ecoinometrics

ecoinometrics

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Data-Driven Bitcoin Macro Strategy For Financial Advisors, Professional & High-Net-Worth Investors

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The deeper Bitcoin’s drawdowns, the longer they last. There is a clear relationship between how far Bitcoin falls and how long it takes to recover. Historically, every additional 10% of drawdown adds roughly 80 days to the duration. At the current dept, that points to something on the order of 300 days. This doesn’t say where price goes next. But it does tell you what kind of time horizon you are dealing with in this regime.

Bitcoin ETF demand is finally showing signs of life. Since the start of March, spot Bitcoin ETFs have already absorbed roughly +18K BTC. That is a sharp break from the previous four months, all of which ended in net outflows. It does not mean the recovery is confirmed yet. But if this pace holds through the rest of the month, it would support the bullish scenario from our ETF flow simulations and strengthen the case that Bitcoin is building a base.

Bitcoin ETF demand just flipped back into positive territory. After months of persistent outflows, 30-day rolling Bitcoin ETF flows have turned positive again. This is the first meaningful demand breakout since the bear market began in November. If inflows persist, it could mark the early stages of demand stabilization for Bitcoin.

While Bitcoin drifts in a bear market, Strategy is buying faster than ever. Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings have surged to new highs, and the steepening slope shows that accumulation has accelerated during the current downturn, not slowed. For long-term buyers with conviction, bear markets are when positioning happens.

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