On-Chain College

On-Chain College

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- Bitcoin Analyst since 2021 - Crypto Class of 2017 - Analyst @ Bitcoin Live - Data over Emotions - Subscribe to The OCC Newsletter below

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On-Chain College

How Low Will We Go, my latest article, is out now (link below and in bio). Data and analysis, not vibes and predictions.

On-Chain College

Bitcoin Realized Losses last week were comparable to the losses during June of 2022, but it gets more interesting when we dive deeper. Removing Short-Term Holder coins (0-6 months old), we can see that the realized losses from the 6m+ cohort were actually significantly smaller last week than in June 2022. This tells me that the most reactive group of investors (6 months or less) have capitulated but we're still seeing that 6 month - 2 year group holding back to some extent. Translation- don't be surprised by another BTC capitulation, led by the 6 month - 2 year cohort.

On-Chain College

Funding rates on Binance continue to show us that Bitcoin leverage traders are still fearful of price action. Local bottoms tend to occur in conditions like this but the medium-term trend for Bitcoin still remains bearish. The long-term trend for Bitcoin is wildly bullish.

On-Chain College

Buying Bitcoin when on-chain metrics show a cooled off market is never a bad idea in the long run. That said, history tells us that there is a further drop coming.

On-Chain College

Bitcoin Net Realized Loss levels are comparable to the extreme losses during the 2022 bear market, with $13.6 Billion in Net Losses just 3 days ago. That said, the 2022 loss peak occurred 5 months before the actual bear market bottom was printed. Bottoms can take time to form.

On-Chain College

Bitcoin is now officially under the green band of the Mayer Multiple Z-Score, which is usually reserved for deep bear market corrections. It can still take months before finding a bottom but BTC is in a period in history typically reserved for the darkest days of bear markets.

On-Chain College

Bitcoin funding rates on Binance just hit their lowest level since October 2023. Leverage traders are in deep fear. Short-term relief rally odds just increased.

On-Chain College

An overview of my Bitcoin trading portfolio from 2022-now and quick thoughts on the bear market. Open to everyone (link below and in bio)

On-Chain College

Bitcoin's funding rates just flipped negative on Binance, which tells us shorts are crowded and fear is rising. A short-term relief bounce wouldn’t surprise me, but the broader BTC trend is still bearish.

On-Chain College

There's no other way to slice it, there is a lot of weakness in Bitcoin's price action. Bulls would like to see $80.5K quickly reclaimed but the bears are in full control over BTC.

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