The Kobeissi Letter

The Kobeissi Letter

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Official X account for The Kobeissi Letter, an industry leading commentary on the global capital markets. Email us: support@thekobeissiletter.com

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The Kobeissi Letter

BREAKING: The inflation-adjusted average starting salary for college graduates is down -8% YoY, to ~$54,500, the lowest in at least 6 years. This marks the 4th consecutive annual decline. Salaries have plummeted -24% in real terms since the ~$71,000 peak seen in 2021. This comes as graduates are being pushed into lower-paying roles that often have little to do with their degree. The % of recent graduates whose first job aligns with their field of study has fallen from 26% for the 2022 cohort to 20% for the 2025 cohort. Young Americans are unable to find jobs.

The Kobeissi Letter

BREAKING: The Chinese Yuan has strengthened to 6.91 against the US Dollar, the strongest since May 2023. The Yuan is now on track for its 7th consecutive monthly gain, the longest streak since 2020-2021, up+5% since 2025. It has also been the 3rd-best-performing currency in Asia since September. The most recent move comes after Chinese regulators advised banks to limit purchases of US Treasuries and instructed those with high exposure to pare down positions. China is benefiting from the US Dollar's weakness.

The Kobeissi Letter

The short US bond trade is very crowded: Short interest in the popular Treasury bond-tracking ETF, $TLT, is up to a record 150.5 million shares. This is 10 TIMES above levels seen in March 2023, which stood at ~15 million shares. Short interest has TRIPLED since 2024 despite the $TLT price remaining flat over this period. Long-term Treasuries have been in a bear market for nearly 6 years now. Since April 2020, $TLT has declined -40%, with the biggest drawdown reaching -47% in October 2023. Long-term bonds are more hated than ever.

The Kobeissi Letter

Used car prices are surging again: Wholesale used vehicle prices rose +2.4% MoM and +2.4% YoY in January, to the highest since September 2023. This is well above the long-term average monthly decline of -0.2%. Non-EVs led the increase at +2.2% YoY, followed by luxury at +1.6% and EVs at +0.8%. This comes as wholesale supply dropped -5.1 days MoM, to 26.6 days. At the same time, sales conversion, or the percentage of vehicles sold at auction, surged +6.5 percentage points MoM to 60.7%, +3.2 percentage points above the 3-year average, indicating rising demand. With tax refund season expected to set a record, demand for used vehicles could push prices even higher. Used car inflation is heating up.

The Kobeissi Letter

BREAKING: US stocks extend gains to a new high of the day, with the Nasdaq 100 now up +1%. The S&P 500 is now 30 points away from a record high.

The Kobeissi Letter

BREAKING: Total consumer credit surged +$24 billion in December, to a record $5.11 trillion. This marks the biggest monthly increase of 2025 and the largest since 2023. Revolving credit, which includes credit cards, jumped +$13.8 billion, to $1.33 trillion, the highest since November 2022. This was also the largest monthly increase since 2023. Non-revolving credit, mainly auto and student loans, soared +$10.2 billion, to a record $3.78 trillion. Meanwhile, the average credit card interest rate remains elevated at 22.2%, near its all-time high of 23.4%, despite the Fed slashing rates by 175 bps since September 2024. Americans are "fighting" surging prices with more debt.

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