Luke Gromen

Luke Gromen

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Founder & President, Forest for the Trees (FFTT). Author of "The Mr. X Interviews, Volumes I & II.” I never solicit via DM's. RT not endorsements.

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"Francis Scott Key Bridge will take two years longer than initially thought and will cost more than twice as much as initially thought, to rebuild." Take the "over" on both how long rebuilding the US grid & industrial base will cost, & how inflationary it will be.

If you maximize immigration, you… 1) Minimize wage growth for native-born workers, thereby minimizing bond yields, which… 2) Maximizes income inequality, corporate profit margins, Wash DC deficits, & Wall St bonus pools The K-shaped economy works til the pitchforks come out. twitter.com/LukeGromen/status/...

A story in two parts: Left - "US October budget deficit was the highest in history (higher than even Oct-2020 during COVID) despite record Oct Federal receipts & tariff income." Right - "US Regulators Relax Key Bank-Capital Rule Tied to Treasuries" -Bloomberg

If AI doesn’t work, it will risk recession, blowing out fiscal deficits into insufficient foreign UST demand. If AI works, it will undermine the U.S. fiscal position (~half of US Federal receipts come from employment), blowing out deficits into insufficient foreign UST demand.

According to today’s WSJ, AI-related investment accounts for half of GDP growth. A reversal would risk recession. We can’t afford to go backwards.

Will more Fed rate cuts increase US electrical grid capacity instantly? Can the Fed QE grid capacity, engineers, and skilled trades into existence instantly? No?

🧵: The US will not be able to reshore, rebuild its grid, & will lose the AI race & great power competition v. China unless US skilled trades & engineers receive positive real wage growth v. essentials like housing, healthcare, college, etc. The US will lose if👇continues. 1/

Only crash that fixes that is not a crash in stocks. If you want to stop the inflation, you have to stop the deficits. If you want to stop the deficits, you have to stop the spending. If you want to stop the spending, there's only one thing you can cut that matters:

It isn't a "debasement trade"...it's a "debasement trend." What's the difference? In EM's with fiscal problems, you do not "sell the rip" in gold and BTC; you "buy the dip." Thanks for having me on @Bankless again, guys!

LIVE NOW - “The Debasement Trade” - Luke Gromen on Gold, Bitcoin & The 100 Year Reset @LukeGromen makes the case that “debasement” isn’t a trade, it’s the new regime. We unpack: - why assets look strong in dollars yet stagnate in gold/Bitcoin terms - the global reserves shift

A "pet rock" should not outperform equities long-term in an economy broadly engaged in positive economic value-added activities. A "pet rock" should absolutely outperform equities long-term in an economy broadly engaged in debt-fueled financial engineering to drive returns. twitter.com/LukeGromen/status/...

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