Recently, Bitcoin and gold have diverged dramatically: gold has surged, repeatedly hitting new highs (reaching as high as $5,600/ounce, now hovering between $4,900 and $5,000, with a projected increase of over 60-70% by 2025-26), while Bitcoin has fallen from its 2025 high (approximately $120,000-$126,000) and is currently fluctuating between $70,000 and $89,000, even showing a slight decline or remaining flat this year, down more than 30-40% from its peak. The BTC/Gold ratio has fallen to a historic low (approximately 13-18 ounces of Bitcoin can be exchanged for 1 ounce of gold), and gold's market capitalization far surpasses Bitcoin's (35 trillion+ vs. BTC 1.4-1.7 trillion).
This divergence between "real gold reaping the benefits while digital gold suffers the blows" has led many in the crypto to exclaim that the narrative has "collapsed." However, the logic is actually quite clear: the macro environment is characterized by risk-off and a surge in uncertainty (geopolitical friction, hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve, the shadow of Trump's tariffs, sticky inflation, and central banks' massive gold purchases). Gold has perfectly benefited from the safe-haven advantage; Bitcoin, on the other hand, has exposed its "high-beta risk asset" attributes, acting like a larger version of Nasdaq, and was first hit by leveraged liquidations and a market crash.
Short-term core drivers comparison:
• Gold: Central banks are increasing their holdings (over 1,000 tons globally per year, with China/BRICS leading the way), making it a top choice for safe-haven assets and inflation hedges, and its volatility once surpassed that of Bitcoin (reaching a new high since 2008), thus becoming a new "high-beta speculative asset".
• Bitcoin: It falls first when ETFs experience outflows and risk appetite declines, without any independent catalysts; its correlation turns negative (BTC/Gold is around -0.2), and it is often used as a source of cash to reduce holdings when gold leads the market.
Each has its own advantages:
• Gold (the veteran defender): Millennial consensus + physically non-confiscable, preferred central bank reserve, low volatility (15% annualized return vs. BTC 70%), the ultimate shield against geopolitical/sovereign risks. Currently, it's the clear winner.
• Bitcoin (Rising Star): Absolutely scarce (21 million hard cap + halving supply <1%), 24/7 global instant transfer, borderless, programmable (DeFi/Layer2), dominated by younger generations and tech enthusiasts. High long-term returns (213x over the past 12 years vs. several times that of gold), but short-term volatility correlates with risky assets.
• Complementary, not substitutive: Reports from Fidelity and JPM indicate a long-term, mild positive correlation (or even a period of negative correlation with cyclical shifts), with gold often leading and then BTC following suit. History repeats itself (in 2020, gold hit a new high first, followed by a surge in BTC). BTC's market capitalization is only 4-5% of gold's, meaning even small adjustments by institutions can have significant upside potential.
What's your opinion? Should you continue to go all in on gold and wait for its "final dip," or should you accumulate BTC at lower prices and bet on a catch-up rally?
