investment returns. Because they can only look at big opportunities, and the pricing of big opportunities is always being watched by countless eyes. Companies with a market capitalization of over 1 billion might be followed by dozens of analysts, and every piece of news is quickly reflected in the stock price. But a small company with a market capitalization of 50 million might not be seriously studied by any professional institution at all. This is where pricing fails. This is the "small stall in the alley." Many institutional investors are constrained by regulations and are simply not allowed to buy stocks with a market capitalization below a certain threshold—for example, companies with a market capitalization below 5 billion are simply not on their radar. Those overlooked areas are not because they lack value, but because they are too small for anyone to bother picking up. For ordinary people like us, this is actually a real window. II. Be patient, and when you get it, be ruthless. Munger told the story of baseball hitter Ted Williams, a story worth telling. Williams is one of the greatest hitters in American baseball history. He wrote a book called *The Science of Hitting*. In the book, there's a diagram that divides the hitting area into 77 small squares and then marks his batting average when he swung from each position. The sweetest area has a batting average of 40%. The very edge of the market only accounts for 23%. Williams concluded: I only hit the balls in my sweet spot. Even if it means striking out, I won't hit the low-probability balls. Munger, upon reading this, exclaimed in admiration—isn't this the essence of investing? Thousands of "balls" fly into the market every day, but most are not in your sweet spot. You can stand there, do nothing, and watch the balls fly by. Only when a ball lands precisely in your sweet spot do you swing with all your might. Munger's second core point is: the most important action in investing is often not striking, but waiting. This contradicts our intuition. We always feel that "doing something" is progress, and being idle is a waste of time. But in investing, inaction is sometimes the most difficult, and also the most correct, action. Munger himself said that good opportunities may only appear once every few months, or even once every few years. But precisely because it's rare, when it finally arrives— "You must go all in, go as far as you can." Not "buy a little to test the waters," but a truly heavy investment. Here's an interesting psychological phenomenon: after waiting a long time, people often become anxious, wondering, "Did I make a mistake?" or "Did I miss something?" and then they look for "good enough" opportunities to comfort themselves. And this, precisely, destroys the entire meaning of waiting. The value of waiting only becomes apparent the moment you actually act. III. Don't Put Your Eggs in a Hundred Baskets "Don't put all your eggs in one basket"—almost everyone has heard this saying. But Munger insists on the opposite. Munger's family's assets are concentrated in only three things: Berkshire Hathaway stock, Costco stock, and a fund managed by an investor named Li Lu. Just these three. Munger's third core point is: diversification is a compensation for "not knowing what you're buying." If you truly understand, you don't need so much diversification. He told the story of a friend named John Ariaga, a billionaire who made his fortune in real estate. You might assume such a person would spread their money across the country, investing in various types of real estate. Quite the opposite. Ariaga's entire real estate investment was concentrated in one place: within a one-mile radius of the Stanford University campus. Just that one mile. For forty years, he did only one thing: avoid excessive debt, buy when the market was in a panic, and sell when the market was in a frenzy. He must have been advised countless times to invest elsewhere, in other cities, in other types of real estate. He didn't go. He stayed within that one mile, studying every building, every street, and every tenant's preferences to a depth that others could never match. This was his moat—not capital, but the density of his knowledge. When your understanding of something is deeper than everyone else's, you naturally possess a pricing advantage. The logic of diversification is essentially diluting profound knowledge into many superficial understandings. Munger said, "If I had followed traditional financial theory to invest, I would be much poorer." Finally, returning to the old man's story, Munger wasn't talking about wealth, but about an attitude towards opportunity. The old man came to Iowa, where the black soil was cheap but fertile. Whenever there was panic or crisis, when others were fleeing, he bought several farms and rented them to hardworking German immigrants. He didn't do much, just a few times. But those few times were enough. "A person only has a few real opportunities in their lifetime." When Munger said this, there was no pessimism in his tone, but rather a sense of relief. It wasn't "Only a few, it's a pity," but rather "Only a few, so don't waste your energy; wait until it comes and bet on it." We always live in an illusion, thinking that opportunities come out of nowhere, that they'll appear every now and then, and that if we miss this one, there will be another. So we're always careless, always "let's try it first," always holding back half our strength. But those who truly turn small amounts of money into large sums often do so not because they find numerous opportunities, but because they patiently wait, and then, on those one or two opportunities, unhesitatingly bet their entire understanding and conviction. This isn't gambling; it's accumulation. Accumulating deep understanding of a small market, accumulating the ability to wait patiently without anxiety, and accumulating the courage to take the plunge when the opportunity truly arrives. It sounds simple, but every step goes against human nature. Perhaps this is why only a minority can truly achieve this. twitter.com/DtDt666/status/205...
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看不懂的sol
Strategy! AI-related stocks account for 40% of the market capitalization of US stocks. What is history telling us? According to Bank of America data, AI-related stocks now account for nearly 40% of the S&P 500. This ratio has occurred three times in history. The "Nifty Fifty" bubble of 1972, in which the top 50 stocks accounted for about 40%, was followed by a phased decline of about 50% in the U.S. stock index. The 1990 Japanese stock market bubble accounted for approximately 44%, after which the Nikkei fell by 63% within two years. The dot-com bubble of 2000 accounted for about 41%, and the Nasdaq subsequently experienced its largest drawdown of 78%. All three instances were characterized by high concentration, high valuation, and high volatility. The market underwent a prolonged period of adjustment after each of the three instances. The AI ​​sector currently accounts for nearly 40% of the total weighting, has a high valuation, and is quite volatile. It's not that AI has no future, but that the current structure has never allowed anyone to comfortably enter and exit. What should we do then? My suggestion is super simple: two paths: First, maintain a regular investment plan. Regardless of whether it's a high or low point, buying a small amount every week or month will eventually reduce the cost over time. Even if there is a pullback later, people who use dollar-cost All In have a much better mental tolerance than those who go all in at once, while ensuring that they don't miss the pump on potential gains. Secondly, hold cash on hand and wait for an opportunity. Not buying now isn't because I'm bearish; it's because I'm waiting for a more comfortable price. The market is never short of opportunities; what's lacking is having money in hand when those opportunities come. Warren Buffett has nearly $400 billion in his hands and he's not panicking, so why should we be? History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme. Keep investing regularly, hold cash on hand, and wait for the right opportunity. twitter.com/DtDt666/status/205...
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看不懂的sol
Looking back in 2029, this article will be a watershed moment for countless people's destinies. I rarely use such a grand title when writing, but today I want to make an exception. It's not to grab attention, but because I believe you are standing at a crossroads that you may not even be aware of. Have you ever had this feeling: one day you find a diary from a few years ago and suddenly realize that at some inconspicuous moment, your life has quietly taken a turn? Psychology calls this a hidden bifurcation point—those moments that were almost imperceptible at the time, but changed everything in retrospect. The problem is, we rarely recognize it at the crossroads. I'm writing this article because I vaguely feel that 2026 is such a time point. Technology is accelerating, information is exploding, and social stratification is quietly intensifying. It's not income stratification, but something more fundamental: cognitive stratification. Today, I want to share six cognitive differences I've observed. One: People anxious about being eliminated versus those focused on growth. One type of person asks every day: Will AI replace me? Anxiety-driven learning is inherently defensive; you're learning what others say is important, not what you truly need. Another type of person asks: "What have I truly understood this month?" They're not concerned with whether they've been eliminated, but whether they're progressing. Growth psychologist Bandura's research found that a person's belief in their ability to grow is a better predictor of long-term achievement than their belief in their intelligence. This perception of growth itself is a driving force. Cognitive Difference Two: People who see effort as consumption versus those who see effort as accumulation. I know a friend who works incredibly hard, from morning till night, but one day he said: "I feel like I'm stuck in the same place. The harder I try, the more empty I feel." This is effort as consumption—energy is spent, the task is completed, but you haven't changed as a person. In contrast, effort as accumulation—every investment leaves something behind. A 2022 Stanford University study compared two types of employees: One type of habit is to complete tasks quickly. One type of habit is to deliberately extract learning points from tasks. After three years, the latter's promotion speed is almost twice that of the former. Treating effort as consumption will make people tired; treating effort as accumulation will make people strong. Cognitive gap three: People who rely on information increments and people who pursue depth of understanding. Have you ever had this experience: one day you open your phone and browse for an hour, read dozens of messages, and feel like you have learned a lot, but when you close your phone, nothing is retained. This is the most hidden trap of the information age: the feeling of information intake is very easy for the brain to misjudge as learning. I call this state "information false fullness". You think you have eaten a lot, but it is all 0 calories. Real learning feels completely different. It usually has a little resistance, a little effort, and that feeling of "I think I understand, but I haven't fully digested it". Psychology calls this "desirable difficulty". Research has found that moderate difficulty in learning will actually make memory and understanding deeper. It is not about knowing more, but about understanding more deeply. This is the real barrier of cognition. Cognitive gap four: People who only optimize work efficiency and people who simultaneously optimize the quality of topic selection. Our generation has been exposed to too much efficient and focused time management. The training is all correct, but a crucial premise is often overlooked: what are you efficiently doing? There's a principle in management called effectiveness precedes efficiency. Efficiency is doing things right; effectiveness is doing the right things. A person walking slowly in the right direction is much closer to their destination than someone running wildly in the wrong direction. Instead of learning how to do things faster, it's better to first figure out what's worth doing. Choosing a topic is scarcer than execution, and judgment is harder than execution. Cognitive Difference Five: People who aim for stability versus those who aim for resilience. I've seen many people exhaust most of their energy to maintain a stable state. This stability may seem safe at first glance, but it has a huge hidden danger: when the environment truly changes, it will shatter completely. Because stability is a rigid system; it resists disturbance but cannot adapt to new situations. Resilience, on the other hand, is an elastic system: it doesn't aim to be undisturbed, but rather to recover or even become stronger after being disturbed. In engineering, this is called antifragility. What we should pursue is not undisturbed stability, but the ability to find our way again after being disturbed. This is the real difference in perception of security: the sixth difference between people who deposit money in banks and those who convert money into hard assets. Most people treat money the same way they treat time: save it, leave it, and feel safe. But is money in the bank really safe? Over the past 200 years, the purchasing power of cash in the United States has shrunk by 95%. Over the past 20 years, China's M2 has increased more than tenfold. The over-issuance of fiat currency is a long-term trend. This is not a conspiracy theory, but a basic law of monetary history. Depositing money in the bank, nominally without losing money, actually results in inflation eating away a dollar every year. Over ten years, half of the money will be gone without anyone noticing. Another group of people convert their money into hard assets—BTC, gold, Nasdaq, S&P 500. These assets share the following characteristics: limited supply, long-term pursuit of global funds, and the ability to outpace inflation. Fiat currency can be printed indefinitely, but these assets cannot. This is not speculation, but betting on a certain trend: long-term depreciation of fiat currency and long-term appreciation of scarce assets. How to do it? Maintain a consistent monthly investment plan, buying a fixed amount each month regardless of market highs or lows. Time will average out your costs. Don't try to time the market or buy at the buy the dips. All you need to do is hold firm in an era of excessive fiat currency issuance; not investing is the biggest risk. ------- These six cognitive differences are not something I can say is right or wrong; they are more like two different paths: The path gets narrower and narrower as you walk on it. Another path that opens up more and more is that you don't need to figure out all six at once. Change in cognition is never an epiphany, but a gradual process: questioning little by little, correcting little by little. The only thing I want you to do is, before closing this article today, think about whether there is one of these six dimensions that you feel is talking about you. If so, you might as well write it down and post it where you can see it. It's not to urge yourself to change, but to give it more attention. Where attention goes, growth will follow. I don't know where you will be in 2027 or what kind of life you will be living, but I believe that the way a person thinks about problems today will silently and slowly shape that future. Take care. twitter.com/DtDt666/status/205...
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