ecoinometrics

ecoinometrics

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Data-Driven Bitcoin Macro Strategy For Financial Advisors, Professional & High-Net-Worth Investors

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Bitcoin's recovery just lost one of its most important sources of support. A few weeks ago, Bitcoin ETF holdings were close to fully recovering the drawdown that started in October. This week's outflows changed that. Institutional demand is weakening again, putting the recovery trend under pressure.

Bitcoin ETF flows are stalling right as BTC tests its 200-day moving average. ~17K BTC in net ETF outflows over the last 8 days. That does not kill the broader recovery trend yet. But it does suggest investors are becoming more cautious as inflation and bond yields move higher.

Bitcoin went through: • the 2022 bear market • the 2024 bull market • and the latest correction …while keeping volatility broadly in line with major tech stocks. Since late 2022, Bitcoin has even traded with lower volatility than Nvidia at times. Bitcoin is no longer behaving like a market outlier.

Bitcoin is improving. But after a 50% drawdown, being ~40% below the all-time high is still early in the recovery process. Recoveries from drawdowns of this size take time.

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