ecoinometrics

ecoinometrics

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Data-Driven Bitcoin Macro Strategy For Financial Advisors, Professional & High-Net-Worth Investors

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Bitcoin ETF flows are stalling right as BTC tests its 200-day moving average. ~17K BTC in net ETF outflows over the last 8 days. That does not kill the broader recovery trend yet. But it does suggest investors are becoming more cautious as inflation and bond yields move higher.

Bitcoin went through: • the 2022 bear market • the 2024 bull market • and the latest correction …while keeping volatility broadly in line with major tech stocks. Since late 2022, Bitcoin has even traded with lower volatility than Nvidia at times. Bitcoin is no longer behaving like a market outlier.

Bitcoin is improving. But after a 50% drawdown, being ~40% below the all-time high is still early in the recovery process. Recoveries from drawdowns of this size take time.

Strategy is accelerating Bitcoin accumulation again. The pace looks a lot like late 2024 but this time it’s happening in a bear market. It adds a steady source of demand right as ETF flows are turning higher. Quietly, the demand side is getting stronger.

Bitcoin is getting closer to a key level. Price is rising, but the long-term trend is still negative. Historically, this kind of setup resolves with a break in one direction. A confirmed move above the 200-day average would mark a real shift. Right now, we’re not there yet. Flows are improving, price is recovering but the trend hasn’t flipped. Watch the level.

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