Joy Lou

Joy Lou

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Partner@Cycle Capital#No financial advice. 不作投资建议。

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I haven't known what to write for a long time because AI is far superior to me. I asked my friend Gemini a question: how does the significant expansion of applications affect the price of memory modules? After he asked if this approach to the problem was feasible, I wrote this article.

"Trend Research: Beyond Paradigms in 2026, WLFI Ushers in a New Era of Financial Ecosystem" by Trend Research | _2024111120230_

The good news for cryptocurrencies is that they've already fallen significantly; the bad news is that there's not much good news yet. The September non-farm payroll data will be released tonight, but it will have almost no impact on the market. The November jobs report won't be released until December 16th. In between, there's Thanksgiving on the 27th, Black Friday on the 28th, and the entire month of December is the tax season. The September and October data from the job openings and labor mobility surveys will also be released together on the 9th. The FOMC data will be released on the 9th and 10th, and the interest rate decision will be on the 11th.

““Buying Frenzy” Becomes Consensus: ETH Market Capitalization Will Surpass BTC in the Long Term” by Trend Research trendresearch.medium.com/buyin...…

“Trend Research: ‘Buy now’ becomes consensus, ETH market capitalization will surpass BTC in the long term” by Trend Research trendresearch.medium.com/trend...…

When RWA became popular, the scale of stablecoins expanded rapidly, and DeFi began to flourish, the biggest problem of BTC was the lack of infrastructure to support the stablecoin ecosystem. This year, the total scale of US dollar stablecoins increased from 190 billion to 264.1 billion, which is not a big increase. However, the TVL of major DeFi protocols doubled, including but not limited to AAVE, Pendle, Curve, Hyperliquiqui, Ena, Lido, Uniswap, etc. Ethereum's deflation is expected in the future.

但是以太坊这轮的主要两个叙事和一个基本面，叙事是稳定币和RWA，基本面是无限宽松和降息周期开始，资产泡沫化开启，叙事都还完全没有开始，只在法案这一步。当稳定币市值接近比特币，通胀叙事甚至都有可能从比特币转向以太坊；泡沫化的初期，有估值的资产涨不过没有估值的资产，从周五的盘面也看出来 x.com/joylou1209/sta…

However, the two main narratives and one fundamental of Ethereum this time are stablecoins and RWAs. The fundamentals are the beginning of an unlimited easing and interest rate cut cycle, and the asset bubble has begun. The narrative has not yet begun, and it is only at the stage of the bill. When the market value of stablecoins approaches that of Bitcoin, the inflation narrative may even shift from Bitcoin to Ethereum. In the early stages of the bubble, the valued assets cannot rise as much as the unvalued assets, which can also be seen from Friday's market.

比特币这一轮上涨有两个最大的动因和一个基本面，一个是ETF叙事，一个是收储叙事，伴随着通胀预期和美元放水周期，但是这两个动因都基本告一段落了，在财政中性的前提下，收储也很难进一步落实，鲍威尔上周五的讲话预示了通胀风险事实上没有就业风险大，侧面也说明对cpi的担忧也进一步下滑。

There are two biggest motivations and one fundamental factor for this round of Bitcoin's rise. One is the ETF narrative, and the other is the reserve purchase narrative, accompanied by inflation expectations and the US dollar flooding cycle. However, these two motivations have basically come to an end. Under the premise of fiscal neutrality, reserve purchases are also difficult to implement further. Powell's speech last Friday indicated that the inflation risk is actually not as big as the employment risk, which also indirectly shows that concerns about CPI have further declined.

I predict Ethereum will reach 14,000-15,000 in the second or third quarter of next year. It's currently in the first phase of pure speculation. Around 7,000, it will enter the phase of real-world RWA implementation and DeFi application integration. There may be a 20%-30% pullback in between, depending on macroeconomic events or black swan events. If the Fed cuts interest rates in September, the market could continue to rise. A 50bp cut in September could see the first peak before October. If it doesn't, there will be adjustments, but more liquidity will be released later.

Tom Lee's connections are really something special. BMNR's trading volume tripled yesterday. It is estimated that he can buy about 2 billion US dollars of ETH this month.

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