Altcoin Sherpa

Altcoin Sherpa

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Not Financial Advice / Crypto since 2016/ DYOR/ Alts & BTC http://youtube.com/c/Altcoinsherpa PFP: @NonPlayableCoin

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2025 token launches have mostly been a bloodbath Tracked 118 TGE launches this year and compared today’s FDV vs opening: • 84.7% (100/118) are below TGE valuation • This means ~4 out of 5 launches are below their opening valuation • Median token is -71% FDV (-67% MC) from launch • Only 15% are green vs TGE TGE isn’t early anymore reee Full data: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d...…

USDAI is partnering with @PayPal to integrate $PYUSD as a settlement asset for AI infrastructure financing. To support adoption, PayPal and USDAI are launching a customer incentive program offering 4.5% on up to $1 billion in USDai deposits, expected to begin in Jan 2026.

seems like everyone's waiting for $20 $HYPE, which makes me think we either completely front run that level or destroy it.

Building on an unlaunched chain is almost always a bad bet. It makes me automatically bearish on projects/people The implicit tradeoff is 'we're early so the ecosystem people will help us grow.' This attracts founders who expect the chain's team to do ALL legwork for them and hand them users on a silver platter. Meanwhile those ecosystem teams usually have no idea how to grow products and their main incentive is to attract teams that 'appear good' to boost the valuation of their underlying unlaunched asset and rely entirely on builders to acquire their users. Weird loop in which everyone is waiting for someone else to create momentum As a builder you also take on execution risk you can't control. Startups have very finite time. You can have everything built and still go to zero because the team you're building on took too long to launch and literally every single one of these launches gets delayed, putting a huge dent on your runway and making the odds that you go to zero much higher 'Community' should also be marked to zero for anything that hasn't launched. It was retarded to hear people saying 'Yeah, we're building on Berachain because of the community' in 2024 and it's even more retarded now. Stop depending on other people to do things

I miss that $ZEC run that we had 2 months ago

$HYPE Ultimately I think you see low $20s for this one. It's still the best project in crypto and imo it's superior to Lighter (I trade on both). But unlocks are unlocks + market environment has been quite bad for altcoins, even those as strong as HyperLiquid

$WET: Lots of tilt / poor execution on this one. I was in a position 2 days ago but got shaken out and almost bought yesterday but thought I could be patient on it given the setup. Didn't expect upbit to list this thing and spike 40%. I loved the area and obviously hindsight is 20/20. Onto the next one. twitter.com/AltcoinSherpa/stat...

those farming the 15 new perp dexes forget some of the history of these older ones. $dydx and $GMX were 2 former leaders that had decent market share before HyperLiquid. This space is extremely competitive and even though HL is going to stay #1, their overall market share is prob down from here. HL and Lighter are #1/#2; I think that the overall returns are going to be solidly weaker with each new dex that comes out. It could be extended, ostium, variational, edgeX and sooo many others...hard to say.

$HYPE is a great coin and having a pretty strong bounce relative to the market. I think that this ultimately still goes lower (ie. $23 or something) but there are going to be bounces along the way. IF btc bottoms here then maybe Hype will as well...but with unlocks + Lighter and

1 thing to remember for trading any TGE of a new project is that the project has ecosystem tokens to dump onto the market. It doesn't matter if team/investors are locked for 1 year; these big treasuries don't just come out of nowhere. They actively dump early. Don't ever hold a newly launched token from TGE for a long time, you will lose your money.

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