#刘教链
2024-09-19
9.18教链内參考: 看钟近丰丰
🔗aiyanxishe.feishu.cn/wiki/Ofax...…
Note: Today's content is more than 3,500 words, the main contents are:
Macro situation,
Federal Reserve interest rate announcement is imminent, 100,000 dollars by the end of the year,
BlackRock BTC report, selling pressure may be reduced,
USDT supply, USDC enters the South American market,
web3 game disillusionment, mining companies transform to hoard B,
Trump praises NFT,
BTC natural gas driving force,
ETH/BTC may fall into the 0.02-0.03 range, etc.
/1. Wednesday, tense moment. The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will end today, and the whole world is watching the interest rate decision after the meeting. For the East Eight District, the earliest news should be 2 o'clock tomorrow morning.
The market is fiercely competitive, and it is difficult to tell the winner. BTC basically fluctuates around 60,000 dollars a day, waiting for the moment of change. USDT7.08, remaining flat with USD/CNH 7.086.
The dollar index fell below 101, temporarily at 100.8. Gold approached $2600, temporarily at $2580.
Traders prepared for key policy decisions at the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, which is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in four years. The market remains divided on the extent of the rate cut, with the probability of a rate cut of more than 50 basis points currently at 65%, a significant increase from 25% a month ago. Meanwhile, the dollar rose on Tuesday, with unexpectedly high retail sales data indicating that consumer spending remains relatively strong. US retail sales unexpectedly rose slightly by 0.1% in August from a month ago, contrary to expectations of a 0.2% decline, and the revised 1.1% increase in July showed relatively strong consumer spending.
Elsewhere, the Bank of England is expected to keep UK interest rates unchanged on Thursday, while the Bank of Japan may maintain interest rates on Friday but signal that it is ready to raise interest rates. The dollar fell across the board, with selling activity most pronounced against the yen, New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar.
/2. (QCP Capital) Volatility will increase after the Fed announces its interest rate decision.
Traders will readjust their positions in the coming weeks. The results of the US election may also herald the beginning of a strong macro trend.
Passengers, please hold on tight. I remember someone used to like to say something like "the bigger the wind and waves, the more expensive the fish."
I don't know what this means, but it seems to be somewhat appropriate to describe this moment of change.
/3. (Jinshi) Wharton School professor Jeremy Siegel said that the Fed should consider a larger interest rate cut, otherwise it will face the risk of economic recession.
But some people also said that many Wall Street institutions (including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Barclays and Citigroup) still expect to cut interest rates by 25bp first to send a so-called "soft landing" signal.
For Fed Chairman Powell, it seems that a direct 50bp cut is the best option, which can minimize the risk of insufficient interest rate cuts.
Friends who often read Jiaolian articles should remember that when we review the past few collapses of the US stock market, we cannot say that the collapse was caused by the interest rate cuts, but rather that the Fed reacted too slowly and cut too slowly.
The speed of the leverage chain collapse is the speed of an avalanche. Just look at how quickly LUNA/UST died that year to know the power of this horror. If the critical point is really triggered, the Fed will not be able to slowly cut interest rates by 25bp and 25bp every one or a few months.
If the Fed can learn a little from history, it should decisively choose to cut 50bp directly this time.
/4. (Jinshi) Anthony Scaramucci, founder of Skybridge Capital, said that the Fed may cut interest rates by 50 basis points tonight. Driven by a series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and clearer regulation of US cryptocurrencies, BTC will hit a record high of $100,000 by the end of the year.
Reference data: Old Power Law Price Corridor, 2025.1.4, upper track $379,000, middle track $100,000, lower track $35,600.
/5. (BlackRock) BlackRock's official website released a report titled "Bitcoin: A Unique Decentralized Asset", pointing out that BTC is clearly a risky asset in isolation due to its high volatility. However, most of the risks and potential return drivers facing BTC are fundamentally different from traditional risky assets, which makes it unsuitable for most traditional financial frameworks - including the risk-on and risk-off frameworks adopted by some macro commentators.
BlackRock believes that the essence of BTC is a scarce, non-sovereign, decentralized global asset. This leads some investors to view it as a safe option to turn to during times of fear and certain geopolitical destructive events. In the long run, BTC's adoption trajectory is driven by strong concerns about global monetary stability, geopolitical stability, U.S. fiscal sustainability, and U.S. political stability. This is contrary to the relationship that is usually attributed to traditional risky assets and such forces.
BTC's long-term performance shows a low correlation with stocks and bonds, which makes it attractive for diversified investment. Although in the short term, BTC's price movements occasionally synchronize with traditional risky assets, these are considered temporary phenomena.
The conclusion reiterates that BTC's unique characteristics may make it a hedge against risks that traditional assets cannot cope with, especially in the face of heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
So Jiaolian said that you still have to look at professional reports and research papers. Don't listen to people on social media who are talking nonsense about BTC and the strong correlation between US stocks all day long.
/6. (theblock) Research shows that the number of BTC charging addresses on centralized trading platforms has dropped to 130,000, the lowest level in several years. This indicator represents the number of addresses that send inflow transactions to trading platforms, which may indicate that selling pressure has eased.
However, when deposits on trading platforms decrease, it may not only indicate that people are less interested in selling BTC. It may also mean that there is less overall demand for BTC, because fewer traders are depositing funds to bet on price increases.
So, demand still needs to be driven. And what can drive demand is naturally a surge.
/7. (tokenterminal) In the past two years, the supply of USDT has almost doubled, from about $65 billion to $118.6 billion.
The market share has also increased from 55% to 75%, which is almost close to a monopoly.
If the market value of the entire crypto market is regarded as the result of the leveraged amplification of stablecoins, then the supply of stablecoins doubles, and the capacity of the entire crypto market should double.
/8. (theblock) Circle's USD stablecoin USDC has entered the Brazilian and Mexican markets. This move allows the Brazilian real and Mexican peso to be directly exchanged for USDC without the need to exchange legal currency B for US dollars. This is the pioneer of the US dollar's penetration into other nation-states.
After all, traditional banks need to set up branches to enter a country, which is easily constrained by local supervision. With the help of blockchain technology, the public is directly connected.
If this continues, these small countries with weak local legal currencies may gradually be squeezed out of the market by the strong US dollar.
/9. (blockbeats) "Black Myth: Wukong" bursts the bubble of web3 games. Pigi, social and gaming director at Taiko, said that a AAA game like "Black Myth: Wukong" only sells for $70, so why should I spend $1,000 (0.4 ETH) to buy something that only has a trailer? And maybe I have to wait three years to join the private test, and maybe I have to own the right NFT.
Time is money, so rewards are a good supplement. But if a code or incentive is the main purpose of playing the game, it will miss the point. So the so-called web3 game can only evolve into a "wolf (capital) in sheep's clothing (game coat)", which is disappointing.
It's sad and lamentable~
/10. (cointelegraph) Canadian BTC mining company Cathedra Bitcoin is stopping its seven-year mining business and adopting a new strategy: buying as much BTC as possible on the open market like MicroStrategy.
In the BTC financial strategy memorandum on September 16, it was disclosed that its new plan will make all capital allocation decisions point to maximizing the company's BTC reserves per share.
Similar to companies like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet, Cathedra will issue stocks, debt options or hybrid securities to buy more Bitcoin. The company may also borrow against some of its balance sheet assets.
Jiaolian feels that time will prove that it is wise.
/11. (Internet) Trump praised NFT. He said: NFT is like beautiful art. It is a new form of asset, so Trump NFT launched four series. It is very interesting to make NFT. It made me realize the value of crypto assets. We sold very well. We did it. The production process opened my eyes.
Sure enough, it is different to make money. He knows how to stand.
/12. (X) JPMorgan analysts believe that BTC mining is the key driver of natural gas consumption growth in the next 10 years.
"From a very high level and fundamental perspective, we see that the demand/participation of BTC will increase in the next 10 years, not decrease"
/13. (coindesk) FxPro senior analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said that the ETH/BTC exchange rate is likely to fall further into the 0.02-0.03 range.
He said: This is surprising considering the overall positive sentiment of investors towards AltB in the months after the BTC halving and the higher beta coefficient of AltB to US stocks, which have performed quite strongly in recent months.
He added: In the long run, the activity of Ethereum developers, both in the blockchain itself and in the expanding ecosystem around it, is the reason for the rise of ETH. However, by the end of 2023, the trend turned to BTC, as the prospects of ETFs became more prominent.
He mentioned: It should be noted that the launch of the Ethereum ETF did not attract similar buying interest as the BTC ETF, but instead led to net outflows, and did not reverse the downward trend of the ETH/BTC exchange rate. ETH is in crisis. If it really falls to 0.02, it will be too sad for those who hold a large position in ETH.
(End)
