Heather Long

Heather Long

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@WashingtonPost economic columnist and Editorial Board member | Data aficionado | Email: Heather.long@washpost.com

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Friday shoutout to @joebrusuelas, chief economist at RSM, who has been doing some of the best analysis of the war in Iran's economic impact. The key question now is: When does the oil price shock trigger demand destruction? Joe has a great post on the 7 stages of demand destruction this week. I'll just add: Navy Federal saw spending holding up through March 31. Yes, gas spending and airfare spending surged in March, but overall spending was solid across all categories. We don't see much evidence *yet* of demand destruction. But we're watching... realeconomy.rsmus.com/american...…

Yikes. Almost every major industry group shed jobs in February. Private sector overall: -86,000 Hospitality -27,000 Healthcare -28,000 Manufacturing -12,000 Tranport/warehouse -11,000 Construction -11,000 Information -11,000 Federal gov't -10,000 Professional/biz -5,000 Mining -2,000 Social assistance +9,000 Finance +10,000 #jobs

Let me put this another way: The US economy has LOST jobs since April 2025. Total job gains since from May 2025 to February 2026 are now -19,000. Companies are not hiring in the face of all of these headwinds and uncertainty. And even healthcare is starting to slow down. twitter.com/byHeatherLong/stat...

The US is experiencing a jobless boom. Growth is strong, but there is a "hiring recession" with almost no hiring outside of healthcare and hospitality. 2025 was the worst year for hiring outside of a recession since 2003. There was almost no hiring since April. December is often a decent month for hiring, so it's hard to view 50k jobs added in December as a pickup. The BLS also just revised October and November down by a combined -76,000. #jobs

Here's the key data: Hiring Hiring was anemic in November. The 3.2% hiring rate was one of the worst since the Great Recession era. The United States is in a hiring recession. Virtually no jobs added since April outside of healthcare. Both blue-collar and white-collar industries aren't hiring. And Americans are feeling it. Not only is it hard to find a job, wage growth is slowing.

Inflation came in lowest than expected in November. But it's hard to read too much into the data given how much the shutdown impacted data collection. Look at "Table A" in the inflation report. So much is missing...

The US economy is in a hiring recession. Almost no jobs have been added since April. Wage gains are slowing. 710,000 more people are unemployed now versus November 2024. November +64,000 jobs October -105,000 (impacted by shutdown) September +108,000 August -26,000 July +72,000 June -13,000 May +19,000 I believe it's a combination of tariff impacts, AI, and cost cutting. Americans are feeling it. #jobs

Summary of Fed Chair Powell today: 1) 25bps cut today. 2 more cuts likely by end of 2025 2) Fed cut b/c of "downside risks" to jobs 3) Powell said repeatedly this is "unusual situation" [his way of saying stagflation-lite] 4) Powell said GDP this year of 1.5% "or better." Fed leaders revised **up** their growth estimate 5) Powell tried to dodge all political questions, but did say the Fed is "open" to ways to "do better"

Fed Chair Powell on why a 25bps cut was needed today: "I think that downside risk is now a reality and there’s clearly more downside risk" to the labor market. He calls this a "quite unusual" situation. "It's not a bad economy," he says. "It's not incredibly obvious what to do." #Fed #jobs #inflation

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