Brad Setser

Brad Setser

Follow

CFR senior fellow. Views are my own. Retweets are not endorsements. Writes on sovereign debt and capital flows.

Posts

Oil is a almost perfectly fungible commodity* with a single global price ... except during periods of stress Via JP's Natasha Kaneva, the spread between North Atlantic sweet light and the oil Asia normally buys has reached extreme levels * setting price differentials for different grades of cruda aside 1/2

Crazy how much of the global (goods) trade surplus is in East Asia now. Even with the "fake" Irish pharma surplus, the euro area is dwarfed 1/

Japan is an interesting case in a lot of ways. It has a ton of domestic debt (and significant domestic financial assets) which generates heated concerns about its solvency/ ability to manage higher rates. But it is also a massive global creditor -- 1/

"The PIF’s portfolio of megaprojects is also being reviewed" The balance of payments break even is, in the end, undefeated ... the Saudis need $90-100 oil to avoid persistent current account deficits, and that is nowhere to be seen 1/2 twitter.com/Brad_Setser/status...

A graph illustrating just how insane the post real estate bubble popping Chinese investment boom in manufacturing has been. Cue the coming hangover -- in China, and globally twitter.com/Brad_Setser/status...

I remember a time when many Republicans on the Hill viewed the Agencies retained portfolio (Agency MBS and even some private label MBS that they held on their own balance sheet) as the root of most financial evil, and the source of the financial crisis ... twitter.com/Brad_Setser/status...

Some serious chart jealousy here @Rory_Johnston does consistently great work

Europe's imports from China dipped a bit in August, but the broad trend is clear -- trade has moved massively in China's favor over the last five years. (Europe actually needs demand from China ... not just supply) 1/

Stepping back a bit -- the rise in China's goods surplus over the last 2 years is largely a function of a swing in its bilateral balance with the emerging world (lower commodity prices, but also more exports -- including parts for export to the US) 7/

Building out capacity (including refining capacity) for rare earths/ other critical minerals should indeed by a real priority now, and the risk of weaponization of this this and other supply chains should have been taken more seriously in the past. But it won't be easy 1/

Why can't the US do a Project Warp Speed for rare earth minerals? @SecretaryBurgum - This seems like a top priority. Can we get this done my Q2 2026?

Loading..