Jake Pahor

Jake Pahor

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DeFi creator & analyst | Documenting my quest for financial freedom | 🇦🇺 Account Executive @Coinstash_AU DM for Private Deals.

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This past week Tom and I sat down to figure out the right way to deploy capital into Bitcoin from any cycle position. We pulled 15 years of daily price and risk data. Built a backtest across 112 rolling windows covering every cycle phase the asset has been in. Used Claude to move fast on the analysis. The framework is sitting at $76K BTC right now and telling me what to do without me having to predict where price goes next. Full breakdown this week.

Yesterday: I wrote this rally is a counter-trend bounce, not a recovery. Today: BTC back inside the weekly bull market support band. From $79K to mid-$76Ks. Score never bought it. 36 through three weeks of "we're back." Don't call the top. Read the system.

Newsletter drops tonight. CSH Score is in the bottom 20% of readings since 2011. Even with BTC at $79K. Why a 14% rally doesn't change what the system is reading. And what to do whether the bull is back or this is a counter-trend bounce. Subscribers see it first.

Bitcoin's last three cycles all share a pattern. Initial drawdown of ~50% from peak → sideways consolidation → second catalyst → deeper low. 2018: 50% drop from $20K to $10K. Eight months of sideways. Then the November capitulation to $3K. 2022: 50% drop from $69K to $35K. Consolidation through spring. Then the LUNA collapse and FTX drove $15K. 2026: 50% drop from $126K to $60K. Three months into the sideways phase right now. The first drop is always the liquidity reset. The second drop, if it comes, needs a catalyst. A labor market break. An equity unwind. A credit event. Something exogenous. Absent one, the market probably grinds sideways through May and June. That's not bullish. It's a different kind of bearish. Manage the position accordingly.

The crypto industry has two kinds of product. Products for beginners who want to press a button and buy crypto. Products for traders who want to run bots, read charts, and execute strategies. Nothing for the person in between. The one who's held through a cycle, understands the four-year rhythm, and wants a system instead of signals. That's not a product gap. It's a position gap. An entire category of investor with no natural home. That's the space CSH sits in. Not because we wanted to be different. Because no one else was building there.

Is dollar cost averaging a good way to buy Bitcoin? For many investors generally, the answer is yes. The idea is simple. Take the total capital you want to invest, set a time frame, and break it into regular purchases, whether that's weekly or monthly. Weekly buys give you a more granular average price. Monthly buys mean fewer orders to manage. Either way, the discipline of investing consistently over time removes the pressure of trying to time the market. At Coinstash, the Auto Purchase feature makes this straightforward. Set up a recurring bank transfer, and every time it lands in your account, Coinstash automatically buys your chosen asset listed on the platform. @jake_pahor , Account Executive on our Private Clients team, walks through exactly how it works in this clip. Learn more at http:/coinstash.com.au/private Educational purposes only. Not financial or investment advice. Crypto involves risk. Always do your own research.

In 2024, a DM came in offering me serious money to post about a protocol I didn't understand. No disclaimer required. No accountability for what happened to the token after. It would have taken 30 minutes of my week. The money was real. The audience was there. Then I thought about who was following me at the time. Mostly people new to crypto who'd watched me call a few cycle patterns. Trusting me. If I took that money, some of them would lose theirs. I declined. Then I turned that moment into a product. CSH is the opposite of that DM. Same audience. Same space. Different answer to the same question: what happens to the person reading this? The system gives the power back to the investor. No shilled tokens. No sponsored takes. No conflicts. Just tools.

Everyone's asking ChatGPT "should I buy BTC?" It always tells you to consult a financial advisor. That's not a bug. It's the correct answer. AI can't tell you when to buy. But it can build you the system that does. Mine runs on Claude. Analyses risk. Sizes DCA. Tracks exits. The edge isn't asking AI for signals. It's using AI to build the framework that removes your need for signals.

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