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Bill The Investor
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Co-founder of DeCentralized VC @MCNVentures; No paid promotion; 刻剑派、躺平派及吃瓜派三派掌门; 不接受任何付费广告;没有任何付费群; #bitcoin 🇺🇦
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Bill The Investor
Why do seasoned investors always manage to exit with profits, while others are wiped out? It all comes down to knowing where to draw your "cut-off line." Come with me, and I'll reveal the secret. Many mistakenly believe the market is a contest of wisdom and skill, spending their days studying candlestick charts, strategies, and AI signals, neglecting the most crucial point: losses aren't scary; what's scary is stubbornly holding on. Profit and loss are essentially a game of probability, and seasoned investors truly win through their respect for risk and self-discipline. Their "cut-off line" isn't a number they came up with on a whim, but rather lessons learned from countless mistakes. Novices always think they can recover by waiting, but veterans have already set their bottom line and never hesitate to cut their losses. You'll find they never gamble on low-probability, yet fatal, miracles, even if ridiculed for being "not greedy enough" or "missing out on big market moves," they don't care. Because in this market, survival is paramount. Often, the more seemingly shrewd a retail investor is, the more obsessed they are with proving themselves right. On the contrary, those who face losses with equanimity and are willing to admit defeat are the ones who survive longer. The data has already proven this: those who survive a cycle are mostly cowardly "cowards" who fear death. Now it's your turn. Ask yourself: if the market crashes by 20% tomorrow, can you cut your losses without hesitation? Or are you still fantasizing about a miraculous rebound? Stop believing in the myth of short-term riches. Real winners do only one thing: strictly adhere to their "cut-off line," even if this choice seems uncool or outdated. Now tell me, how did you set your "cut-off line"? Have you actually followed it? Do you dare to be like me, rejecting illusions and living with clarity?
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Bill The Investor
crypto"Kill Line": Are You Ready? In the crypto, the "kill line" is not essentially a candlestick pattern or a leveraged margin call. Rather, it's when you fail to balance three things: money management, position control, and basic living security. This leads to an unexpected event (flash crash, scam, hacker attack, bear market) that instantly wipes you out of being a "respectable player" and leaves you with nothing, plus your life collapsing. Just like the American middle class: losing a job or getting a serious illness, without emergency savings, without insurance, and defaulting on mortgage and car loan payments, they can slide from a large suburban house to homelessness on the streets within a few months. The crypto is even more ruthless, operating 24/7. A complete wipeout can happen in minutes, followed by debt, broken families, depression, and even more extreme consequences. 2025 was a bloody year: a flash crash in October liquidated $19 billion worth of Altcoin holdings, monthly sell-offs from unlocked altcoins, 84% of new coins falling below their initial offering price, hackers hijacking centralized exchanges, and retail investors slowly grinding away their "long-term holding" positions until they lost everything. Countless people poured their living expenses, retirement savings, and borrowed money into the market, failing to set aside a six-month cash buffer, diversify their positions, or buy insurance, thinking "this time will be different." A black swan event triggered a chain reaction: money gone → borrowing to cover losses → owing high-interest loans → job loss due to distraction → defaulting on mortgages → failed life restart. Remember: the crypto has no social security net, no regulatory safety net. If you truly want to play the long game, don't push your resources to the brink—maximum 20-30% of your total assets into the market, 50% in cash/USDT for emergencies, no more than 10% for any single cryptocurrency, never touch your living expenses, regularly review your positions and set stop-loss orders, buy real-world insurance, and never borrow money to play leveraged games. A rational balance is key to avoiding being wiped out. Otherwise, you could be the next victim.
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By the end of 2025, the integration of AI and cryptocurrency has moved from hype to tangible infrastructure transformation. The explosive growth in the number of AI agents, the surge in demand for decentralized computing, and the automation upgrades in DeFi—these are not science fiction, but current opportunities. If you are a crypto professional (trader, developer, founder, researcher), stop passively watching. The AI era won't replace you, but rather amplify your capabilities. The question is: are you ready to embrace it? ### My straightforward advice (based on current market trends): 1. **Start learning now, don't wait for the perfect moment.** AI tools are incredibly easy to use: practice daily with Grok, Claude, or open-source models. Learn prompt engineering, basic machine learning concepts, and ZKML (zero-knowledge machine learning). In 2025, those who can't use AI will be as behind as those who couldn't use on-chain tools in 2017. I recommend starting with a Bittensor subnet or Virtuals Protocol and building a simple agent for testing. 2. **Trading Side: From Manual to Agent-Driven** Traditional manual trading is dead. AI agents can perform real-time sentiment analysis, anomaly detection, and yield optimization. Try co-pilots like GriffinAI or HeyElsa to assist decision-making first, then gradually delegate execution. Don't blindly trust "autopilot"; use it as a "co-pilot"—to help you filter noise and discover alpha. By 2025, AI agents managing over 10% of DeFi will be a liability; those lagging behind will only be left behind. 3. **Developers/Founders: Focus on Real Infrastructure** Hottest sectors: AI agent platforms (Virtuals, ai16z), DePIN computing (Render, http:/io.net, Grass), decentralized ML (Bittensor TAO). Don't chase pure narratives; focus on things with real-world use cases—such as verifiable agents (using ZK proofs of output), data markets, and privacy computing. Institutional funding is pouring in (over $5 billion in VC), and early-stage projects are seeing phenomenal returns. But remember: Solving pain points > Token speculation. 4. **Risk Management and Compliance: AI Can Help, But Don't Rely on It** Use AI to detect fraud, money laundering, and manipulation (Chainalysis + AI tools). But don't ignore regulation—MiCA in 2025 and new US policies make compliance a bottom line. AI misuse carries significant risks (hallucination leading to bad decisions); prioritize verifiable systems. 5. **New Opportunity Window: Proxy Economy + DePIN** Potential trillion-dollar scale: building proxy markets, GPU leasing, model tokenization. Solopreneurs can take off—prototype quickly using open-source frameworks and join accelerators (such as a16z crypto grants). High adoption rates in Asian markets (Singapore, South Korea); don't just focus on Europe and America. Overall: AI is transforming crypto from a "speculative game" into a "smart economy." Those who don't adapt will be eliminated; those who proactively integrate will lead. 2025 is the year of infrastructure; 2026 is the year of application explosion—it's not too late to act now. What about you? Which AI tools are you already using? Still waiting and seeing? Let's talk about your coping strategies.
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Bill The Investor
Analysis of Peter Thiel's Investment Roots and Future of Polymarket: As a Silicon Valley mogul, Thiel led a $70 million investment in Polymarket through Founders Fund in 2024, followed by nearly $200 million in additional funding in 2025, pushing its valuation to over $1 billion. The root lies in his core philosophy: "Freedom and democracy are incompatible." Thiel views democracy as inefficient and easily driven by emotions, while prediction markets like Polymarket, which aggregate accurate information through economic incentives, are superior to voting mechanisms. This aligns with his vision of "escaping politics": creating an unregulated "new space" through an encrypted platform, allowing markets to replace government decision-making and promoting a dynamic society dominated by elites. Critics accuse it of promoting a right-wing agenda and even allowing betting on sensitive events such as racial conflicts, but Thiel sees this as free expression. Polymarket's Future: By 2025, trading volume is projected to surge to $21.3 billion, with over 1.75 million users and a TVL exceeding 300 million, accounting for nearly half of the prediction market. Benefiting from CFTC deregulation, the US's return to the market, $2 billion investment from institutions like ICE, and sports/election events, the market is poised for growth. Looking ahead to 2026: Valuation could reach $12 billion, with potential $POLY token airdrops, its own L2 chain, AI integration, and DeFi expansion driving a $1 trillion market size. However, challenges lie in regulation (such as the French investigation), manipulation risks, and ethical controversies. Thiel's investment is not just a gamble, but a pawn in reshaping the "post-democratic" world—where the market becomes the ultimate truth, and elite winners take all.
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