Many think Polymarket came out of nowhere. But there's a history to prediction markets that goes back 100+ years.
For the U.S. presidential races from 1896 to 1924, The New York Times, Sun, and World provided readers daily quotes from prediction markets. There was often more trading volume on elections than on the stock market.
In the 1940s and 50s, libertarians wrote about the virtues of markets in bringing more information to the world. Hayek, Von Mises and Rothbard to name a few.
The 2000s and 2010s saw Intrade, Augur, and Predictit. Good efforts, but ultimately stifled.
In 2024, Kalshi sued the CFTC and won, making election markets legal for Americans to trade for the first time in 100 years. This is a big reason we're now seeing Robinhood, Coinbase, Draftkings, FanDuel, Underdog and more getting into the game.
Sports markets are now having a major moment and while sports are not why a lot of us love prediction markets, it's just a better product than a sportsbook and another chapter on the march to $100T+ trading volume and more information and truth.
