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✦独立研究员|数据分析|游走在财经学术和代码间的奇葩 ✦独立思考、拒绝人云亦云 #Binance 3亿用户+出入金安全+启程Web3就在币安:https://t.co/AM3qc8UQAf
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Two Foolish Approaches to Judging the Bottom The first is the flawed approach of rigidly adhering to a 4-year cycle, claiming we're in the early stages of a bear market. It's been four months since October 10th; can we really call that the beginning of a bear market?! The correct approach should consider technical indicators like EMA and RSI. Using EMA and RSI, we're currently in the middle of a bear market, similar to May-June 2022 and October 2018. This round's pace is clearly earlier and faster. Therefore, the remaining bear market period may not be too long. Looking only at the US cycle, after Warsh takes office in the second half of the year, things should be relatively more relaxed, and the bear market might end in June or July. However, considering Japan's monetary policy, we cannot rule out the possibility of the bear market continuing into September or October. The second flawed approach is calculating price retracements directly on the BTC price. When BTC reaches 1 million, can we directly calculate the retracement based on the price?! The correct approach to calculating retracements should be to calculate the retracement magnitude based on the upward movement. ! Previously, retracement calculations could be done directly at the highest price because the starting point was too low. From 2014 to 2017, BTC rose from 172 to 19665; 172 can be ignored. From 2018 to 2021, BTC rose from 3217 to 67617; 3217 can no longer be ignored. From 2022 to 2025, BTC rose from 15742 to 124773.5; 15742 really cannot be ignored. If we calculate a drop from 124773.5 to 60000, it's only a drop of about 52%, which might give the impression that BTC still has significant downside potential. However, if we calculate the price movement of BTC from 15742 to 124773.5, and then down to 60000: (124773.5-60000)/(124773.5-15742) = 59.4% Therefore, BTC has actually already fallen by about 60%, so the potential for further decline may not be significant. Of course, neither the analysis period nor the price retracement level confirms that 60000 is the bottom of this bear market. It's just that flawed analysis methods lead people to mistakenly believe that the bear market will last a long time and that the decline will be substantial. In fact, the earlier and faster start of this cycle means that the bear market may not be very long, and the potential for further decline in BTC may not be significant.
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This round is targeting seasoned investors! Because there aren't many new investors entering the market anymore, the biggest profits are going to the older investors. Those seasoned investors who believe in the four-year cycle got on board early, waiting for the big surge in 2025. Not greedy, heavily invest in BTC; greedy, heavily invest in altcoins; and leverage Ethereum. The result was that some, all, or even more of the money earned in the previous rounds were returned. Yi Lihua is the best example. But we shouldn't laugh at others. As long as the green hills remain, there's always hope for a chance to rebuild! After all, they've simply returned their past profits, they still have ammunition, and their influence has only grown. Are your green hills still there?
TVBee
@blockTVBee
02-04
经验主义是真害人啊！ 21年，没格局。 25年，痛定思痛，格局了一年。 还有多少人和蜂兄一样的？🥲
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